Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025: Navigating an attractive NRMB market

In just over a month’s time, one happy set of connections will lift the ultimate prize in jumps racing – the Cheltenham Gold Cup at Prestbury Park. The overwhelming consensus is that the trainer/ownership combination in question this year is going to be that of Galopin Des Champs, the chasing superstar of the modern era. Of his 16 starts over fences (the last 15 of which have been G1 contests), he has lost just five: falling at the last fence back in his rookie days, when 12 months’ clear of his nearest rival in the Turners Novices Chase at Cheltenham in March 2022, and then four times at Punchestown. Otherwise, at Cheltenham and Leopardstown he has not just beaten his rivals but put them mercilessly to the sword – his “least impressive” victory (in terms of distance) being his 3.5 length victory in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year, earning him an official rating of 179 and a whopping RPR of 183, just 1lb off his lifetime best.  With all the signs pointing to this beast of a horse remaining at the height of his powers, it takes a leap of imagination to see what will finish ahead of him on 14 March barring force majeure.

So it this a problem for the punter? Those who like odds-on shots aside, doesn’t his presence - at a best price 8/15 in a field of no less than fifteen horses - mean that this race is almost untouchable from a betting perspective? Not so, in our view. Because this market is highly unusual on three counts, which when combined skews things in the punter’s favour from an each-way angle:

NRMB terms: For all the derision and sniping that typically accompanies the appearance of NRMB (Non Runner Money Back) betting offers on the Cheltenham Festival, it should be pointed out that the Gold Cup antepost market this year is an unusually favourable one. Specifically, we doff our cap (and The AntePoster is not in the habit of dishing out credit to bookmakers) to Bet365, who have made the decision to go best price on the next nine horses in the betting after the favourite. What makes this largesse particularly eye-catching is that Bet365 are one of the turf accountancy houses offering NRMB, removing all non-runner risk from the equation.  For a bookmaker to be best price on the key e/w players AND offer NRMB terms when certain other bookmakers (let them be shamed but remain nameless) are shorter on many of the same horses without that concession is remarkable.

Field erosion: In any normal circumstances, a 15-horse field an ugly thing for the each-way punter given three-place terms. Put simply, it’s mathematical madness to wield the each-way weapon in a large-field scenario unless more e/w places are offered. But here’s the thing: These are not normal circumstances thanks to the NRMB concession, and there is no possibility of the Cheltenham Gold Cup being a 15-horse field. Indeed, looking at the remaining entrants – and discarding the remote possibility of other horses being supplemented – it would appear reasonable to conclude that the final field is likely to be around the “8-10” mark. This is well below the recent historical average, and even a 7-runner field for the first time since 1974 does not look like a complete impossibility. That’s a very playable field. And crucially, while no racing purist could ever wish for such a thing to happen, the point has to be made that any horse may fail to make their intended race, and if Galopin des Champs, who accounts for some two thirds of the market, were to stub a toe or catch a bug, anyone sitting on an NRMB position on one of his rivals would have a jewel of a bet. Stuff happens – and if the reigning champ is forced to miss the race it would be the bookmakers applying ointment to their burnt fingers.

Generous overround: As things stand (and not taking exchange prices into consideration), this antepost market is not much more than 130% overround. This is in itself rather unusual in an antepost market a month out. And when one then factors in the NRMB aspect – including doubts over the participation of the second favourite (alternative engagement) and third favourite (ground dependency), this betting market takes on a much more appealing hue. With NRMB participation, the punter can take a risk-free approach - at least until the flag goes up - with the relative value of an antepost betting slip increasing with every decision by connections to bypass the race and with every withdrawal due to an ailment of one kind or another. Indeed, there's a decent argument for taking more than one position, particularly with those horses who are unlikely to make the gig.

So who do you like?

Below we set out our guide to the field of the 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup, summarizing the profile of every horse still entered and allocating between one and five stars based on our view of their appeal as an each-way betting prospect. A vital factor to bear in mind here is the NRMB aspect, which requires the punter to think rather differently about markets and contingent possibilities. For example, we allocate four stars to Banbridge – i.e. we consider 8/1 a relatively attractive e/w price – as the key “risk” here is that he will not turn up to the race at all in the event of underground conditions proving too testing. But in this NRMB market, that withdrawal risk is ignored for star allocation purposes, as it is not a risk that the NRMB punter has to bear. In a similar vein, while we think there is little chance of Grey Dawning turning up, 33/1 is hugely attractive as the constellation of events that would prod Dan Skelton to act would mean a much shorter price.

