Dubai World Cup: Take "Razorback risk" for big US beast at 25/1

There is something of "the dog returning to its vomit" about this article. Bear with us.

In our wagering recommendations for the Saudi Cup meeting – an exercise that was profitable for our followers overall – we put up two recommendations for the big race and these didn't turn out well at all.

One fancy spiked a fever, the other stumbled out of the gate and proceeded to run a shocker. Something of a double "sickener" for any who acted on our advice.

But the dog is returning to half of its vomit. We're now putting up one of those very same horses for the Dubai World Cup on 28 March.

Which some readers, mindful of having hurled the betting slips in the bin a couple of weeks ago, might not take well to. By all means sit this one out.

Here we go anyhow.

Magnitude was the horse that spiked an untimely fever 20 days ago, thereby shredding our and your betting slips. The fever didn't last long, but of course long enough for him not to travel to Saudi. In the word of the owner's racing manager, David Fiske: "[Magnitude ] looked fantastic, and then I get a call early the next morning – never a good sign – and [he] had a temperature of 104. But within about 48 hours, he was back to normal."

With the incident barely making a dent in his training schedule, Steve Asmussen's 4-year-old now has his sights set on Dubai, but will first take in the Razorback Stakes at Oaklawn Park this weekend (risk obviously attached, see final paragraph).

So why back this horse now? The crux of the answer to that is 25/1. The bookmakers have proved immune to the newsflow of Magnitude's revised choice of Middle Eastern target (if they picked up on it at all). But in all likelihood they will respond immediately to his return in the Razorback on Sunday 2 March, and we can see this price crashing if he runs in that as well as we expect.

Key drivers of the rationale for this bet:

• Magnitude was 12/1 for the Saudi Cup at the point of scratching. The Dubai World Cup looks unlikely to be a stronger than the Saudi Cup, and we suspect it will be weaker. Yet this son of Not This Time is double the price in this spot. This screams betting anomaly to us; he seems a strong candidate for second favourite.
  

• Beyond dirt superstar Forever Young, the betting for this race has more holes in it than a Swiss cheese. Bookies' second favourite Journalism (6/1) is most unlikely to be flying over. There is no newsflow to that effect, and after an extended break (following the Breeders Cup) Mike McCarthy's colt only worked for the first time on 22 February: three furlongs in a leisurely 36.80, 11th fastest of 19 works at the distance. This is not the pattern or timing of a horse headed to Dubai.
  

• Of the three co-third favourites at 8/1... Imperial Emperor blew out in this last year and has never beaten a top American dirt horse; Nysos will not be returning to the Middle East following his stellar Saudi run (per Baffert); defending champion Hit Show does indeed have a decent each-way chance but lucked out last year with Forever Young's distressing sampling fiasco. In any case, he was beaten by Magnitude on the only occasion those horses have met – yet he is a third of the selection's price. We so want the 4-year-old over the 6-year-old at these prices.
  

• Last year's runner up in the betting, Mixto (12/1) has been retired, while Romantic Warrior (also 12/1) is not up for a Middle East rematch with Forever Young but is being kept in Hong Kong for a spring campaign. Just nonsense filler in the betting.
  

• Trainer Steve Asmussen does not shoot at the moon overseas record when shipping horses to the Middle East. His three horses to have run in the Dubai World Cup have finished 1-2-5. Take this guy seriously.

What stops the 25/1 being a bet for the ages are two major negatives (aside from a third nausea contender, see below), which anyone contemplating a wager should be alive to.

• The first is that even Magnitude's best race is unlikely to beat Forever Young, bar something extraodinary happening. This is essentially a 5/1 play on the place part of the bet, with the 25/1 win element being a tilt at windmills.

  
  

• The second is that this betting angle is predicated on Magnitude winning, or at least performing very well in, the Razorback Stakes at Oaklawn Park this weekend. That might not happen, in which case the Dubai raid might be shelved. There's risk here, so you may well want to wait this weekend out, even though we haven't.

  
  

• And finally, there's the third horse of the apocalypse (although "canine emetic" would be a better description) in the form of another spiked fever or some other minor niggle that prevents Magnitude contesting the race. In other words the usual antepost risk.

We'd be truly gutted if this third scenario came to pass.

But if it does, we promise to take the dog to the vet.

Recommendation Back Magnitude each-way at 25/1 to win the Dubai World Cup on 28 March with Bet365, William Hill, or Unibet.