Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf - Final Field Analysis

CINDERELLA’S DREAM (Tr. C Appleby)  |  Last 5 runs: 11711  |  Draw: 3 of 12

Shamardal filly whose very low-key two-year-old campaign resulted in short-priced victories on both starts at minor tracks Lingfield and Thirsk. Godolphin then took her off to the Meydan carnival for her first two runs of the season, where she impressed when taking a local prep for the Jumeirah 1,000 Guineas and then that race itself, although the quality of that race (only listed class) is best summarized by the fact that she started at a price of 1/20. She was then sent as Godolphin second string to the much stronger English 1,000 Guineas, where she lived up to her price of 12/1, finishing a middling seventh. Sent over the Atlantic for easier pickings, she has since won both the G1 Belmont Oaks and the G2 Saratoga Oaks with relative ease, but without necessarily achieving a great deal in doing so. The one standout caveat to that observation is that She Feels Pretty, 0.75 lengths behind Cinderella’s Dream at Belmont, went on to tear apart the G1 QEII Stakes at Keeneland two races later, beating Soprano by six lengths. First-time blinkers may explain plenty of that horse’s later improvement, however (represents quantum leap on all previous seasonal form), and overall this Godolphin filly has quite a lot to prove on the form book, for all that she is still slightly unexposed. Decent draw, though will need to show tactical speed to get a good position. 

Betting observations

Based on a comparison of peak ratings with her European rivals, Cinderella’s Dream does not deserve to be the lowest price. No betting appeal therefore, though that favouritism may hold given her connections and their stunning record in US Grade 1 races.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
3/1	4/1	★

CONTENT (Tr. A O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 32100  |  Draw: 6 of 12

Like a lot of O’Brien’s fillies, this three-year-old daughter of Galileo has been aggressively campaigned, running seven times as a two-year-old last year in a season that culminated in a G2 win in soft ground at Leopardstown and fourth place in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (caught the eye finishing fast from the rear). Her three-year-old season looked to be shaping in similarly progressive style in successive G1 races: Having finished down the field in the French 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes over a mile, she then improved when upped in trip for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, finishing third behind Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn. She was then an unlucky second in the Irish Oaks behind You Got To Me, having been very short of room, but exacted revenge on that rival in the Yorkshire Oaks where she pulled aggressively but still won well, with Emily Upjohn in third for good measure. Stop the clock there and you have the obvious favourite for this race, but the gloss has somewhat come off after two dismal runs on very soft ground at Longchamp and Ascot.

Betting observations

In a parallel universe in which she had not been entered in her last two races, Content would be the heavy favourite for this race. With the ground at Del Mar likely to be in her favour, it’s arguable that she is now a value play, but not a good wager with doubts over her reproducing her best form.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
9/2	6/1	★★★

WAR LIKE GODDESS (Tr. W Mott)  |  Last 5 runs: 7-3122  |  Draw: 4 of 12

Seven-year-old daughter of English Channel who has been a major force on the US middle-distance turf scene for many years now, winning 12 of her 22 starts and placing in 7 others. Her record is strongest over 11 and 12 furlongs (has not won over shorter since debut), and with her come-from-behind style she is dependent on a decent pace, which she doesn’t always get. Her Breeders Cup record is decent: Third in this race in 2021 (also held at Del Mar, 0.75 lengths behind Japanese winner Loves Only You), third in the Breeders Cup Turf at Keeneland in 2022 (beaten three lengths by Rebel’s Romance), and seventh in the same race last year at Santa Anita behind Auguste Rodin. Returns to the own-gender race this year apparently at the top of her game, having been narrowly beaten by BC Turf contender Far Bridge at Aqueduct in September (close to a lifetime best), and must have a big chance back against her own sex.

Betting observations

Consistent and classy, this mare is the biggest US threat to a European squad that can only be described as patchy this year. The AntePoster recommended her at 18/1 two weeks ago so much less appealing at a fraction of that price, but clearly one of the likeliest winners.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
5/1	5/2	★★★★

MOIRA (Tr. K Attard)  |  Last 5 runs: 33-212  |  Draw: 9 of 12

Five-year-old daughter of Ghostzapper who has spent the majority of her career racing at Woodbine in her native Canada but has performed with credit every time she has been sent on raids south of the border. Fifth in this race in 2022 (Keeneland, over 9.5 furlongs), but much better when a fast-finishing third over ten furlongs at Santa Anita last year. More to the point, both of those editions of this race look stronger runnings than this one, featuring the likes of Inspiral, In Italian, Tuesday and Nashwa. Failed to justify favouritism last time out in the G1 E P Taylor at Woodbine against Full Count Felicia, but that filly was at least 15 lengths clear with three furlongs to go and was never likely to be reeled in, so she’s given a pass for that. Has never raced over this trip of 11 furlongs, but no reason to think it won’t suit given how strongly she finishes off her races over a furlong shorter.

