Breeders Cup Distaff: Laboured last-out effort by favourite not yet factored into antepost market

Wix Media

The middle-distance US dirt racing scene for fillies and mares has been shaken up this year by the arrival of a superstar filly who has swept all before her against her own gender. From the Kentucky Oaks to the big distaff races at Saratoga (Acorn Stakes and Coaching Club Oaks), no rival was able to lay a glove on Thorpedo Anna up to midsummer. Her ability to dismiss any opposition by multiple lengths in even the most competitive races had not been seen in this division for many a year.

And so trainer Kenny Mcpeek went bold, pitching his filly against the top three-year-old colts in the Travers Stakes in late August. She was stunning there too. No, she didn’t win, but she ran the very best of the boys of her age group (Fierceness, second favourite behind City of Troy for the Breeders Cup Classic) to a nose, running a speed figure not seen for years on US dirt by a female. Race lost, but reputation emphatically enhanced.

With McPeek having then indicated that she would be targeted at the BC Distaff in November, rather than taking on the boys again in the BC Classic – which would mean clashing with not just Fierceness, City of Troy, and others of the classic generation, but also the older US horses and a host of talented overseas contenders from Japan – she duly shortened to around even money for the fillies and mares contest. Fair enough.

But the latest chapter in this story has provided more than a strong indication that a season of blow-out wins and the epic Travers battle may have taken its toll. Returning to own-gender competition, Thorpedo Anna won the Cotillion Stakes at Parx racetrack (Philadelphia) on Saturday night, but for the first time this season, it looked a struggle. The winning distance was less than a length – despite being against opposition that was far from representing the cream of this division. Echoing what was apparent to the eye, the regression in terms of speed figures (a key metric in US dirt racing) compared to her Travers effort was considerable.

There are two ways of looking at this. The first is to take the trainer’s line at face value – no big deal, she wasn’t fully cranked up for this race, he “didn’t want to squeeze the lemon dry” with the BC Distaff just six weeks away. The other view to take, including by many neutral observers as well as The AntePoster, is to fade out trainer-speak and conclude that the Travers effort – a gladiatorial battle in which the champion three-year-old filly just lost out after a Herculean stretch run – had left its mark after a long season that began back in March. And with Saturday night requiring another big effort to get to the wire first, there has to be a chance that this admirable filly has peaked for the season.

Given this development, it was surprising to see the bookmaking community leave her price for the BC Distaff unchanged (and in some cases shorten her up) at around even money. With the great majority of those listed in the betting for this race being dead, out for the season, not nearly good enough, or mistakenly priced for the Distaff when in fact they are targeting the 7-furlong Filly & Mare Sprint, The AntePoster can see only four serious rivals come 2 November:

• Idiomatic (6/1 generally): The reigning champion, whose figures at races in excess of a mile (the BC Distaff being nine furlongs) read 111111212. The first of those second places was behind a classy front-running rival (Randomized, now out for the season) who had an easy lead and the run of the race. Idiomatic’s last-time-out second place was following a wicked speed duel with the same horse, allowing Raging Sea (see below) to pick up the pieces.

  
  

• Adare Manor (7/1 generally): Easily best of the West Coast brigade, but the same was true last season before she faded tamely in the Breeders Cup itself. That was at her home track of Santa Anita, so the BC being held at Del Mar this time around hardly counts as an advantage relative to last year. She might be a better horse this year, but she’ll have to be.

  
  

• Awesome Result (14/1, Paddy Power and Hills): Challenger heading over from Japan with a fair amount to recommend her. Firstly, pedigree: daughter of top racehorse and stallion Justify, as well as being a half-sister to a G1 winner in the US. Secondly, her unbeaten race record of 1111111 – we really have no idea of the ceiling of this filly’s ability, for all that she has almost certainly been facing vastly inferior opposition in Japan. And finally, the fact that Japan took the last Distaff when the Breeders Cup was last held at Del Mar. West Coast Breeders Cups work much better for the Japanese. In short, this filly is an unknown quantity but dangerous, and with her unbeaten record it is difficult to see how she can fail to start at a single-figure price.

  
  

• Raging Sea: (16/1, B365): Decent filly, albeit not in Idiomatic’s class, until besting that one in the final half furlong of the Group 1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga in August, having sat well off an extremely contested pace (see above). Far from certain to get that pace setup at Del Mar (no front-running Randomized for a start), which has a short straight and is less favourable to closers. She was also getting 4lbs in weight from Idiomatic at Saratoga, which she won’t at Del Mar. That said, she is still an eye-catching price at 16s with B365 (median price is 10/1).

The AntePoster’s take

A filly with Thorpedo’s Anna CV this season deserves to be favourite, but taking out half the market at even money looks wrong given her dramatic speed figure regression in her last race following a punishing effort in the Travers Stakes against the boys. A dual play is proposed here on the two most overpriced horses, with each wager having a different rationale:

• Back Idiomatic each-way at 6-1. Where the win part of the wager is concerned, the price is not reflective of her chance of defending her crown.  And given her astonishingly reliable résumé (never finished worse than second in 11 starts over last two years), the place part is a gift at higher than even money, assuring a mild profit on the outlay if she is second or third.

  
  

• Back Awesome Result (win only) at 14s. This price looks certain to shorten once the formidable Japanese contingent has flown in, and possibly earlier. For those who use the exchanges, this should therefore make for a rock-solid trading position in the run-up to the race.

Published 23/09/2024 at 16:36 CET