Lennox Stakes: Obvious answer staring us all in the face at 16/1

A striking aspect of one of the two feature races on the opening day of Glorious Goodwood next week (the other being the Goodwood Cup) is how many of the top 20 in the betting of the Group 2 Lennox Stakes are either a) set to bypass the race (or have a high chance of doing so); b) won't have their preferred conditions; c) are out of form.

Interestingly, this includes both second favourite Paborus (a doubtful runner in the event of fast ground per trainer Ed Bethell) and third favourite Zavateri (clearly being pointed to the following day's Group 1 Sussex Stakes over a furlong further by Eve Johnson Houghton). And even Andrew Balding, trainer of fourth favourite Never So Brave, is quoted today as saying his gelding has three options open to him (Lennox, the following day's Sussex, or wait for the Hungerford).

We find all this quite head-scratching. Makes you want to hunt out a bet, no?

All the more so as the doubts don't stop with that trio. Native Warrior's improvement over the last year has patently come with give underfoot, Marvelman won't have his ground either, defending champion Witness Stand was a well-beaten favourite last time (his fifth disappointing performance in six runs since last year's glory), and hot Jersey favourite Saber Strike disappointed in that race and was beaten into third on his next start. The last-named does at least does have upside, as that was a 7-day turnaround.

Want more (although perhaps "fewer" would be a better word)? Let's keep going then. Division will be sidestepping Goodwood in favour of Group 1 glory in France ten days later (Prix Maurice de Gheest), Flora of Bermuda is being pointed to the fillies' 7-furlong race later in the week (Oak Tree Stakes), the unbeaten Secret of Life is set to run in Ascot's Valiant Stakes this Saturday, while both Audience and Soldier's Tree ran only this weekend just past – both finished third in their respective races – and neither has any history of backing up this quickly.

Surely, therefore, this an antepost market screaming for involvement. To our eyes, there are just two key players to focus on for betting purposes.

First and foremost, we have to accept that favourite Lake Forest looms pretty large. William Haggas' mercurial gelding was second in this last year, comes here after two very good runs – an easy win over this trip and an eye-catching fifth over too short a trip in the QEII Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot – and is difficult to ignore as the logical favourite.

That said, we don't see much juice in 5/2 for a horse who has disappointed on so many occasions. Lake Forest is often slowly away and can leave himself a mountain to climb, as is reflected in a return of 4 wins from 17 runs. Sometimes this horse doesn't turn up at all. Clearly the case for him strengthens now that he has been gelded...but we still want to go with the other glaringly obvious bet at six times the price.

Namely Qirat at an incomprehensible 16/1.

The case is pretty simple:

• Group 1 winner at Goodwood (last year's Sussex Stakes): whatever you may think about that "fluke" result (he was the pacemaker for the favourite), he can hardly be ignored down in grade at his return to this track. Not least because...

  
  

• ...he's unbeaten at Goodwood. Specifically, his course figures read 1 - 1 - 1; this covers all ground types (GS, G, GF per Timeform);

  
  

• After two dull runs earlier in the season, he bounced back to form in no uncertain terms in the Criterion Stakes at York last month, beating (Group 1 winnner) Never So Brave by a length and a half. That was the best performance of his career to date (according to RPRs) or at least on a par with his Sussex Stakes victory (Timeform);

  
  

• The stable intends to declare Qirat for the Lennox, not for the red-hot Sussex Stakes the following day (per stable to The AntePoster on the day of publication of this article). That dual entry would otherwise have been quite the fly in the antepost ointment;

In summary, you can back a Group 1 winner at Goodwood – who has never been beaten at Goodwood – at 16/1 for next Tuesday's Group 2 Lennox Stakes, a race in which the vast majority of serious contenders have huge question marks over them, whereas he doesn't.

In a rare departure from our standard policy (all bets are typically considered to be £10 win or £5 each-way for our P&L purposes, i.e. 1 pt win or 0.5 pts e/w), this is a "2 point" recommendation. In other words, we will count this wager as £10 e/w for our P&L purposes.

Recommendation: Back Qirat each-way at 16/1 to win the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood racecourse on Tuesday 28 July. Price available with Bet365, Unibet, Betfred, Paddy Power and Skybet, as well as MGMBet, Boylesport, StarSports, Bresbet and Virginbet.

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