Stayers Hurdle: A must-play Cheltenham antepost bet as weather picture crystallizes

There’s just a week to go until the Cheltenham Festival, and many pieces of the big race jigsaws are falling into place.

Another aspect that is taking some sort of shape – rather surprisingly, given the ambiguity that has hovered over many a major race meeting in the UK over the last two years – is the weather. All “heavy” has gone from the going description, and the word “good” is likely to put in an appearance in the description before the week is out as Prestbury Park continues to bask in early spring sunshine. Who knows, the clerk of the course may even cite the need for watering (sigh). But either way, the chances of this year’s Festival being run on relatively quick ground look high.

The Stayers Hurdle offers an unusually favourable angle in this constellation. The short-priced favourite, Teahupoo, who is a best-price even money to retain his crown, does act on faster ground, but it’s no secret that truly testing conditions see him at best. The data could hardly be clearer: Gordon Elliott’s staying star has figures of 1111111311 with just the words “soft” and/or “heavy” in the going, but when the words “good” or “yielding” enter the equation his form profile collapses to 2106412. Meanwhile, second favourite Home By The Lee has looked as good as ever this season on yielding, but he has Cheltenham figures of 563 (all in this race) and has some shocking runs on his CV on faster ground. Put simply, this market is just begging to be played with the meteorological picture unfolding the way it is.

The bet here is Lucky Place for Nicky Henderson. In a field packed with ageing types, he’s young, he’s improving, and although he wouldn’t be inconvenienced by softer terrain, good ground will be just fine, not least as he has yet to race over a distance this far. His win at Cheltenham last time out in the Relkeel Hurdle against Gowel Road on New Year’s Day looks proper form now: That rival (an each-way player in this race himself, who was getting 6lbs from Lucky Place) would go on to take the Cleeve Hurdle next time out, while back in third was Mares Hurdle champion Golden Ace, who would take the Kingwell Hurdle (beating Burdett Road, a very solid yardstick) on her next outing.

Lucky Place is currently available at 10-1 with Bet365 (for those wanting to carry full antepost risk for another ten days), or 8-1 NRMB (Bet365, BetVictor, MGM Bet) for those who don’t want their bet to go up in smoke if he stubs his toe in the interim. The AntePoster see this Henderson horse as a very attractive bet - win only, as the field is likely to be large, and each-way backers will certainly get four places (and possibly five) if they wait. But his current price is unlikely to be available at that point.

Recommendation: Back Lucky Place (win only) in the Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham on 13 March. Either 10-1 with Bet365 with full non-runner risk or 8-1 with Bet365 on a non-runner-money-back (NRMB) basis.