Breeders Cup Turf: Will a leading contender please commit?

Getting involved early with the antepost markets for the Breeders Cup races run on the turf is a dangerous thing to do. This is particularly true of the (confusingly named) Breeders Cup Turf itself, which is run over 12 furlongs. Very few of the top European horses are committed to this race long in advance, with the two most powerful stables – Godolphin/Appleby and Ballydoyle/O’Brien – rarely showing their hand until October.

But at the same time, the nature of the antepost game has become more appealing thanks to the Breeders Cup Challenge Series – a collection of “Win and You’re In” (WAYI) races staged throughout 2024 all over the world to encourage and subsidise global participation (the winners gain an all-expenses-paid slot in the starting gate, including a travel cost contribution). This series has been expanded to the point where a clutch of horses with very little chance of winning the race have already filled many of the available starting places (for all that not every single one will take up the invitation).

These include two South American candidates in El Encinal (Argentina) and Obataye (Brazil) who can only be classified as no-hopers, along with a trio of US horses who cannot realistically hope for more than a place, and even that would require everything to fall their way (Far Bridge, Grand Sonata, Gold Phoenix). Blow The Horn (Japan) has a higher level of form, but his Group 1 in the Takarazuka Kinen at Kyoto was run on unusually soft ground, and looks a bit suspect.

But what really catches the eye is the shape of the current antepost market. The great majority of the horses at the top of the betting appear to be doubtful runners. Goliath (brilliant winner of the King George at Ascot) has been ruled out by his owners, who are instead targeting the Japan Cup due to the unfavourable configuration of Del Mar (he’s a big fella and Del Mar is tight). Calandagan is heading to the Champion Stakes at Ascot just 14 days before the Breeders Cup. Connections have mentioned Japan, Hong Kong and Australia as possible long-term targets, but pointedly not the Breeders Cup, and a quick turnaround for Del Mar looks most improbable. Auguste Rodin would be very interesting. As the reigning champion and a lover of fast ground (which he will almost certainly get at Del Mar), he would look to fit this race like a glove, but the current 8-1 reflects the fact that his connections too would like to target the Japan Cup, as it would very much suit their stallion ambitions for this last-crop son of legendary Japanese sire Deep Impact. Perhaps they will take in Del Mar too, but there has been no mention of it. And when combined with his propensity to throw in the odd shocker, he cannot possibly be a bet now. This is newsflow to watch closely.

This list of likely absentees doesn’t stop there, as next in the betting are a clutch of even more unlikely runners. Economics is being kept to ten furlongs by one of the most cautious trainers in the game, and the chance of him even being sent stateside in November is surely north of the 50-1 mark. Look de Vega and Sosie head up the market for the Arc de Triomphe (we will know more about that market after the Arc trials this Sunday) and have so far shown a preference for soft ground; besides, Arc winners to Breeders Cup is not something the French do. City of Troy is being targeted at the Breeders Cup Classic to fulfil a dream dating back decades, although it is just possible that if he hates the surface during his “prep run” at Southwell racecourse on September 20 the stable will have a rethink. That would see 14-1 become 2-1 in minutes.

Auguste Rodin being led around the Paddock at Santa Anita before his victory in the 2023 Breeders Cup Turf / Copyright @ Gabraidza

When the final cards are revealed, it is likely that Aidan O’Brien will send one or two of Continuous, Los Angeles, Opera Singer, and Content (though the latter pair obviously have the fillies race over a furlong shorter as an alternative). But at this stage only “The Lads” (i.e. owners of all Ballydoyle horses) would have a clue which. Similarly, Godolphin will probably send one or more of Rebel’s Romance (winner of the Sheema Classic in Dubai, guaranteed a starting berth), Measured Time, and Silver Knott (both of whom rather disappointed in the US last time and wouldn’t be guaranteed a starting berth). But here too, punters are none the wiser at this stage.  Perhaps Rebel’s Romance appeals most of the “status unknown” crowd at 16-1, but that would be quite the speculative poke at this stage.

All in all, this market looks a dangerous one to get involved with. The major doubts over most of the big names combined with the limited number of starting gates available did lead The Anteposter to the high-class Japanese middle distance horse Shahryar, a close third to Auguste Rodin (who got a dream run) last year, and possessing a host of other pieces of top-class form over the BC Turf trip. But the latest news there is that investors in the horse are rebelling over the cost of sending this former Sheema Classic winner to Del Mar for a repeat BC bid, as he is not a Challenge Series winner.  A messy situation – which rather sums up this race as a whole.