Dubai Sheema Classic: framed for a royal upset?

The answer to the question posed in the title of this article is unfortunately "no".

Like presumably everyone else, we expect the world's top-rated racehorse (by most if not all rankings, there is a Mr Ying Rising who contests the case) to take care of business with the minimum of fuss this Saturday.

Not least as geopolitical and regional turmoil have resulted in the smallest Sheema Classic field ever (six). And with Rebel's Romance, Pride of Arras, and Survie not having made the final declaration stage today (Monday), this race looks even more at the favourite's mercy.

But two factors have dragged The AntePoster into the betting arena five days' out.

The first is RAIN. There will plenty of it this week, something extremely rare (albeit not unprecedented) for the Dubai World Cup meeting. With so much forecast, there is a very strong possibility of yielding turf at best.

And the second is PACE. Or lack thereof. This is field of very few runners, and none of them has a front-running style. The chance of a honest, searching pace looks small unless one of the stayers takes on a role to which they are not obviously suited.

Together these factors raise serious question marks for some of the fancied runners. Not so much Calandagan, who has top-drawer form over 10 furlongs on soft ground. He'll cope with a false pace better than most, as long as Barzalona doesn't do one of his over-exaggerated waiting rides. But will the second and third in the betting?

Let's look at them:

Ethical Diamond was a revelation at the back-end of last season. A horse previously better known for his hurdling exploits was primed to win the valuable Duke of Edinburgh handicap at Royal Ascot (fast ground), the even more valuable Ebor Handicap off a big weight (fast ground), before trainer Willie Mullins decided to gamble big time and send him to the stratospherically valuable Breeders Cup Turf over 12 furlongs (fast ground). Off a searing pace, Ethical Diamond, flew home to pass most of the field in the final furlong, pulling off a shocking 28/1 upset. Impressive. But we think there's good reason to doubt he will prove as effective on Saturday, on completely different ground to his most impressive flat exploits so far, and without a searing pace to run into. He has won on bad ground, but he's also put in a number of stinkers.

Giavellotto has been a different sort of revelation. This is a stayer who seems to have acquired the requisite speed with age to at least compete with the world's best over 12 furlongs. He's won a Hong Kong Vase, finished 2nd in another, taken 3rd in a Coronation Cup, and taken fourth spot in an Arc. Solid. But we've seen before (not least in this race last year) that Giavellotto is reliant on pace to show his best form, and trainer Marco Botti has observed on multiple occasions that his charge is a better beast on fast ground (making his Arc fourth last October all the more impressive, although he did have a favourable draw). But the real doubt here is Meydan racecourse. This horse really doesn't seem to show off his best side in Dubai, as positions of 9th ('23 Dubai Gold Cup), 5th ('24 Dubai Gold Cup) and 5th ('25 Dubai Sheema Classic) would suggest. Hardly cast-iron for the forecast spot.

So where does this twofold scepticism lead us? Step forward the completely unexposed Royal Power at 33/1.

Who?????

• Royally bred son of Frankel out of Dubawi mare

  
  

• Lightly raced as a 2yo (2 runs);

  
  

• Interrupted campaign as a 3yo (3 runs), during which he was gelded;

  
  

• Single start as a 4yo, a Meydan handicap in which he beat subsequent G1 winner El Cordobes (giving him a hefty 11lb)

  
  

• Single start as a 5yo, beating West Wind Blows at Abu Dhabi in a conditions race

None of this makes Royal Power a likely winner of this Sheema Classic. And he's also unlikely to finish second, in the sense that the balance of probability is clearly that he won't. But at a quarter of the odds, the implied probability for the (runner-up only) place part of a win bet is more than 8/1, and we think that's a risk worth taking on this still unexposed type. No one knows how good this lightly-raced type might turn out to be. And on breeding there's a good chance that yielding conditions underfoot will suit just fine (untested).

Some may understandably view the win part of this bet as a waste. So clearly there's argument for eschewing the each-way approach and playing this idea either as a straight forecast with Calandagan or as a win bet in one of the "without the favourite" markets when those open up.

But these are strange meteorological conditions, strange small-field conditions, and strange pace conditions, so 33/1 feels to us to be a price worth taking a wild each-way swing on...to small stakes.

After all, has there ever been a Godolphin/Appleby/Buick horse available at 33/1 in a middle-distance race at Meydan?

Sorry, we just can't let this one pass.

Recommendation

Back Royal Power each-way at 33/1 to win the Dubai Sheema Classic on 28 March with Bet365, William Hill or Unibet. Take no lower: once that price has gone, play as straight forecast with Calandagan.