Breeders Cup Classic: Three mercurial outsiders who could upset the apple cart

The clock counts down. In just ten days’ time, fans of top-level international horse racing will find out if City of Troy can translate his undoubted class to a different surface as he takes on the best dirt horses in the world in the Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar, California.

This article highlights three horses who have a big chance of outrunning their odds in an open race where there are doubts over every horse in the market for one reason or other. These are all each-way recommendations (“win and show” combination bet for our US readers), despite coming with risks attached. If they all finish out of the first three places, the bettor loses everything. If just one is placed, the outcome at the prices indicated is profit-neutral at worst. Anything else is a payday in one way or another.

The case for each horse below is just a “stripped-down summary”. For more in-depth analysis, see The AntePoster’s extensive guide to this race published on 21 October, which provides analysis of each horse and its appeal at the current prices available in the corresponding antepost/futures market.

Arthur’s Ride – forgiveness can pay (William Hill, 888, Ladbrokes, Coral, 25/1)

Still unexposed as the most lightly-raced horse in the field. No rival here has more impressive speed figures in his last three races. Huge odds explained by his big flop at odds-on last time – horses do that sometimes, and the market’s snarling recoil is exaggerated. Give him another chance.

Tapit Trice – a law unto himself (William Hill, 888, 25/1)

As likely to disappoint as impress. When he’s bad, he’s bad. Looks like he might be on the verge of fulfilling his undoubted talent, and top US jockey Irad Ortiz once again takes the mount. The AntePoster has no idea how he will decide to run on 2 November. But that risk is built into his price.

Derma Sotogake – Japanese “back class” (William Hill, 888, 50/1)

How can a horse who was a good second in this race last year be 50/1? In short, by running well below his best in his last few races. But he’s bounced back before. And when he does deliver, he’s very, very good. The pace dynamic of the prospective field works for him. 50/1 is an insult.

Click here for the AntePoster's guide to the BC Classic

Published 22/10/2024 10:55