Ascot Champion Fillies & Mares: Shoot for Dickensian moon at 100/1

Champions Day is only a week or so away and there's a fair amount of clarity over the likely fields for most of the marquee races. Ballydoyle's decision on the respective destinations of Gstaad and Constitution River aside, the main players of QEII look pretty much set bar the key Godolphin supplement decision on Talk of New York. The Long Distance Cup has similar clarity but with a more certain supplement (Highwayman), while the Champions Stakes picture is also becoming fairly clear, the principal doubts here concerning the participation of the big two (Ombudsman and Calandagan) if the weather picture were to change.

The Champion Sprint Stakes likewise looks a relatively predictable line-up, with the main unknown being whether Comanche Brave takes up this engagement. For what it's worth, we expect him to go straight to the Breeders Cup two weeks later, but a continuing dry forecast could yet tempt connections to come here – either instead of Keeneland or as an additional stop on the way.

The only race that comes with more doubts than clarity is the Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes, where no less than eight of the leading prospects in the betting raced over 12 furlongs or further only last Sunday. This may prompt connections to hold fire where Ascot is concerned. Much of the top of the market comes out of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Kalpana, Thundering On, Diamond Necklace, Minnie Hauk), while four others prominent in the betting have an extra two furlongs in their legs thanks to their participation in the Prix de Royallieu (Fairy Glen, Sunly, Amelia Earhart, Waardah).

So some of these horses will not come (ground, other options, trainer concern over backing up so quickly), while some of those that do turn up might not run to their best. Not all will underperform of course – market leader Kalpana obviously coped just fine last year – and in the last decade Magical, Wonderful Tonight, and Poptronic have likewise been successful at Ascot a fortnight after their Parisian exertions.

But there have been flops in recent years too: both Sea La Rosa and Grateful won the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp only to run dismally at Ascot a fortnight later.

Given this combination of potential non-runners and underperformers, we are interested in a pair of fresh legs with plenty of talent. And it so happens that the filly on which our gaze has landed – Ralph Beckett's Tattycoram – is trading at a whopping 100/1.

We simply can't leave that price on the table.

Named after a character from Charles Dickens' Victorian novel Little Dorrit, this daughter of Camelot is a very smart filly at her best. And even though her "form card" admittedly looks a bit of a mixed bag this season, even her supposedly "bad" runs do not actually look that bad to us on closer inspection.

So let's look at her four runs this year: May 1, Goodwood, listed Daisy Warwick Fillies Stakes: Here she comfortably beat Coeadana. That horse is trading at 25/1 for the Fillies & Mares having since beaten Inis Mor;

4 July, Newmarket, G2 Yorkshire Oaks: Thrashed Tiffany by 4.5 lengths. This was a startlingly good performance, as Sir Mark Prescott's filly is exceptionally consistent and has gone on from that defeat to win a Group 1 and a Group 2 (beating the reigning Breeders Cup Turf champ Ethical Diamond in the latter). Tiffany now heads to the Breeders Cup Turf herself. What's more, Tattycoram also impressed on the clock in the Yorkshire Oaks: according to both Timeform speed ratings and the Racing Post's Topspeed metric, the figure earned here puts her in the top quartile of this Fillies & Mares field;

20 August, York, G1 Yorkshire Oaks: Finished 5th of 9 to Kalpana. This was on the softest ground Tattycoram has yet faced (per Timeform) and she was beaten around six lengths. However, she still finished ahead of Johanna Walsh (16/1 for the F&M) and Inis Mor (25/1 for the F&M).

6 September, Longchamp, G1 Prix Vermeille: Finished 8th of 13 to Friendly Soul. In this race Tattycoram travelled prominently and surged into second place with two furlongs to go. She then faded in the final furlong. All the six fillies who raced forwardly behind the leader on that day (those placed 2nd to 7th four furlongs out) faded in the wake of the winner's punishing fractions, crossing the line in the last six places. Tattycoram fared the best of those and was beaten only 3.5 lengths: transpose that form to the Arc itself through the winner Friendly Soul and she would have finished only around a length behind the likes of Thundering On (8/1 for the F&M), Minnie Hauk (14/1 for the F&M) and Benvenuto Cellini. In the Vermeille itself she finished ahead of Sparan Nua (7/1 for the F&M).

Finally, it's worth pointing out that Tattycoram was kept in the Arc de Triomphe field after the first of last week's forfeit stages. That was probably just a "sighter" in case the field were to cut up (which it patently didn't), but it nonetheless indicates confidence that this filly belongs in Group 1 company.

In summary, unlike a whole host of the horses above her in the betting, Tattycoram comes here fresh, has demonstrated the ability to put in a huge performance, and has already beaten a clutch of the fillies trading a shorter price even on her "bad" runs. Last but not least, the stable has confirmed to The AntePoster this morning that the intention is to run, whereas many fillies in this market will not.

We are very realistic about the risk involved with this bet, and so should you be if following us in with a wager. For all that we believe this moon is worth shooting for, the balance of probability is that a bet on Tattycoram is more likely than not to be a losing one.

But that's all in the math, and then some: 100/1 is a simply astronomical price for the win part of a bet given a field in which almost no rival comes here without a question mark, and 20/1 for the place part of an e/w wager is just as appealing in our view. We have therefore played Tattycoram each-way.

There is a perhaps a case to be made for holding fire and hoping for e/w terms with a fourth-place payout in a week's time. Whether that extra place is offered will depend on the extent to which the field shrinks, but we think it likely.

However, whether or not Tattycoram will be trading at anything like 100/1 after the 48-hour declaration stage on Thursday morning (the earliest point at which any extra place would apply) must be open to doubt. We'll play now.

Recommendation: Back Tattycoram each-way at 100/1 to win the Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot racecourse on Saturday 17 October. Price available with every bookmaker listed on Oddschecker except William Hill. Do not take their 66/1.

[Previously recommended for this race: Sparan Nua at 10/1]