Saudi Derby: US speedster a win-only play to obliterate field

The Saudi Derby brings together talented 3yo colts from all corners of the northern hemisphere. Japan brings two of their best and a trio of intriguing back-ups, the local opposition is headed by an unbeaten 7-length winner of the Saudi Guineas, Europe brings a couple of unlikely-but-who-knows types, and the Americans are as numerous as they have ever been with four contenders.

With the impossibility of accurately comparing form lines across different racing nations at different distances on different types of dirt surface, it's not surprising that the bookmakers have struggled to land on a clear favourite. In the end they have decided that the Japanese pair Satono Voyage and Best Green are the most likely winners.

We find it surprising that the US challenge is dismissed as second tier in the betting. True, they've only won one of the six editions, but they've only just been beaten in two (runner-up), and two contenders in particular are eye-catching at the prices, not least as they are also better drawn (Japanese pair above both drew wide). Obliteration (8/1): Steve Asmussen has a very good record when bringing horses to the Middle East, which includes coming agonizingly close in this race with Cowan back in 2021. And there's no doubt in our minds that he is bringing over the fastest horse in the race in Obliteration, who compiled an impressive juvenile campaign last year over sprint distances on both dirt and turf (including fourth place in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint).

But what really caught our eye was his debut run as a 3yo at the beginning of January in the Renaissance Stakes at Oaklawn. Positioned at the back of the leading pack in 4th/5th, he took a wide path round the bend to draw parallel with the leader in an effortless manner, before exploding clear in the stretch for a 7-length win. Most impressive of all was the time (assigned a 90 Beyer), confirming him as one of the most talented sophomore colts of the current crop. He's also as experienced as any horse in this field.

The 64,000-dollar question (or actually a large multiple of that) is whether Obliteration will be able to stretch out his awesome speed to eight furlongs. We don't know, and it's possible he will be gasping for air come the furlong pole. So he's not an each-way play. But as a son of Violence out of a Master Command mare, a mile should readily be within his compass at some stage. And at 8/1, Saturday looks the right time for a bettor to find out.

By contrast, My World (7/1) has no distance questions to answer. He's unbeaten over a mile, and unbeaten since debut. That's three straight wins, most recently the Jerome Stakes from a yardstick (Balboa) who was beaten not much further in his previous run behind Paladin, who sits right at the top of the Kentucky Derby betting. As a son of Essential Quality out of an Into Mischief mare, Brad Cox's charge should love every inch of the long Riyadh straight. He's the obvious each-way play at the prices, so we'll go two-pronged here against the Japanese market leaders.

There is an argument for waiting to play My World, as some bookmakers are likely to pay a fourth place on this race. We'll take the risk now, as we just don't believe the price will hold (all other bookmakers pricing this race up are 5/1 at the time of writing).

Antepost recommendation for Saudi Derby, Riyadh, Saturday 14 February

Back Obliteration win only @ 8/1 with William Hill NRMB (same with Ladbrokes/Coral but full antepost risk)

Back My World each-way @ 7/1 with William Hill NRMB