Ascot Champion Stakes - Antepost Guide

Date of race: 19 October 2024                   Date of analysis: 14 October 2024

This document is an antepost analysis (updated after 5-day declarations) of the horses set to contest the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Ascot on Saturday 19 October. Please bear in mind the following points before reading this document.

• This market remains an antepost event, so non-runner risk is still important. Particular attention should therefore be paid to the “Chance of Running” below each horse, whereby one star implies that the horse has very little chance of turning up, five means running is a nigh certainty (bar injury).

• The “Price Appeal” section works on the same principle of 1-5 stars, but the key point to understand here is that the number of stars given is not an absolute assessment of the horse’s chance of winning but a relative assessment of their appeal as an antepost wager in view of the price at time of writing.

This guide has embedded obsolescence by its nature.  Over the last 72 hours of the antepost market, the participation probabilities and prices of the horses listed will change, and this will inevitably affect their appeal as a bet. Any wagering should therefore always take into account the latest information available.

Enjoy the read. If you would like a pdf download of this document, please use the following link:

Champion Stakes 5daydecs Final.pdf

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The AntePoster 14 October 2024

ECONOMICS (Tr. W Haggas)  |  Last 5 runs: 4-1111

One of the most exciting three-year-olds in Europe: stunning winner of G3 Dante Stakes in May, then comfortable winner of G2 Guillaume d’Ornano in August (second won G2 Prix Dollar on Arc Sunday). This served as a platform for his first Group 1 attempt, the Irish Champion Stakes, which he duly won from a peak-form Auguste Rodin and Irish Derby winner Los Angeles (franked form in Arc de Triomphe). What’s more, he showed battling qualities there to add to his already impressive armoury. Haggas was unusually bullish about his colt’s wellbeing after final piece of work, and as long as the ground doesn’t turn desperate he should have a massive chance.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
5/4	★★★★★	★★★

CALANDAGAN (Tr. F H Graffard)  |  Last 5 runs: 21112

Upward trajectory since being gelded at the end of his two-year-old season has been stellar: Parlayed two G3 victories at Longchamp in the spring into a demolition job in the King Edward Stakes at Royal Ascot, which he won by six lengths from a solid yardstick who subsequently finished close to high-class Ballydoyle pair Illinois and Angeles in the G2 Great Voltigeur. Most recent race was even more impressive, as he was the only horse to close from the back of the pack when running City of Troy to a length in the Juddmonte International at York (Arc winner Bluestocking back in fourth). Comes here with higher official rating than Economics as a result, but that younger rival may have more upside.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
2/1	★★★★★	★★★

LOS ANGELES (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 31143

Earmarked by powerhouse stable as a likely type for the Arc de Triomphe at an early stage, this colt has had a fine season: won Derby prep, third in Derby, won Irish Derby, won Great Voltigeur (carrying penalty), close-up fourth in Irish Champion Stakes (prep for Arc), and fine third in the Arc itself, having made the running there. Ideally appeals as a 12-furlong type as he is a grinder without a sizzling turn of foot, but very soft ground would work in his favour. The obvious negative would be the quick turnaround from his Longchamp exertions, and O’Brien will no doubt wait until the very last moment to make a final decision on his participation.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
7/1	★★★	★★

KING’S GAMBIT (Tr. H Charlton)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-1223

Decent but hardly eye-catching two-year-old who went into every observer’s notebook when blowing apart the field in the London Gold Cup, one of the most competitive spring handicaps. Has also run impressively in three group races since, being beaten less than a length by Jayarebe, Alflaila and Los Angeles respectively. Still lightly raced and evidently goes well fresh, so mid-season break no problem but has yet to race in a Group 1, and this one looks very daunting.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★	★★

IRESINE (Tr. J P Gauvin)  |  Last 5 runs: 19-141

The other gelding in the French raiding party, this son of Manduro has built up a remarkable CV, winning 15 of his 24 races, including four Group 2s and a Group 1. Hasn’t raced over this trip since the spring of last year (has won up to two miles) but took the 2023 Prix Ganay over just an extra half furlong from a small but stellar field that contained no less than four Group 1 winners. Ten furlongs would be the very minimum for him, but with the ground set to be challenging this extremely consistent sort is capable of providing a shock.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

LUXEMBOURG (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 40166

Stalwart of the middle-distance flat racing scene for several years now, having won a Group 1 in each of his four racing seasons. However, only win in last ten races was against a very weak field in the Coronation Cup back in June, and with no Ascot success on his CV he looks an unlikely winner of this. Stable newsflow has indicated that he may head stateside to the Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar, and this would appear an unlikely prep run with that race coming just two weeks later.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★	★★

HENRY LONGFELLOW (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs:  1-8243

Came into the season with high expectations, ranked behind only star stablemate City of Troy.  After a no-show on soft ground in the French 2,000 Guineas, he excelled in the St James Palace at Ascot (round course), where it took the top class Rosallion the length of the straight to reel him in. Has clearly regressed in his last two runs, however, and it remains to be seen if connections will put him up in trip for this race (also entered in QEII Stakes), for all that it should be well within his compass on breeding. Fascinating if he runs, but participation, form and ground doubts make him an impossible antepost fancy.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★	★★