We hope you enjoy the read, and appreciate you may have very different ideas as to the where the value lies in this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. So please do comment in the box at the very bottom of the page below the article (below the other recent posts), letting us know your idea of the best each-way play in this race.

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 GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (Willie Mullins)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-2311

The greatest staying chaser since Kauto Star, with simply phenomenal consistency. His modus operandi is to warm up casually going right-handed over an insufficient 2m4f in the John Durkan Stakes at Punchestown before obliterating all challengers at Leopardstown and Cheltenham, before then rounding off the season with another relative underperformance at Punchestown on faster ground. But his combination of class, speed, versatility, and pure stamina means he towers over the field in the Gold Cup at Prestbury Park next month. That said, 8/15 is a very short price for a Gold Cup favourite, and he may be available at no worse a price on the morning of the race, so if odds-on shots are your thing we would recommend holding off. 

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
1/2 (Bet365, Paddy Power)	★★

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FACT OR FILE (Willie Mullins)  |  Last 5 runs: 11-123

The most exciting novice chaser from last season reappeared with a win in a very deep John Durkan at Punchestown, taking the scalp of Galopin des Champs among others.  But that was over 2 miles 4 furlongs, and taking on grizzled staying chasers on their seasonal debut may have painted a flattering picture. In his two most recent attempts to repeat the feat over a distance of 3 miles plus, he has loomed up on the shoulder of the champ only to be swatted away. In both cases, he has looked at his most vulnerable in the last furlong, with Grangeclare West outstaying him to claim second in the final strides of the Irish Gold Cup. It is therefore highly likely that he will be rerouted to the Ryanair Chase, run over a similar distance to the John Durkan, not least as he is a best priced 2/1 favourite for this less glamorous prize. Perplexingly, this may lend itself to greater value in the NRMB price. With the Ryanair looking so sensible, perhaps only an injury to Galopin des Champs would see Fact to File come here, in which case 6/1 would look very big indeed.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
6/1 (B365)	★★★★

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BANBRIDGE (Joseph O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 9-1U41

A curious campaign in the first half of the year saw this good-ground specialist take the British mid-season highlight in the King George. Having generally been campaigned at 2m and 2m4f trips over his lifetime, trainer Joseph O’Brien laid out a plan to go for the 2m Fortria Chase, where he ran dismally, onto the 2m Hilly Way Chase, coming down at the last whilst looking on top of Energumene, before lining up at Kempton. No other horse in the King George looked remotely like catching tearaway leader Il Est Francais, but Banbridge closed the gap relentlessly and was pulling ever further away as he approached the finishing line. Connections have confirmed that the Gold Cup is their big March target (although he is entered in both the Champion Chase and the Ryanair). One question is whether he will thrive for this more gruelling test of stamina, the Gold Cup being a very different test to the King George. On the other hand, the issue of the weather (this horse does not want testing ground) is not a concern for the NRMB punter, as he would therefore be an unlikely starter in the event of the abbreviation “G/S” not appearing in the going description. All in all, he is a very intriguing NRMB runner. With suitable ground he will probably go off second-favourite at 9/2 or so in the (likely) absence of Fact to File. While he almost certainly lacks the class of the favourite and stamina doubts are only reasonable, he is an attractive bet as a likely clear second-favourite on G/S ground.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
8/1 (B365)	★★★★

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CORBETTS CROSS (Emmet Mullins)  |  Last 5 runs: F13-26 

A stayer through and through, as demonstrated by his facile victory in the National Hunt Challenge Cup at last year’s Cheltenham Festival over 3 miles 6 furlongs, where he slammed Embassy Gardens by 17 lengths. What’s more, he might well be unbeaten at Prestbury Park were it not for running out at the last hurdle of the 2023 Albert Bartlett, when just a length down and holding every chance. Beaten in both starts this season (at Wexford by Heart Wood, then 21 lengths behind Banbridge in the King George on Boxing Day), but almost certainly wants a greater staying test than either of those races. A couple of respected pundits recommended Emmet Mullins’ horse as an antepost play in the aftermath of the King George, driving his price down from 40/1 to around a third of that at the time of writing. But with no really solid form this season we think the value has gone on this horse.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
14/1 (B365)	★★

