Breeders Cup Turf: Hardly a bridge too far

A few weeks ago, The AntePoster wrote an article flagging up the possibility of a weak European presence in the 12-furlong Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar on 2 November. Little has occurred in the interim to change that opinion. The one clear market development that has unfolded – a genuinely significant one – is that Rebel’s Romance (highlighted in the article of September 12 as interesting at 16/1) has shortened dramatically to 5/1 (mostly 4/1). This was not driven by his rather unimpressive win over weak opposition in the G1 Preis von Europa in Cologne, Germany, but by simultaneous confirmation that he will be heading to Del Mar next.

Big European guns heading elsewhere

This was in one important sense noteworthy. Because the big guns of the European middle-distance scene (City of Troy, Goliath, Calandagan, Economics, Auguste Rodin) look certain to miss the race, and – for one reason or other – many other decent prospects such as the outstanding filly Bluestocking look set to skip the meet too. Quite possibly the Arc de Triomphe will throw up a couple of contenders in the aftermath of 6 October, but either way it seems likely that 2024 will one of the weaker batches of foreign raiders cross the Atlantic for the showpiece turf event at the Breeders Cup.

Meanwhile, the events of Saturday night have prompted The AntePoster to revisit one American runner in particular who now looks significantly overpriced. That horse is Christophe Clement’s Far Bridge, who at the time of writing is 25/1 with Bet Victor for the Breeders Cup Turf.

Emergence of new US middle-distance turf star

Far Bridge’s last-out Group 1 victory in the Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga was potentially suspect, insofar as he set easy fractions from the front (a marked departure from his normal running style) and held off all the closers. But Saturday’s G1 Joe Hirsch was very different: In a race strongly run led by the inveterate – and appropriately named – front-runner Get Smokin, Far Bridge closed from the back and beat favourite Silver Knott by further than he had in the Sword Dancer, as well as reeling in ultra-reliable yardstick War Like Goddess (leading older mare, a good third to Rebel’s Romance in the 2022 BC Turf).

There are other things to like about this four-year old, who Clement inherited from Todd Pletcher at the beginning of this season. In addition to his run-style versatility, Far Bridge still has the possibility of peaking in what is just his third season: most strikingly, he is unbeaten at 12 furlongs, with his last two G1 victories being his only attempts over the distance to date. And in the absence of injury (or other force majeure) he appears certain to line up at Del Mar in five weeks’ time. The Breeders Cup Turf, to which entry was earned free as the Sword Dancer was a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the race, is now his sole target.

Huge place chance, possible upsetter?

Owner Rand Sarf was talking big in the aftermath of Saturday’s victory. “He is in top form right now … and we’re going to win the Breeders Cup.” The AntePoster wouldn’t be quite that bullish. Far Bridge will have to improve again to beat Rebel’s Romance, any strong Arc runners who make the trip over, and Japan’s Shahryar (interesting at 16s but the subject of an ownership row over the cost of running at Del Mar). But he is now grossly overpriced. In particular, his chance of emulating sire English Channel (and that stallion’s other progeny Channel Maker and War Like Goddess) by placing this race has now soared, making the 25/1 still available too juicy a fruit not to be plucked. At this price, the 5/1 equivalent for the place part of an each-way bet looks heavily skewed in the bettor’s favour, and with further upside this four-year-old genuinely does have a shout of taking the whole purse.

Recommendation: Back Far Bridge each-way at 25/1 for Breeders Cup Turf