Breeders Cup Turf - Final Field Analysis

Date of race: 2 November 2024                   Date of analysis: 29 October 2024

The AntePoster |  29 October 2024

REBEL’S ROMANCE (Tr. C Appleby)  |  Last 5 runs: 11131  |  Draw: 11 of 13

Six-year-old gelding with an extremely unusual profile insofar as he only made his debut on the turf at the age of four. Ignoring his very patchy 2023 season, in which a huge amount went wrong for him (including a nasty and painful unseating incident after clipping heels in the G1 Bowling Green Stakes at Saratoga), his last ten runs have seen him finish 1111111131, including six G1 wins in five different countries. The one blemish in that race cluster came in Ascot’s G1 King George in July, when he was kept too close to the pace in a very fast-run race, but even this was a mighty effort as he stayed on into third behind the top-class Goliath and subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking, both of whom benefited from a more conservative ride. This globe-trotting star is the right favourite to repeat his 2022 BC Turf victory, has had the same prep run in Germany, and a repeat of his superb Sheema Classic win in March giving him every chance of making it into the winner’s circle. The one fly in the ointment is his wide draw.

Betting observations

A short price but deservedly so, and 3/1 is reasonable despite wide draw. Apart from anything else, this is one of the few European horses at the BC meet who could start shorter in the US pools, as Appleby’s record at G1 level stateside is stunning and the wagering US public knows it.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
3/1	5/2	★★★★

EMILY UPJOHN (Tr. J&T Gosden)  |  Last 5 runs: 42633  |  Draw: 2 of 13

High-class five-year-old with a string of top-class performances to her name. Some observers have described her as a mare in decline after failing to win a race this year, but while she has underperformed in a couple races, with the benefit of hindsight she has also run two of her best-ever races in the last few months: In the ten-furlong G1 Pretty Polly stakes staged at the Curragh in June she opened up a huge lead only to be cut down in the last few yards by subsequent Arc heroine Bluestocking. Then contested the Prix Vermeille over 12 furlongs, where she was a close third behind Bluestocking and Aventure. That form could hardly look any better now (that pair finishing 1-2 in the Arc de Triomphe), she’s drawn well, and fast ground suits best so she is looks a key player, not least following the news that she will be partnered by Frankie Dettori, who has ridden her in both her G1 victories.

Betting observations

With the Prix Vermeille form now looking red hot, Emily Upjohn has the credentials to be a serious contender. Feasible upsetter but very short price.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
7/2	5/1	★★★

JAYAREBE (Tr. B Meehan)  |  Last 5 runs: 13121  |  Draw: 5 of 13

Named after high-stakes poker legend JRB, this three-year-old colt has himself landed a couple of significant pots for connections with wins at Royal Ascot and in the G2 Prix Dollar on Arc weekend (subsequent Champion Stakes winner Anmaat among the beaten horses there). Yet to contest a G1 race but has shown grit and consistency, and his clear top-level potential is highlighted by his two-length defeat by Economics in the G2 Guillaume d’Ornano. In terms of racing style Jayarebe is a habitual front-runner, and Del Mar’s fast turf and tight circuit would at first glance look a good fit for this colt to step up to 12 furlongs for the first time. For good measure, Brian Meehan has twice been successful in this race with dark horses flying under the radar – including for this very owner – and apparently has “no concerns at all” about his colt staying the trip. On the other hand, those stamina questions have not been answered, and “making all” in the BC Turf is a rare feat (last to succeed was the top-class Highland Reel). Draw fine.

Betting observations

A fascinating contender. Questions to answer over distance and holding off some top-class closers here will be tough so he looks short in the betting. Interesting if he drifts significantly.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
6/1	4/1	★★

LUXEMBOURG (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 40166  |  Draw: 4 of 13

Stalwart of the middle-distance flat racing scene for several years now, having won a Group 1 in each of his four racing seasons. However, only win in his last ten races was against a very weak field in the Coronation Cup back in June. In the last month, trainer O’Brien has flirted with both the Arc and British Champion Stakes as potential targets by leaving Luxembourg in both races at the five-day stage, but ultimately stayed true to his long-term aim of pointing him here. Was used as a pace angle in the Irish Champion Stakes and ran a respectable race, ultimately only folding in the final 100 yards. Also set the pace when winning the 12-furlong G1 Coronation Stakes in June, but that was a weak race won from the front with easy fractions. Repeating the trick here with Cabo Spirit and Jayarebe in the field looks a tall order, but well drawn and the choice of Ryan Moore.