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MONTY’S STAR (Henry de Bromhead)  |  Last 5 runs: 12-225

One of the classiest novices of last season, beaten less than four lengths by Fact to File in the Brown Advisory Novices Chase at last year’s Festival. Well-beaten second behind Embassy Gardens in his seasonal reappearance at Tramore on New Year’s Day. Improved form in the Irish Gold Cup when beaten roughly eight lengths into fifth by Galopin des Champs, racing close up for most of the contest before weakening approaching the last. That was at least an improvement on his reappearance, and another step forward could see him be competitive for the podium, particularly if the Gold Cup trip sees him in a better light. Improvement could be bought about by a return to form for the Henry De Bromhead yard, which has been performing way under par for much of the season. This trainer does seem to have a knack for bringing his horses to Cheltenham in sparkling form, and if his stable turns things around this fellow could be a shortener.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
16/1 (B365)	★★★

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GRANGECLARE WEST (Willie Mullins)  |  Last 5 runs: 11-P62 Hugely talented novice back in 2023, and although that season was limited to just two runs, the form looks decent now with both the beaten horses plying their trade at a decent level (Corbetts Cross, Heart Wood). Then off for the best part of a year before disappointing (pulled up) on his return in the 2024 John Durkan won by Fact to File, and showing improvement (but still well beaten, finished 6th, beaten 23 lengths) behind Galopin des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown. Went into the Irish Gold Cup at 66/1 on the back of those two runs but belied those odds in style, maintaining a good rhythm for the whole race and just getting the better of Fact to File for second place. He has a standout chance of placing if he can repeat that form, and although he does have Ryanair as another option it’s surely the longer trip he wants. Finally, while he does have an inconsistent profile he also has potential improvement on his side.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
16/1 (B365)	★★★★

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L’HOMME PRESSE (Venetia Williams)  |  Last 5 runs: 124-31

Leading novice of 2022, winner of the Brown Advisory Novices Chase at the Festival. Unseated at the last in the 2022 King George when being challenged for the lead by Bravemansgame. Off the track for more than a year, then returned in decent form in early 2024 for a three-race season that culminated in a fourth place behind Galopin des Champs in last year’s Gold Cup. Looked overpriced for the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and was duly recommended at 25s e/w by The Anteposter a few weeks before the race. Ran a respectable third behind Banbridge and Il Est Francais, but there were few excuses to be made as he was beaten 11 lengths. Then took the Cotswold Chase but without polishing his GC credentials, as he was receiving weight from the majority of the field and took a while to rein in the slick-jumping Stage Star. However, it’s possible that this year’s Gold Cup will see him in an even better light, as his weak finish in last year’s may well have been attributable to an injury sustained at the second last, at which point he was running a massive race. There is class here, and for all that another possible run before the Festival raises questions, he has a solid chance of placing.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
20/1 (B365)	★★★★

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GREY DAWNING (Dan Skelton)  |  Last 5 runs: 113-2P

One of the most impressive first-season chasers last year, but things have gone rather awry this season. Decent second to Royale Pagaille in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, but that race was run in hock-deep ground and appears to have taken its toll on most of those who contested it, and he was duly pulled up in the King George, not helped by a bad blunder at the first fence. Still has stamina questions to answer over the Gold Cup trip but has been left in here whilst removed from the Ryanair. The current plan is to go to Kelso and then Aintree, but Skelton is monitoring the Gold Cup field and if anything happens to the favourite or we see a hugely diminished field it would not be a stretch of the imagination to see him line up here. Equally, he would surely only turn up off the back of a promising performance at Kelso, which would see his price cut. He therefore provides an excellent NRMB bet at 33s e/w, as his attendance requires eventualities that correlate with his price shortening significantly. Very likely non-runner, but that’s an insured risk.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
33/1 (B365)	★★★★★

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JUNGLE BOOGIE (Henry De Bromhead)  |  Last 5 runs: /416-1

Very lightly raced for an 11-year-old (just seven races, five starts over fences) and his last two races have been his best: Sixth in last year’s Gold Cup, where (although 21 lengths behind Galopin des Champs at the line) he was only a few lengths behind the leaders and going well when making a complete hash of the third-last fence. His only race since saw him thrash Fil Dor at Ascot in December at a lower level. There’s clearly still plenty of talent here, but equally he is also entered in the Champion Chase and the Ryanair. The latter option looks the more likely target for connections, and there are too many quality options ahead of him in the betting for him to appeal as a play here.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
40/1 (B365)	★★

