Champion Hurdle: Scrutinizing a three-pronged Cheltenham antepost betting market
- The AntePoster (H)
- Feb 17
- 8 min read
Is there any antepost betting market for the Cheltenham Festival that is at the same time so simple and yet so complex as the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday 11 March?
There is maximum field of ten based on remaining entries. Almost certainly, not all of these will line up. But what's complex about that - isn’t it just an everyday scenario in an antepost world?
Yes… but there are some mighty “known unknowns” to unravel here, quite aside from what “unknown unknowns” might put in an appearance over the next three weeks.
Specifically:
· Is the mighty Constitution Hill the horse he was, or is betting on that premise taking a foolhardy leap of faith at 4/5 (approx.) in the full-risk antepost market (exchange price)?
· Brighterdaysahead may have been breathtakingly good last time, but will she turn up or will the O’Leary brothers rather pathetically default to the supposedly more winnable Mares Hurdle?
· If Brighterdaysahead does go to the Mares, will Lossiemouth stay in this race? Or is it the case that the connections who are “first to blink” will send the connections of the other mare the other way? Or do they stare each other down and both turn up here?
· How much of an effect will Lossiemouth’s fall at the DRF prove to have had on this otherwise solid each-way contender?
· Is State Man the horse he was even as recently as November, when only touched off by a race-fit Brighterdaysahead? Did the DRF run tell us anything in that regard following his Christmas shocker?
· Will either or both of Burdett Road and Golden Ace turn up here, and do either of them represent any each-way value?
Below you can find our table in which we list the ten horses currently entered for the showpiece of the first day at the Cheltenham Festival in just over three weeks’ time, together with their prices – correct at the time of writing but obviously subject to immediate change – in the two fixed-odds antepost markets (full-risk antepost and NRMB antepost), with the Betfair exchange price given for reference purposes as a typically more generous full-risk antepost price.
Our analysis is designed to be informative rather than a preamble to any firm betting recommendation. There are better Cheltenham markets to wager on than this, in our view. That said, we do believe one very high-risk play (full-risk antepost bet on a mare whose participation is open to doubt) and one very low-risk play (high odds for an each-way NRMB bet on another mare whose participation is open to doubt) represent interesting betting angles at this point. These are marked in red in the table below.
Enjoy the read, and please feel free to comment, question, disagree in the box for comments located right at the very bottom of this page.
| Best full-risk antepost fixed odds* | Best NRMB fixed odds* | Betfair exchange price* (total return for a £1 stake) |
Constitution Hill | 4/6 | 4/7 | 1.82 |
Brighterdaysahead | 5 (Bet365) | 9/4 | 5.30 |
Lossiemouth | 5 | 4 | 6.60 |
State Man | 8 | 6 | 10.5 |
Burdett Road | 40 | 33 | 75 |
Golden Ace | 40 | 33 (Bet365) | 48 |
King of Kingsfield | 66 | 50 | 400 |
Winter Fog | 66 | 66 | 800 |
Brentford Hope | 100 | 66 | 310 |
Senecia | 150 | 150 | 1000 |
Overround | 114.8% | 140.1% | 102.7% |
* Prices correct at the time of publication (1500, 17/02/25)
CONSTITUTION HILL 8yo gelding | Nicky Henderson | Last 5 runs: 1/1-11
Betting analysis: Those who think this unbeaten horse can prove that he remains the superstar hurdler of yesteryear have a tortuous choice in the antepost market: Take 4/7 NRMB, which could look like a terrible price in the event of the two leading mares – or even just Brighterdaysahead – turning up, or take the antepost risk at 1.82 (a shade over 4/5) with Betfair. This is rather more generous than the equivalent fixed odds on offer for the pure antepost play, but does taking three weeks of antepost risk on a horse with Constitution Hill’s profile really appeal?
The AntePoster’s view: The NRMB price is unappealingly short for a horse who has not matched his peak form of 2022/-23 recently, while the pure antepost price has too much risk attached for a horse with Constitution Hill’s back story. Yes, he has just run twice in a month without any issues arising, but those who are keen on the chances of the 2023 champion are surely best advised to sit on their hands for now.
BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD 6yo mare | Gordon Elliott | Last 5 runs: 21-111
Betting analysis: For no other candidate is the “spread” between the full-risk antepost price and the NRMB price quite so great. This of course reflects the huge doubt over whether the O’Leary brothers will “go for it”, or whether they will stick to their mantra of choosing the race in which they believe they have the greatest chance of winning. But what sticks out here is the very generous 5/1 offered by Bet365 on a pure antepost basis. Indeed, at the time of writing it was higher than the Betfair price at which Brighterdaysahead can be laid on the exchanges. This is highly unusual. The AntePoster’s view: This mare comes with huge risks attached, but 5/1 (Bet365) as a full-risk antepost play is far more interesting than 9/4 NRMB, which again could prove shorter than the price in the 48-hour market in three weeks’ time. For those happy to assume the full risk of loss in the event of her swerving the showpiece event of Day 1, a bet on this mare looks interesting, as it would bring instant monetizable trading rewards in the event of any negative newsflow concerning the other three big players in the market.
LOSSIEMOUTH
6yo mare | Willie Mullins | Last 5 runs: 11-12F
Betting analysis: Lossiemouth’s fall at the Dublin Racing Festival initially saw her price drift, but it has now tightened up, with no great difference between the full-risk antepost price (5/1) and the NRMB price (4/1). Given that heavy fall and connections having admitted that there will be a “conversation” on the choice of race for Day 1 of the Festival, there is twin risk on the full-risk antepost front: the physical mark left by the recent fall, and the risk of diversion to the Mares Hurdle. And the former of course hangs over the NRMB play too.
