Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies: A truly Non Compliant situation

Whoever named the $150,000 Tiz The Law filly Non Compliant before sending her to be trained by Robert A. Baffert must have a sense of humour. After all, no trainer in the US has attracted more negative headlines for pharmaceutical violations on the part of horses running from their stable than Baffert. Most prominent in the media of these episodes of non-compliance with racing regulations is the case of Medina Spirit, first past the post in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, but subsequently disqualified as he was found to have a substance known as betamethasone in his system following that race. As a result, Churchill Downs imposed a blanket ban on all Baffert runners, thereby preventing him entering any horses in the Kentucky Derby between 2022 and 2024.

That ban has now been lifted, and in any case would have no bearing on Baffert’s ability to run his horses at the Breeders Cup, which this year is being held at Del Mar, California. That also happens to be the state in which Baffert has always been based, giving him a “home advantage” to some extent. The focus of this article is the antepost betting market for the Juvenile Fillies run on dirt, in which a Baffert entrant looks to be one of two runners that are seriously mispriced.

Three fillies likely to dominate market

Come 1 November, the Juvenile Fillies market is likely to have three horses sitting atop the market: Scottish Lassie, Immersive, and Baffert’s aforementioned Non Compliant. The first-named may well take on the mantle of favourite after her runaway win with a huge speed figure (90 Beyer) in the G1 Frizette at Aqueduct. Immersive, representing powerful connections Godolphin and leading Kentucky trainer Brad Cox, will likewise take money as a dual G1 winner (lower Beyers of 83 and 80). Indeed, she is currently the favourite in antepost books. Meanwhile, Non Compliant is likely to be third favourite at worst following just two starts and two wins (Beyers of 81 and 82). Japan also has an interesting one in American Bikini, but this filly is unlikely to dislodge the above US runners from the top-three betting positions.

Weighing up the respective form of the big three, who have recorded their best performances on different tracks in different parts of the country, is not easy. Scottish Lassie boasts the highest speed figure, achieved in New York on her second start. That represented a quantum leap forward from her debut, but was it a one-off against inferior rivals, or can she reproduce that performance on a different racetrack against better competition the other side of the country? The AntePoster doesn’t know, but 11/2 with Bet365 is admittedly quite eye-catching for a filly who has a strong claim to favouritism. Meanwhile, Immersive holds two G1 wins, but she had a perfect trip in the G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, where she didn’t impress the speed figure-makers. The AntePoster queried her being priced at 11/2 on X (i.e. the former Twitter) in the hours after that Keeneland win, but she has since been cut to 3/1 favourite with bookmakers, which looks plenty short enough.

William Hill and Ladbrokes go out on a double-figure limb

The AntePoster is most keen on Non Compliant as the antepost play in this race. After winning on her first start (at Del Mar, encouragingly), this filly was thrown straight into Group 2 company for the Oak Tree Stakes at Santa Anita, where she took on stablemates Nooni and Tenma, G3 and G1 winners respectively. Non Compliant even started favourite, which is testimony to the high regard in which this once-raced maiden winner was held by the Baffert barn. Despite being forced four wide around the first turn, Baffert’s filly made relentless progress around the far turn and ultimately ran out an easy winner from stablemate Nooni. Crucially, she never looked stronger than at the wire – an important factor in a race run over the same distance as the Breeders Cup test for juvenile fillies on the dirt (8.5 furlongs).

But the key reason for recommending a bet on Non Compliant is not her unbeaten record, her winning experience at Del Mar (on debut), her Group 2 win over more decorated stablemates, or even her obvious upside potential as she prepares for just the third race of her career. The biggest single argument for backing her is her price – she is available at 10/1 with William Hill and Ladbrokes for this race, despite being as short as 5/1 elsewhere. Contrast this with the Morning Line made by the Daily Racing Form (an advance odds book as compiled by a former Del Mar morning-line maker Brad Free), which pegs her as the likely 4/1 third favourite. Pinning down her final starting price with accuracy is obviously impossible two weeks out, but there is not the slightest chance of Non Compliant jumping from the starting gates on 1 November at the price set by Hills.

There are two ways of playing this filly. The first is to wager win-only, either taking the all-or-nothing approach or – for those of a trading mindset – laying some of the bet on the exchanges on the day of the race. The alternative is to back her each-way, for a 50% profit on the investment if she finishes second or third. This is also appealing, as the odds of her finishing in the top three do not look to be anything like the 2/1 that William Hill’s lavish price implies for that part of the bet.

Add a Scottish saver

To complete a betting “pincer play” on this race, The AntePoster also recommends taking the 11/2 on the likely favourite, Scottish Lassie, based on her outstanding performance in the G1 Frizette Stakes. Bet365’s price is 1.5 points longer than any other bookmaker and well above Brad Free’s DRF morning line estimate of 7/2, which looks closer to the mark. Win only, in case the exceptional last-time-out victory of this Jorge Abreu filly proves to be just a flash in the pan.

Recommendation: Back Non Compliant (each-way) @ 10/1 with William Hill or Ladbrokes. Back Scottish Lassie (win only) @ 11/2 with Bet365.