Betting observations

Has already come in for significant support, and bettors both sides of the Atlantic are in awe of the O’Brien/Moore combo, so may well go off at an even shorter short price. But he’s not a top-notcher at this trip and The AntePoster hates his price (half the morning line odds), despite his trainer having won this race seven times.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
6/1	12/1	★

WINGSPAN (Tr. A P O’Brien  |  Last 5 runs: 61322  |  Draw: 10 of 13

Lightly raced three-year-old filly by Dubawi who has progressed at a rate of knots in a very short space of time: Won seasonal debut in early August, G3 placed in late August, neck runner-up in the G2 Blandford Stakes at the Curragh in September, then fine second in G1 Fillies & Mares at Ascot on 19 October. As an improving filly she has to be taken very seriously wherever now, but only a fortnight since her last race on testing ground so question mark over her ability to reproduce her best here in very different circumstances. Draw not great and doesn’t get Ryan Moore but respected nonetheless.

Betting observations

A filly on the up with a hugely progressive profile so dangerous, but nagging doubts about quick turnout just a fortnight after a slog in a bog. The AntePoster is neutral at this price.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
10/1	15/1	★★★

FAR BRIDGE (Tr. C Clement)  |  Last 5 runs: 53911  |  Draw: 6 of 13

Four-year-old son of English Channel whose resume after his first eleven races painted the picture of a decent stakes-level horse who was just shy of the very top level. All that has changed since being moved up in trip to the 12-furlong distance of this race: Put two decent Godolphin/Appleby horses (Measured Time/Silver Knott) in their place when leading all the way in the G1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga in August, then proved there was no fluke about that result by playing a waiting game and surging past both Silver Knott (again) and the high-class War Like Goddess in the G1 Joe Hirsch at Aqueduct a month later. Interestingly, these two races were precisely those won by Main Sequence before his success in the 2014 edition of this race. Being unbeaten and unexposed at this distance after just two attempts, Far Bridge is the obvious US threat to the international raiders and well worth his place in the line-up. Draw fine.

Betting observations

Recommended as an outstanding bet at 25-1 in an AntePoster article published on 29 September. The best available price is now half that, so the relative appeal has diminished. Has a shot, but price no more than fair with Emily Upjohn and Wingspan being late additions to the field.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
12/1	6/1	★★★

SHAHRYAR (Tr. H Fujiwara)  |  Last 5 runs: 035-25  |  Draw: 3 of 13

Japanese six-year-old who hasn’t won a race since taking the G1 Sheema Classic at Meydan in March 2022. However, there have been plenty of examples of top-class form in the meantime, including when third in this race last year to Auguste Rodin (didn’t get as good a run as the first or second) and when running a strong second to Rebels Romance in this year’s Sheema Classic (ahead of Emily Upjohn in fifth and a tailed-off Auguste Rodin). Likes to have his races well spaced out, so no concern that he hasn’t been seen since the G2 Sapporo Kinen in August, and hardly concerning that he was beaten four lengths into fifth there, as he ran a shocker in the same race before coming to Santa Anita last year. Good draw.

Betting observations

Has started at massive prices in his two most recent G1 races outside of Japan, yet finished in the frame on both occasions. Should be shorter in the betting, overpriced.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
12/1	10/1	★★★★

ROUSHAM PARK (Tr. H Tanaka)  |  Last 5 runs: 18-250  |  Draw: 1 of 13

Five-year-old son of Harbinger who unusually raced just once in each of his two-year-old and three-year-old seasons. Started his four-year-old season in 2023 with three straight wins, the peak being his win in the G2 Sankei Sho against Titleholder before finding the waters of the Hong Kong Cup too deep (8th of 11, Luxembourg second; worth noting that Roushan Park broke slowly from the widest stall and had a wide trip for the whole race). Looked set for an even better five-year-old season when just being touched off in the G1 Osaka Hai in March (ten furlongs, top lifetime form figure), but not so good since in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen (11 furlongs, five-length 5th of 13) or most recently the G2 Mainichi Okan (9 furlongs, three-length 10th of 14). On balance has a bit to find, but a possible angle here is the step up to 12 furlongs for the first time, a distance over which his sire put up a performance for the ages in the King George at Ascot many moons ago. Has drawn the rail, which might or might not be a good thing.