ANMAAT (Tr. O Burrows)  |  Last 5 runs:  1-21-15

Shadwell colt with a terrific strike rate (8 wins from 14 runs) who was expected to continue to compete at the highest level after breaking his G1 duck at the first time of asking in the Prix d’Ispahan last spring. Injury then curtailed his 2023 season, however, and he wasn’t seen for 439 days until returning to win a G3 at Haydock in August. This duly resulted in his being sent off at 6/5 to reclaim his Prix Dollar crown (winner in 2022) at Longchamp on Arc weekend, but in the heat of that battle he found little under pressure and finished a well-beaten fifth. That was his first poor run for three years, but with a short turnaround there are major doubts over his participation here, let alone his win chances. That said, there’s no denying his back class.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★★	★★

AL RIFFA (Tr. J P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs:  46210

Group 1 winner at two (National Stakes) then confirmed his class at the age of three by running brilliant subsequent Arc winner Ace Impact to less than a length at Deauville. Top-class form has been on show this season too, most notably running City of Troy to a length in the Eclipse at Sandown before completely outclassing lesser rivals in a German Group 1. However, he proved a huge disappointment in his season-long target, the Arc de Triomphe, and with no reason given for that poor performance it would take a leap of faith to see him bounce back to peak form here after just two weeks.  Has the CV to pose a threat if he turns up, and although that’s an unknown he’s a big price.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★★	★★★

CONTENT (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 83210

Took a while to reach the top level as a two-year-old, finally winning a G3 comfortably before catching the eye as a fast-finishing fourth in the Breeders Turf Juvenile Fillies Turf (only a length behind Porta Fortuna). A similar pattern has been evident this season, with the marked improvement coming when stepped up to 12 furlongs: She was beaten less the length by You Got To Me in the Irish Oaks before then reversing the form in the Yorkshire Oaks, both races coming on good ground or faster. Bitterly disappointing when dropped to this trip in the Prix d’Opera on soft ground, however, so a repeat just 13 days later over the same trip on similar ground looks doomed to failure. Doubtful participant (also in Champion Fillies & Mares, may not run in either).

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★	★★

ROYAL RHYME (Tr. K R Burke)  |  Last 5 runs: 15467

A high-class performer on soft ground who was fifth in this race last year behind King of Steel. Hasn’t managed to place this year since winning on seasonal debut (soft ground) but also hasn’t had the ground he craves, and was only three lengths behind Economics in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown a month ago. This son of Lope de Vega should relish conditions at Ascot this weekend and there is a possibility that he can run a career best, for all that he will need to. Hugely overpriced.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

CONTINUOUS (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs:  5-5130

One of the stars of the 2023 flat season over middle distances, winning both the G2 Great Voltigeur and G1 St Leger most impressively before running an eye-catching sixth in the Arc de Triomphe (met trouble in running). Nothing has gone right for him this season, however, and while his Arc flop can be excused to some extent (dismal draw, hampered by fatally injured Haya Zark), ten furlongs for this gritty stayer looks completely the wrong setup, for all that options are running out for him this season.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★	★★

PERSICA (Tr. R Hannon)  |  Last 5 runs:  10131

Three-year-old by New Bay who has shown a gradual but clear trajectory of improvement this season, most recently taking the Doonside Cup (listed race) from a decent field. Goes on any ground and just possible he can continue to improve (albeit has had seven races this season), but that will be very much needed in the toughest race he has contested in his career to date. Likelihood of participation unknown.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★★	★★

SEE THE FIRE (Tr. A Balding)  |  Last 5 runs: 54213

Not far off the best of her sex as a two-year-old last year, coming second in the G2 May Hill and third in the G1 Fillies Mile. Struggled in her first three races this season (albeit all top-class G1 races, including taking on the likes of City of Troy), but impressive in her last three: close second to Opera Singer in the G1 Nassau Stakes (10 furlongs), comfortable winner of a G3 at York (9 furlongs), and battling third to Tamfana in the Sun Chariot when dropped back to a mile. Unclear if she will return to the fray so soon, and major concern that her best performances this year have been on top of the ground, but she does tick the class box.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★★	★★★

NASHWA (Tr. J&T Gosden)  |  Last 5 runs: 236-95

Very high-class mare (two Group 1 wins, three narrow defeats at that level) but now racking up a long losing streak. Took a long time to recover from a fruitless trip to Dubai in March but was deliberately rested with autumn campaign in mind. Very underwhelming return in G1 Sun Chariot, but that was predicted on fitness grounds, so considerable improvement is possible. Whether two weeks is enough to make the necessary quantum form leap over ten furlongs in soft ground is questionable. Also in QEII, so there are doubts over her participation.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★	★

NOVUS (Tr. G & J Moore)  |  Last 5 runs:  20541

Likeable four-year-old filly with an impressive strike rate, particularly on ground riding soft or worse (career figures of 1111241). However, she has never won above listed level and comes into this race as one of the lowest-rated horses in the field. Ran only eight days before this race, finishing 13th of 15 in a listed race at Newmarket.  Impossible to fancy.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
100/1	★★	★

HANS ANDERSEN (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 95908

Five-year-old with no Group 1 pretensions (most impressive win being a weak G3 as a three-year-old) but a seemingly permanent fixture in key English and Irish middle-distance Group 1 races this year, running six successive Group 1 races as a pacemaker for much classier stablemates. Has finished last in his last three races performing that role, and a most unlikely candidate to join the shock winners of this race in the past who were running as pacemakers.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
200/1	★★★★	★