Arc trial thoughts as first antepost markets form

As if Irish Champions weekend and the St Leger meeting weren’t enough for the antepost punter, Longchamp steps into the (shared) spotlight on Sunday with its traditional three Arc trials – the Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares, the Prix Foy for the older males, and the Prix Niel for the three-year-old colts. William Hill and Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook have now priced these up, and The Anteposter has a few initial thoughts:

Prix Foy: A small field headed by Continuous, who is odds on (best 4/5). Ballydoyle have a history of pulling out their entrants for these trials shortly after the first declarations, and Continuous stands head and shoulders above the competition as the most withdrawn horse in training this season. He is also entered for two races in Ireland at the weekend. The Anteposter has heard the rumour that the Irish St Leger is the plan, despite also having Kyprios in that race. While that does not make a great deal of sense, the possibility of his withdrawal makes e/w plays on Feed The Flame and Iresine (both 5-1) an exciting high-risk play, as in the event of the favourite’s withdrawal these positions would offer stunning value in a four-horse race.

Prix Niel: There is a distinct possibility that the top two in the market prefer softer ground than they will encounter on Sunday. This makes Delius extremely appealing at 9/2 with Paddy Power, who will honour the three places if (or more likely, when) this race cuts up. The bold might want to give Ambiente Friendly another chance on the same logic, but he was dreadful at York, so e/w betting does not appeal at all. Still, in all likelihood he gets his ground.

Prix Vermeille: A really strong, deep field. Wow. There are significant differences between the two big bookmakers pricing this up, with Paddy Power considering Bluestocking a 7/4 shot but William Hill happy to offer 4-1, for example. There are other major price differences too, so now is the time to explore these markets for the horse you like. It’s too tricky a puzzle for the Anteposter to solve, with some “murk” over who will, and who will not, actually turn up.  If they all do, it’s the fillies’ race of the season.