Betting observations

Looks to be the weaker of the entrants from Japan, but that nation is now a middle-distance superpower on both dirt and turf, so a strong performance would hardly shock. Not impossible for a place, very difficult to see a win.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
25/1	20/1	★★★

CABO SPIRIT (Tr. G Papaprodromou)  |  Last 5 runs: 036-01  |  Draw: 8 of 13

Vigorously campaigned five-year-old (27 runs) who until recently had not run beyond the distance of nine furlongs, the peak of his achievements being a G3 and a G2 gained in 2022 on the fairly weak California turf circuit. However, when stepped up to ten furlongs for the first time in late September in the G2 John Henry at Santa Anita he duly “wired the field”, i.e. led from start to finish. That success appears to have been largely the result of having slowed the field to a crawl by setting glacial fractions from the front. On the one hand it could be argued that he is completely unexposed as a stayer, having won his only start over ten furlongs and yet to attempt further. On the other he faces a massive class leap here and his breeding hardly screams 12 furlongs, so the chances of him pulling off another front-running heist (which would involve putting away the much classier European invader Jayarebe) look remote.

Betting observations

Just occasionally, top US turf races are stolen from the front, but the high-class Highland Reel was the last horse to pull off the feat in this race, and Cabo Spirit’s chances of repeating the trick look every bit of his 50/1 and then some.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
50/1	30/1	★

GOLD PHOENIX (Tr. P D’Amato)  |  Last 5 runs: 91715  |  Draw: 12 of 13

Six-year old with a healthy win ratio (7 from 21) who has raced almost exclusively in his home state of California since moving to the US from Ireland in 2021 (only exception: non-threatening ninth to Rebel’s Romance in 2022 edition of BC Turf at Keeneland). With most of his graded stakes wins (one G1, four G2s) being fairly weak affairs in the context of this race, it is tempting to dismiss Phil D’Amato’s colt as being out of his depth in the field. But that might be short-sighted – he has only run three times at distances further than ten furlongs in his home state, winning his two races over 11 furlongs and coming home an excellent fourth (beaten 2.5 lengths) behind Auguste Rodin in this race over 12 furlongs last year (held at Santa Anita, that edition of the BC Turf looks just as strong as this one). Knows Del Mar like the back of his hoof, and quite conceivable that this local could run another cracker at a big price. That said, he’s drawn very badly this time around.

Betting observations

This locally-trained gelding would have appealed as a longshot given what he achieved in this race last year, but his bad draw negates that positive.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
50/1	15/1	★★★

THERE GOES HARVARD (Tr. A P O’Brien  |  Last 5 runs: 28251  |  Draw: 13 of 13

This six-year-old has decent bits of dirt form but turf record is less impressive. Strongest piece of form in this context is his recent second to Cabo Spirit in a very weak G2 at Santa Anita. No claims on these accomplishments, has never run a good race at Del Mar, and is dreadfully drawn.

Betting observations

No appeal at any price.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
100/1	30/1	★

GRAND SONATA (Tr. T Pletcher)  |  Last 5 runs: 28251  |  Draw: 7 of 13

Five-year-old who recently notched up the greatest victory of his career to date when winning the G2 Kentucky Turf Cup, for which he bagged a purse of more than $1 million. More relevantly, that victory earned him an all-expenses paid trip to this race, which is probably the only reason why connections are thinking strongly about running in this spot (no newsflow on firm decision at time of writing). Thrashed by Far Bridge two runs back, and with just two wins from his last 18 races and no experience of taking on a deep G1 field before, this horse looks to be a very unlikely podium player, let alone winner.

Betting observations

Available at a big price but still doesn’t appeal.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
100/1	20/1	★★

EL ENCINAL (Tr. F Garcia  |  Last 5 runs: 16160  |  Draw: 9 of 13

Four-year-old who earned an all-expenses berth in this race by virtue of having won a Breeders Cup “Win And You’re In” race in his native Argentina in December 2023. That form looks a country mile below what will be required here, an argument strengthened by his dismal form since arriving in the US (finished last in his two runs). No-hoper.

Betting observations

Even at 500/1 this horse would make no appeal.

Best fixed European odds	Del Mar Morning Line	Price appeal
200/1	30/1	★

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