Betting observations

Looks by some margin the strongest of the outsiders here, and overpriced as her form is muddied out by a loss last time out to a rival who got loose on the lead. Very appealing on an each-way basis with five places still being offered by SkyBet (lower at 10/1, but only three places being offered elsewhere).

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
12/1	8/1	★★★★★

FULL COUNT FELICIA (Tr. K Attard)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-6411  |  Draw: 2 of 12

Five-year-old daughter of War Front who spent the first part of her career under the care of Brittany Russell. Won five of her 16 races during this spell and turned into a nice stakes horse (biggest win being the G3 Suwannee River in December 2023), but without any pretensions of being a Grade 1 type, let alone Breeders Cup material. However, the move north of the border to Kevin Attard has seen her step up again – first by taking the (very weak) G2 Canadian Stakes over nine furlongs at Woodbine, and then by winning the G1 E.P. Taylor over ten furlongs at the same venue. If the latter victory is taken at face value (beat Moira by more than three lengths, earning a hefty speed figure to boot) she’s a real player here, but she was allowed to build up an extraordinary lead of more than 15 lengths there as the other jockeys just let her go, and there must be doubt about her repeating the trick in much more exalted company over a furlong further. That said, she’s clearly improved for the move to Attard and cannot be completely ruled out. Excellent draw to lead the field a merry dance.

Betting observations

Everything hinges on whether you think her last win was for real, or whether it was a farce of a race stolen on the front end. If the latter, she’s of no wagering interest at all. If the latter, she’s well overpriced (12/1 is standout with Paddy Power/Betfair, much lower elsewhere).

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
12/1	12/1	★★★

SOPRANO (Tr. G Boughey)  |  Last 5 runs: 34132  |  Draw: 11 of 12

Three-year-old daughter of Starspangledbanner who has been heavily raced in her first two seasons. Was a decent two-year-old, placing in a trio of G3 races (Albany, Sweet Solera Stakes, Dick Poole) but with only one win to show for that campaign (recorded on debut). Has had eight races in a three-year-old campaign that started inconspicuously and has thrown up the odd dull effort, but has also recorded some strong performances: win in the 30-runner Sandringham stakes at Royal Ascot, three-length win in a G3 at Deauville (albeit form questionable), and an excellent third in the G1 Matron Stakes (Ylang Ylang just behind). Most recently a profitable second in the G1 QEII Stakes at Keenland in October, albeit thrashed six lengths by She Feels Pretty. Talented young trainer George Boughey presumably thinks there is more in the tank, but improvement essential in this deeper G1 over a trip a full two furlongs further than she has ever tried (questionable on pedigree). Horrific draw in one of the races where avoiding an outside post matters most.

Betting observations

This feels quite a wild swing on the part of connections after a long season running over much shorter distances. The AntePoster was already doubtful about this filly, but her dismal draw is the nail in the coffin.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
16/1	20/1	★★

BEAUTIFUL LOVE (Tr. C Appleby)  |  Last 5 runs: 21613  |  Draw: 1 of 12

Three-year-old daughter of Siyouni who raced four times as a juvenile without providing any indication of being top class (best performance a fourth place in a listed race on heavy ground at Newmarket).  Like Cinderella’s Dream, was whisked away to Meydan for the start of her campaign, being well beaten by that stablemate in her first three-year-old start before comfortably winning a weak conditions race. Was then put away until August, when she reappeared in the US. Well beaten in the G2 Lake Placed (dwelt when gates opened), she then ran her best race in the Jockey Club Oaks at Aqueduct in September, beating Justdeny a length and a half, before finishing third in another G3 four weeks ago at the same venue. None of that form stacks up against this level of competition. 

Betting observations

Possesses no form lines that suggest she can go close in this, so highly unappealing as a wagering prospect.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
20/1	20/1	★

HANG THE MOON (Tr. P D’Amato)  |  Last 5 runs: 4-1211  |  Draw:  7 of 12

Four-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo who showed nothing on the dirt as a juvenile and not a great deal more when switched to turf as a three-year-old. However, the switch from Michael Stidham to top California turf trainer Phil D’Amato in July of this year has worked wonders. Dismissed in the betting – understandably in the context of her achievements up to that point – in the G2 John C Mabee at Del Mar, she ran out a ready winner with some decent types behind (Anisette, Didia). Despite that victory, she was also relatively overlooked in the betting when stepped up to ten furlongs for the G2 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita but won that too at 10/1 (heavy favourite well beaten). That California turf form looks short of what will be required in the context of this race, but she covered more ground than any in the Rodeo Drive and was never stronger than at the finish, so could conceivably have more improvement up in trip again. 

