St Leger: Extra non-runner risk acceptable as price is right

Antepost betting is intrinsically bound up with non-runner risk. That the horse in question will get injured, spike a fever, or be off its feed. That its owner or trainer will change their mind about the race in question for good or no good reason. That the horse will act up before the starting gates and be withdrawn. The AntePoster once had an antepost bet go down when the horse in question fell over in the parade ring and had to be withdrawn. So many things can go wrong without the insurance cover of the NRMB 48-hour market.

All of this part and parcel of the game, the quid pro quo for the greater reward offered by the antepost price.

One risk that is usually best avoided is the scenario when a horse is not firmly targeted at the race in question. Clear trainer/owner intent is usually a prerequisite of any wager placed on the outcome of a future race.

But when the price is right an exception can be made. And in the case of the final Classic of the British flat season, the St Leger at Doncaster on 13 September, we believe an exception should be made. Enter dual Derby winner Lambourn, currently available at 6/1.

Lambourn has been a "possible" for the Leger for many weeks now. But yesterday the newsflow changed quite tangibly. Or rather, the words used by Ballydoyle training maestro Aidan O'Brien took on a whole new slant:

"I'd say at this stage the three main ones would be Scandinavia, Lambourn and Stay True. That's the way we're thinking at the moment, but nothing is set in stone at this stage...there is every chance Scandinavia and Lambourn will both run against each other."

Deciphering Aidan O'Brien-speak is not always easy. But while "every chance" is obviously not a cast-iron judgement, it speaks volumes to us. In short, for the first time in the will-he-won't-he saga, we believe the odds are heavily weighted to the Epsom and Irish Derby hero taking his chance at Doncaster in just over two weeks' time.

This in itself would not excite us were Lambourn priced up as a likely runner. But he isn't. He is 6/1. We would expect him to be less than a half of that price if he enters the gate, so with the newsflow having changed but the price not having moved even half a point, we make him a bet.

Part of the reason for his inflated price is his laboured fifth in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York a week ago. This doesn't bother us particularly. After four runs from the spring through early summer, Lambourn was given a break after the Irish Derby. And we know well enough now how O'Brien goes about his training regime after a horse has had a break: slowly.

The Great Voltigeur was a means to an end, and the end target was never going to be a Group 2 after a break for this dual Group 1 winner. He carried the biggest weight penalty, he was weak in the market, a clear warning was given that he would improve for the race, and he duly underperformed relative to his ability, albeit beaten only 3 lengths.

Expect a very different Lambourn on 13 September. The Derby winner will go to Doncaster race fit, as the only dual Group 1 winner in the line-up, and as the top-rated horse in the field (Timeform and RPRs, excluding Minnie Hauk who has less chance of lining up than the author). And he should be way shorter than he is.

Perhaps Scandinavia will prove too tough. Though it's worth bearing in mind that this son of Justify was simply awful on his only trip to Doncaster last year, and still has to prove himself on easy ground, which he may well get when he returns to that venue.

Or perhaps Lambourn will be beaten by one of the other horses in the field, for all that he is seven pounds or more clear of them on the ratings. Both of these outcomes are possible.

But we do not believe the aggregation of those outcomes works out as the mirror betting image of Lambourn's 6/1.

This price is simply too big, even allowing for the lack of certainty over his participation. William Hill have cottoned on to this with two-point cut overnight, and we expect the remaining bookmakers offering 6/1 to follow soon.

Recommendation: Back Lambourn win only at 6/1 (Bet365, BetMGM, Boylesport, VirginBet, Skybet, Paddy Power) to win the St Leger at Doncaster on 13 September.