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HEWICK (Tara Lee Cogan)  |  Last 5 runs: 23257

Battle-hardened, dual-purpose hurdler and chaser who has long operated at a high level, his finest hour coming in the 2023 King George at Kempton when he came from an unpromising last place (appeared to be struggling for much of the race) to wrest the spoils from Bravemangame in the final furlong. Back to something like his best in late November when just touched off by Envoi Allen in the G1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal, but could only finish seventh of 12 (beaten 12+ lengths) by Galopin des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup. No evidence that the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip is what he wants (was struggling when falling heavily in 2023 edition). With a new trainer since early December due to J J Hanlon’s suspension. Also entered in Stayers Hurdle.  We don’t like his chance at all, even he turns up.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
50/1 (B365)	★

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THE REAL WHACKER (Patrick Neville)  |  Last 5 runs: P5-U14

High-class novice chaser over the 2022/2023 season when he racked up three consecutive victories, culminating in a short-head victory over Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham. Hasn’t really hit the same heights since exiting novice company, and although he recorded a victory in last November’s G2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby that form looks very weak (second-placed Bravemansgame now a shadow of his former self). Connections appear to be set on heading to Cheltenham, but he was already struggling when pulled up before two out in last’s years Gold Cup, and was thrashed last time out in the King George at Kempton. His sole impact could be creating an eight-runner field. One to avoid.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
66/1 (generally)	★

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GENTLEMAN’S GAME (Mouse Morris  |  Last 5 runs: P5-443 

Not dissimilar to The Real Whacker in the sense that a victory over Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall Chase (in his case in 2023, with just three horses finishing the race) was the best thing on his CV until recently, but he did then run to a similar level when third (beaten 12 lengths) behind Galopin des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown six weeks ago. Well beaten behind L’Homme Presse in the Cotswolds Chase at Cheltenham two weeks ago, however, and his only other run at Prestbury Park saw him pulled up in last year’s Gold Cup, so a return to the Festival is a big question mark. Also has a Grand National entry, and that or the Aintree Bowl would make a lot more sense. Not an appealing bet.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
66/1 (Ladbrokes)	★★

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AHOY SENOR (Lucinda Russell)  |  Last 5 runs: 62-3PP

One of the veterans of the field with more than 20 chases on his CV. Infrequent winner in recent years (only one win in 15 starts since April 2022), but every so often he has delivered a very high-class performance, most notably at Aintree (close second behind Shishkin in the Aintree Bowl in April 2023, and then again in the same race when just nosed out of it by Gerri Colombe in 2024). More worryingly, after a decent third in a G2 at that same track on his reappearance in October he has been pulled up in his last two races. Not necessarily finished at the age of ten, but surely better off bypassing the Festival and returning to a track that suits him so well. Also entered in Ryanair.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
66/1 (B365)	★

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ROYALE PAGAILLE (Venetia Williams)  |  Last 5 runs: /1F-1P

At first glance this admirable stayer looks a surprising candidate to be one of the complete outsiders for this race, as he is in the top third of the field on official ratings and has a terrific strike rate, including two wins at the highest level. But he is also the oldest in the field at 11, and when his beloved Haydock is removed from the CV (five wins, two G1 Betfair chases) things start to look rather less impressive. Pulled up at that venue last time out after jumping poorly (November’s Betfair Chase win in the mud may also have left its mark), and his Cheltenham form reads 656F. Classy, but this is the wrong race at the wrong venue.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
66/1 (generally)	★★

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CONFLATED (Gordon Elliott)  |  Last 5 runs: U5870

Another veteran with some high-class form, in his case throughout a stellar 2022/23 season in which he was an easy winner of the Savills Chase at Leopardstown before finishing a very respectable 3rd (albeit beaten 13 lengths) behind Galopin de Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Some glimpses of that high-class form since, most notably when runner-up to Jonbon in the Melling Chase at Aintree in April last year. However, he has been in dismal form this season: pulled up on seasonal reappearance, then thrashed comprehensively in another four races since, on the last two occasions behind Galopin des Champs at Leopardstown (beaten 29 lengths in the Savills, 41 lengths in the Irish Gold Cup). Also entered in Ryanair and is a shorter price for the Cross Country. Makes no appeal in this company even with NRMB concession.

Best NRMB price	Price appeal
66/1 (B365)	★