Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint: Don't overlook speedy US filly

Followers of The AntePoster will recall we put up Patrick Biancone's US raider Lennilu for the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot back in June. It was a losing wager (recommended at 8/1, win-only, finished third at 11/2), but the filly ran very well. She was beaten 1.75 lengths by True Love (subsquent G1 winner) and nosed out of 2nd by the outsider Flowerhead.

But for what it's worth (which is obviously nothing in terms of what returned to the wallet), Lennilu performed very creditably for a filly who had flown thousands of miles to encounter an alien style of racing. US sprints are invariably run around a bend, and this filly was the first horse home in her central group over Ascot's straight course, with the field having split into three.

Lennilu has since won twice in the US, taking her overall record to four wins from five runs. Note that she remains unbeaten around a bend. More compellingly, her last run (not contained in the Racing Post database, incidentally) was her best yet. She blitzed the field in the listed Hollywood Beach Stakes at Gulfstream, a race that saw her chase down 6/4 favourite Monster and pull away for a 1.75-length victory, breaking the 55-second mark in the process.

For this she was assigned an 85 Beyer speed figure. This is significantly higher than the 77 awarded to Wesley Ward's Schwarzenegger for that colt's most recent run, following which he has shortened into favouritism in the betting for this race (5/1). It is also a higher Beyer than any other US turf sprinter pointed here. In short, we reckon she has a clear claim to be the best of the Americans.

What about the European challenge? While the head-to-head in the seven years of this race's existence has been fairly even, with the US taking four runnings to Europe's three, the Anglo-Irish contingent claimed the first four places in last year's edition, which was also held at Del Mar.

But the caveat to be noted when looking at the 2024 race is that last year's raiders were an awesomely strong team in hindsight, including subsequent Group 1 winners Arizona Blaze and Big Mojo (for all that the winner was complete outsider Magnum Force). There were only four American horses running and only one was remoted fancied: the host nation's squad started at prices of 8/1 (placed), 27/1 (nowhere), 55/1 (nowhere) and 93/1 (nowhere).

We are sceptical about the strength of the European challenge this year, particularly as there are considerable doubts over the participation of many of the top horses in the betting. In market order:

- Charles Darwin (6/1): The winner of the G2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot has long been favourite for this race in antepost markets, but nothing has been heard about him at all recently and he has drifted out markedly in recent weeks. The son of No Nay Never has not seen a racecourse since that Ascot victory, Aidan O'Brien hasn't mentioned this colt's name when referring to his Breeders Cup possibles in recent weeks, and he doesn't appear on the Juvenile Turf Sprint "Contenders" list on the official Breeders Cup website. We would be amazed to see him turn up.

-True Love (6/1): This filly clearly stands out of the more likely Anglo-Irish raiders. But her leap forward in form has come over six furlongs recently, and the AntePoster is doubtful that five furlongs around a bend is going to see this Group-1-winning filly at her best. Like the Queen Mary at Ascot, that Group 1 win was over a straight track at Newmarket (Cheveley Park, six furlongs), where she had plenty of time to move into a winning position. By contrast, Del Mar's sharp 5 furlongs with its tight turns will be a whole different ball game. To add to the doubts, her participation remains somewhat hazy: connections were "leaning" towards this shorter race a week ago, yet the Juvenile Fillies Turf seemed a possible alternative. In the meantime, stablemate Mission Central has throw his hat in the ring for this sprint race by winning the juvenile sprint on Champions Day at Ascot, and Precise has been mentioned as a possible for the JFT. - Wise Approach (6/1): When interviewed about his potential Breeders Cup squad this weekend, Appleby mentioned only Military Code (see below) in connection with this race. Wise Approach doesn't appear on the "Contenders" list on official Breeders Cup website, and is almost certainly not headed to Del Mar.

- Havana Anna: Good second to True Love in the Cheveley Park over six furlongs. Definitely pointed here. Fairly priced at 7/1.

- Mission Central (8/1): Good winner of the new conditions race on Champions Day at Ascot. He's got bundles of potential and the turnaround of 13 days should be fine for a sprinter, but he's been well beaten in his only two attempts over five furlongs and faces quite a stiff task here.

- Military Code (10/1): The best performances of Godolphin's likely contender have been two runner-up placings in listed races. That said, his most recent defeat was franked when the winner won a G2 on her next start, and it should be noted that he dwelt at the start in that clash. - Power Blue (12/1): Conqueror of True Love over six furlongs in the G1 Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh back in early August. Was reported to be headed to the Breeders Cup in the aftermath of that race, but trainer Adrian Murray indicated that the longer Juvenile Turf would be the preference. No newsflow since then, and has been removed from most bookmakers' lists (also doesn't appear on the "Contenders" list on official Breeders Cup website).

In summary, we see Lennilu as the top win prospect for the home side. Unbeaten round a bend, with an easy win last time out in a fast time, we consider her to be badly mispriced at 12/1 in view of a European raiding party that does not appear stellar, as the biggest two names of all (Charles Darwin and Wise Approach) look almost certain not to travel.

As we see it, David Aragona's quote of 5/1 for this filly on the Daily Racing Form's predictive morning line looks more in tune with reality, and even most Anglo-Irish bookmakers are offering only 8/1, much shorter than the standout price available with some of the big houses.

We'll play her each way, as there's still a healthy 70% profit on the overall investment if finishes second or third. That appeals.

Recommendation: Back Lennilu each-way at 12/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power, or Skybet to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Del Mar on 31 October.