Dubai Turf: Japanese challenger a cast-iron e/w play

Let's not beat about the bush. Prohibitive favourite Ombudsman is by far the most likely winner of the Dubai Turf, which will play out over 9 furlongs at Meydan racecourse next Saturday.

This is one of the best turf horses on the planet, trained by one of the best training outfits on the planet, and – going purely on formal ratings – any of Ombudsman's last four runs are superior to any race ever run by any of his ten rivals on Saturday week. There's not a great deal to debate in that respect.

There are minor question marks one could flag up. Such as a) the drop below ten furlongs for the first time since debut (might he lack the necessary turn of foot?), and b) the relative mediocrity of his debut run last season when set against his stellar achievement throughout the rest of the 2025 season (perhaps he's not at his best fresh)?

But neither of these negatives really stand up to close scrutiny in our view:

a) The G3 Brigadier Gerard last season was only ever a means to a much bigger end, namely the G1 Prince of Wales at Ascot the following month, and in any case the Godolphin colt was carrying a penalty. This time around the Dubai Turf is a firm objective in its own right, offering a pot some 50 times that of Brigadier Gerard at an ultra-prestigious global race meet that is essentially the creation of Ombudsman's owner, Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum. You can rest assured that neither John or Thady Gosden will be telling the media or the owner that their horse "can be expected to come on for the run".

b) Nine furlongs is not much shorter than the ten-furlong trip over which Ombudsman was such a lethal operator last season. And note than in his last-gasp defeat by the (likewise) top-class Delacroix in the G1 Coral Eclipse last July, the son of Night of Thunder had all of his rivals (including the winner) toiling at the furlong marker – the point at which the Dubai Turf would have stopped. And that was a heavyweight field of Group 1 winners (Camille Pissarro, Ruling Court, Sosie), far stronger than the opposition Ombudsman will be facing at Meydan on Saturday.

So given Ombudsman's clear form superiority and the flimsiness of the only two question marks we can muster up, why would we even think of opposing him?

The answer is that this race has a beautiful each-way shape to it. There are ten runners but they include a clutch of no-hopers (due to the regional conflict, this is the shallowest Dubai Turf assembled for many a year). And thanks to the heavy odds-on favourite, bookmakers are forced into unprofitable each-way territory on a rock-solid performer who we view as by some way the next-best horse in the race.

Step forward Gaia Force at 8/1. Horse racing fans who do not follow Japanese racing may well never have heard of this handsome grey as he has never set foot outside of the Land of the Rising Sun. But he's a three-time Group 2 winner (fields of 13 and 14 horses) and a two-time Group 1 runner-up (fields of 18 horses on both occasions). What's more, three of those stellar performances have come in his last three runs, when has traded blows with Jantar Mantar, the best turf miler in Japan (arguably the entire Eastern Hemisphere).

Ombudsman aside, none of Gaia Force's rivals on Saturday can boast anything like that level of form. And while his last three races have come over a mile, this son of Kitasan Black has a Group 2 win over 11 furlongs on his CV, so getting 9 furlongs is a slam dunk. In fact, we think it's pretty much the ideal distance for him.

In summary, while we don't expect Gaia Force to win, we'd be amazed if he wasn't placed. Key place rivals Quddwah and Facteur Cheval have much bigger questions to ask (Quddwah has never performed at G1 level as finishing positions of 45060 make clear, while Facteur Cheval hasn't shown top-class form for a long while and hasn't won a single race since upsetting this contest at 20/1 two year ago). The rest of the field simply aren't good enough.

Curiously, we feel similarly about this race to the way we felt when we highlighted Soul Rush as the most attractive each-way play in last year's Dubai Turf against superstar Romantic Warrior (who went off at about the same price Ombudsman is trading at now). Soul Rush actually upset that heavy odds-on favourite on the big day. So while this recommendation is likely to return only a very modest profit following a place showing, don't rule out the possibilty of lightning striking twice.

Recommendation for Dubai Turf, Meydan racecourse, Saturday 28 March:

Back Gaia Force each-way at 8/1 with Paddy Power or Skybet. The 7/1 available with Bet365 is OK too.