The AntePoster’s view: After her disastrous last outing, we couldn’t advise playing Lossiemouth in either market until news of her wellbeing emerges.
STATE MAN
8yo gelding | Willie Mullins | Last 5 runs: 1-1231
Betting analysis: The price on the exchanges (10.5, or 19/2) is not hugely in excess of the full-risk antepost price offered by fixed-odds bookmakers (best price 8/1). As there are no questions over his intended participation, this is a fairly decent premium to the NRMB price of 6/1 for those who believe this horse still “has it”.
The AntePoster’s view: Given the assurance that this season’s State Man was at the form level we saw in 2023 or 2024, he would appeal as a bombproof each-way play. But Lossiemouth’s fall deprived punters of the ability to judge where exactly the Donnellys’ gelding is at right now, and he would have little chance of placing on the form shown over Christmas. As we see very little chance of the reigning champ winning next month at a track that has yet to show him at his best (last year’s edition being a very weak race), the skinny return on the place part looks unattractive.
BURDETT ROAD
5yo gelding | James Owen | Last 5 runs: 12-132
Betting analysis: In contrast to the situation that applies for many other entrants, the spread between Burdett Road’s NRMB price (33/1) and the full-risk antepost price (40/1) offered by bookmakers is fairly negligible, so the latter is highly unattractive. As a win candidate he makes zero appeal, so the higher exchange price (75.0) does not tempt either.
The AntePoster’s view: Was beaten fair and square by Golden Ace in the Kingwell Hurdle on Saturday, a result that rather kills the each-way appeal of this horse. The AntePoster finds him an unattractive betting prospect compared to Golden Ace, who is available on identical terms. For those nonetheless keeping the faith with a possible placing (better ground just might be an angle for improvement), NRMB is the only way forward given that James Owen has flagged up the possibility of an alternative Festival engagement.
GOLDEN ACE
7yo mare | Jeremy Scott | Last 5 runs: 11-431
Betting analysis: Identical pricing to Burdett Road in the fixed-odds antepost markets. Here too, the full-risk antepost price is highly unattractive. But Bet365 are unique in offering 33/1 NRMB, which is twice the price of that listed in many other NRMB books.
The AntePoster’s view: We consider Jeremy Scott’s mare a decent each-way bet at 33/1 on an NRMB basis. With question marks of both attendance and wellbeing hanging over many rivals above her in the market, we rate the chance of her placing considerably higher than the implied 13/2 in the each-way NRMB price offered by B365, as the chances of two of these higher-rated rivals either not making the race or underperforming on the day look quite high.
KING OF KINGSFIELD
7yo gelding | Gordon Elliott | Last 5 runs: 0-4225
Betting analysis: In what becomes a repetitive theme when we get down to this level of the betting, the exchange price on this horse to win (400) is many multiples of the full-risk ante-post price quoted by bookmakers (66/1). Could this pacemaker – for that is all he will be if he runs at all (may well be dependent on Brighterdayshead being declared) – possibly hold on? No, of course not, but perhaps there are worse 400-1 shots....(exchange win-only price alas, at fixed odds we would recommend a tiny each-way involvement)
The AntePoster’s view: There’s a possible trading angle here for the back-to-lay-in-running punters, as there is a chance he will lead the Champion Hurdle field for much of the race before collapsing like a house of cards. However, only those with exceptional capital reserves will be able to afford to do this against an antepost market position (and in any case this horse looks an unlikely runner if Brighterdaysahead is rerouted to the Mares Hurdle for the same connections), so punters should wait until 48-hour declarations to play this risky game, which may or may not work out. No other appeal.
WINTER FOG
11yo gelding | Willie Mullins | Last 5 runs: 43323
Betting analysis: The 800/1 available on the exchanges for this horse to win tells you everything you need to know about bookmaker management of each-way liabilities on a race that could cut up to a small number of runners (they are best-priced 66/1 for the same full antepost risk).
The AntePoster’s view: Rather freak circumstances saw Winter Fog finish runner-up in the G1 Neville Hotels Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, ahead of State Man. That scenario is most unlikely to be repeated here, and in any case this race is far deeper. By far the oldest horse in the field, this 11-year-old makes no each-way appeal at all.
BRENTFORD HOPE
8yo gelding | Harry Derham | Last 5 runs: 2-2024
Betting analysis: His dismal run behind Golden Ace at Wincanton on 15 February has hardly been reflected in any change in the betting, either on antepost (100/1) or an NRMB basis (66/1). A bet on this horse in either market appeals even less than on the other extreme outsiders.
The AntePoster’s view: No appeal.
SENECIA
8yo gelding | Vincent Laurence Halley | Last 5 runs: U4U3-P
Betting analysis: This one looks to have more chance in the Champion Chase (200/1) rather than here (150/1 for both NRMB and full antepost risk), as he does have one decent piece of recent form over the bigger obstacles (third at 200/1 in the G2 Fortria Chase at Navan as recently as November, only 1.5 lengths behind Found a Fifty and Solness, but ahead of Banbridge). But the exchange price of 1,000/1 tells you everything you need to know about his chances should he revert to hurdling, where his best form (October 2024, Tipperary) was a fourth of five (beaten 19 lengths), three lengths behind fourth-placed Winter Fog, who was giving him 7lbs.
The AntePoster’s view: No appeal.
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