Commonwealth Cup: 50/1 piece of wood missed for surrounding trees

There's a real good 'un running in the Commonwealth Cup next Friday at Royal Ascot who might simply outclass the competition. The filly Venetian Sun , who sat right at the top of the European juvenile pyramid of quality last year, also looked top-class when reverting to sprinting in the Sandy Lane a Haydock last month. Toying with the opposition under a tight hold until a furlong out, she then streaked clear of a decent field with just the mildest of jockey encouragement.

So Venetian Sun is the obvious one for this race. But would you take a young 3yo sprinter at 7/4 in a 20-horse field at Royal Ascot? Bold, good for you, and you might well get paid. We'll pass.

There's not a strong case to be made on ratings between the next dozen or so in the betting, so ultimately this comes down to sniffing out any price anomalies. But this is where we got excited, as we think there is a glaring anomaly. In this forest of potential talent, one major player from a major stable has been totally missed by a particular bookmaker.

The horse in question Samangan at 50/1. Yes, that guy again – who may have already burnt your fingers (we recommended him for the 2000 Guineas at 66/1, he was withdrawn "off colour" at 16/1, so we stand by that recommendation).

Francis-Henri Graffard was interviewed at his Chantilly base by the Racing Post two days ago, and what he said about this horse's performance this season was striking. Key takeaways of the interview:

Prix Djebel, April 6 (in which Samangan "disappoints" as runner-up): He ran at at time "when many of our horses were sick. I think Samangan was not at his best."

2000 Guineas, 3 May: Samangan is withdrawn a few days before the first English Classic after an unsatisfactory gallop that suggests he is once again not quite right.

Prix Texanita, 19 May: Samangan finishes a laboured fourth. "We rode him a little bit positively...and then he juset didn't like the ground. He's a fast ground horse" (ground per Racing Post: heavy; Timeform: soft).

On the basis of this most recent run, Graffard's colt is now priced in no-hoper territory by Bet365. We find that startling for a horse whose two-year-old form –  containing a sequence of three straight victories that includes a Group 3 and a Group 2 win –  bears comparison with any horse in this field bar the favourite.

The final point made in the interview by Graffard, who is not a trainer to to talk up his horses, is that this son of Blue Point (no bad thing where Royal Ascot is concerned) "is training really, really well". The last time we recall him saying something like this was about a piece of work done by St James Palace entry Rayif in early May... before that horse duly won the French 2000 Guineas.

In summary, Bet365 are offering 50/1 on a high-quality horse from one of the very best European stables who boasts excellent juvenile form and looks primed to run a seasonal best. That's quite a combination.

Bet365 are, however, the only bookmaker anything like this price (next best: 33/1) so we apologize if this window of opportunity shuts quickly after publication of this article.

Recommendation: Back Samangan each-way at 50/1 with Bet365 to win the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot on Friday 19 June. If cut to 40/1 that's fine too, any lower wait for superior place terms in the 48-hour market.