Betting observations

Bare form doesn’t look good enough, but this filly is on a streak and potentially still improving. Perhaps an each-way play with Skybet (18/), who are offering five places.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
20/1	10/1	★★★

DIDIA (Tr. I Correas IV)  |  Last 5 runs: 13144  |  Draw: 5 of 12

Six-year-old who came to the US in August 2022, having won two G1 races in her native Argentina. Has continued to creditably at a high level in almost a dozen stakes races since, winning five (most recently the G1 New York Stakes at Saratoga in July). However, there are a number of negatives to take on board. Her two main rivals in that G1 clearly underperformed on the day (Godolphin’s English Rose blew out, War Like Goddess got upset in the stalls). Didia could then only finish fourth as the favourite in the G1 Diana next time out, and in her most recent outing she came home a very disappointing fourth in the weaker-looking G2 Rodeo Drive won by Hang The Moon. For good measure, she was a well beaten 10th of 12 in this race last year at Santa Anita, that being the only time she has taken on a full cohort of top European fillies and mares. In summary, she’s a hard-knocking and admirable mare, but even a return to best gives her an enormous amount to find. 

Betting observations

A peak-form Didia would only be a fringe candidate for a place, and with doubts about that she makes no betting appeal, despite Morning Line maker Jeff Siegel anticipating 8/1 in the US pools.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
20/1	8/1	★★

ANISETTE (Tr. P L Powell)  |  Last 5 runs: 21-113  |  Draw: 8 of 12

Four-year-old daughter of Awtaad who was transferred from England to California in the summer of 2023 after a middling two-year-old campaign. Has since thrived under the care of Leonard Powell, winning five of her eight races (including two G1 contests, albeit exceptionally weak ones) and being placed in the others, most recently in the John C Mabee at Del Mar, where she was beaten 0.75 lengths into third by Hang The Moon (Didia behind). Had every chance there (took the lead in the straight but was run down late) and this is far tougher over an extra two furlongs, which she wouldn’t look an obvious candidate for on breeding. 

Betting observations

Difficult to knock a filly who has never finished out of the money since arriving in the US (all graded stakes races), but suspect she has been swimming in a shallow pool. Makes little betting appeal.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
25/1	15/1	★★

SUNSET GLORY (Tr. M McCarthy)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-1115  |  Draw: 12 of 12

Lightly raced daughter of Cotai Glory with just six races under her belt after being sidelined for a year-and-a-half at the end of her two-year-old career. Returned earlier this year with a trio of victories at progressively more competitive events (maiden special weight, allowance optional claimer, listed race over this course and distance), before being stepped up to face G2 company in the Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita. Could only finish fifth of seven there, despite starting as 5/2 favourite, and impossible to see her flourishing in far tougher company in this race. The very worst of the draw too. 

Betting observations

No betting appeal at all.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
50/1	30/1	★

BEACH BOMB (Tr. H Motion)  |  Last 5 runs: 19223  |  Draw: 10 of 12

Four-year-old daughter of Lancaster Bomber (second in BC Mile at Del Mar in 2017), won her first Group 1 in December 2023 at Kenilworth, South Africa, before then doubling up just five weeks later in the G1 Paddocks Stakes at the same venue, that contest being a “Win And You’re In” for the Breeders Cup. Next two races were less good, and she was switched to Maryland-based trainer Graham Motion earlier this summer with an eye on a US campaign prior to shipping to Del Mar. Wasn’t impressive in first start over 8.5 furlongs at Monmouth Park, but stepped up on that to finish third to Hang The Moon when shipped to Santa Anita for the G2 Rodeo Drive last time out. Needs to step up markedly on that form, and whether she wants eleven furlongs is another question mark (G1 victories were over 8 and 9 furlongs), but worth noting that her sire was a G1 winner over 10.5 furlongs in the last race of his career. Bad draw.

Betting observations

Her form since arriving in the US is patently not good enough, and while it’s not impossible that her talented turf trainer can eke out a bit more, she doesn’t appeal for betting purposes, not least as she’s drawn very wide.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
50/1	20/1	★★