Breeders Cup Mile: Notable overreaction?

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It is in the nature of things for major European Group 1 races in the autumn to have an impact on the corresponding Breeders Cup markets, as bookmakers, owners and trainers take stock of where the top horses might be headed as these lucrative end-of-year races heave into view stateside (in the case of 2024, at Del Mar, California).

So it was with Sunday’s Prix du Moulin over a mile at Longchamp, which went to the outsider Tribalist on proper soft ground. Chasing him home from too far back was top older miler Charyn, with Henry Longfellow a mild disappointment in third. More disappointing still – on the face of it – was the laboured effort of second favourite Notable Speech, who trailed in fifth.

But the comments of connections in the immediate aftermath of the race were highly informative with the future in mind: “Charlie [Appleby] is very philosophical and it’s all now geared towards the Breeders’ Cup, where he’ll get the ground he needs.” These words came from none other than Godolphin chief executive Hugh Anderson after the race, and the same line was confirmed by Appleby himself on Monday.

This was the first public expression of Godolphin’s clear intention to take Notable Speech to Del Mar, which was not a given since they already have last year’s winner (see below) based in the US with a repeat bid in mind. This clarification, allied to the fact that Breeders Cup races in Southern California are invariably run on the rattling fast ground that Notable Speech so obviously craves, makes it surprising that his price was pushed out to 5/1 by B365.  All the more so because there are significant question marks over the quality, suitability, or participation of his obvious rivals as quoted by bookmakers:

• Porta Fortuna (6/1): The BC Mile is the clear target of this top-notch three-year-old filly. Strong candidate, but on the ratings she’s not as good as Appleby’s colt.

• Master Of The Seas (8/1): Stablemate of Notable Speech, based in the US, winner of the BC Mile last year. But that looked a relatively weak field, and we’ve yet to see him this year. Is he OK?

• Charyn (10/1): The clear target is the QE2 at Ascot on Champions Day, 18 October. The likelihood of him being immediately sent stateside for a race on rattling fast ground 13 days later is surely minimal.

• Carl Spackler (12/1): Has emerged as arguably the top US turf miler this year. 12-1 is fair, though looking at his form there is a suspicion that this son of Lope de Vega needs some cut in the ground to show his very best. He won’t get that at Del Mar.

• Haatem (12/1): Injured, out for the season.

• Ramatuelle (12/1): Wowed with the eye in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, but cold analysis of the bare form says she’s seriously up against it.

• Opera Singer (14/1):  The Prix Vermeille over 12 furlongs beckons this weekend with a view to a tilt at the Arc over the same distance. Dropping her back to mile on firm ground looks more than a 14-1 shot in itself.

• Fallen Angel (16/1): Classy filly matches up at her best, but the two standout pieces form have come on yielding ground. Looks unlikely to make the trip.

• Tribalist (14/1): Lover of soft ground, finished 14th of 14 in Hong Kong on only occasion he has faced fast-ish ground. Del Mar will be faster still, yet Fabre seems to keen to take the all-expenses paid trip.

• Johannes (16/1): Improved Californian miler, has home court advantage.  Won’t have ever faced a field as deep as this, however.

• Audience (20/1): In-and-out form but high class when on song, bookmakers have overreacted by pushing him out this far.  It remains to be seen if he will make the trip to California, however.  One to watch.

The above list is not exhaustive.  Bookmakers do not yet quote the improved Japanese mare Ten Happy Rose, for example, but otherwise the competition cited above looks about as strong as it will get.

In summary, it was clear to connections, bettors, and media pundits alike that Notable Speech was most unlikely to thrive in the soft ground that prevailed at Longchamp on Sunday (the ground description of “souple” was changed to “très souple” later in the card). And so it proved. But to push his price out for a race that will almost certainly be run on very different ground later in the year, when he stands out as the obvious favourite for that race and is all but confirmed for the plane, is eye-catching to say the least.

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