Falmouth Stakes: This shoe's a Dream fit for Cinderella

Royal Ascot is over. Cue exhausted collapse for most journalists and traders as the flat season takes a brief lull. But there's plenty of top-level racing coming up. The Irish Derby claims top billing next weekend, the Eclipse at Sandown is less than two weeks' away, and then suddenly the next big festival is upon us – the July Meeting at Newmarket.

Where The AntePoster fancies one strongly at a decent price. Thanks to newsflow from Charlie Appleby today, we have a key nugget of information regarding one of the big Group 1 races at the July Festival, namely the Falmouth Stakes. Specifically, concerning the favourite for that race, Desert Flower: "You know she's had a race at Epsom for sure and as I've said previously the ground and the track was the undoing of us… I'm going to give her a little bit of time and there's plenty of options for her at a mile and a mile and a quarter. She's a filly who owes us nothing and for now we will give her plenty of time."

What this tells us is that an appearance in just 18 days in the Falmouth Stakes on Newmarket's July Course is most unlikely for the English 1000 Guineas winner. By contrast, the stable's star older mare Cinderella's Dream has this race firmly inked in her diary as the next port of call on the racetrack. And she looks a cracking bet at 8/1 at the time of writing. She's as short at 7/2 in places. Cinderella's Dream disappointed favourite-backers when failing to win the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge on the Wednesday of Royal Ascot at cramped odds of 5/4. But she ran an excellent race nonetheless to finish second, not least as she was giving away 3lbs in weight to every other horse in the field. Take away that penalty and she would have been beaten much less than the official 1.75 length margin entered in the record books. In all likelihood it would have been a very close thing. What's more, the straight mile of Newmarket's July Course looks like it will suit Cinderella's Dream much better than Ascot's round course. This mare's demolition of a good field over the Rowley Mile in the G2 Dahlia Stakes back in May remains one of the most impressive stakes-level performances of the distaff season so far, so a return to the similar undulations of her other "home track" looks to be very much in her favour. Jockey William Buick was quick to make this point to Appleby in the aftermath of the Duke of Cambridge, and the latter has now confirmed the Falmouth as her next target. In the absence of Desert Flower, Cinderella's Dream will go into that race as the top-rated filly or mare on Racing Post Ratings, and close to the same on official weight-adjusted ratings. Of her likely rivals, some are in indifferent form and almost every single one has alternative options, in many cases over different distances, hence many won't show up. In market order (down to the 25/1 mark):

Crimson Advocate (6/1): Duke of Cambridge winner would pose an obvious threat if turning up here. Probably will as it's her only entry, but that's not a certainty, nor it is certain that she will confirm the Ascot form with Cinderella's Dream, who was giving her weight. Has never run over a Newmarket course. Bedtime Story (12/1): Moral winner of Prix Diane over 10.5 furlongs from a much worse draw than the winner. Ran a superb race for the step up in trip, so there must be big doubts over the likelihood of being dropped back to a mile. Also entered in Pretty Polly (28 June) and Irish Oaks (19 July). January (12/1): One of many O'Brien entries. Arguably didn't have the run of the race in the Coronation Stakes, would be a clear and obvious threat if directed here. Like stablemate Bedtime Story, she is also entered in the Pretty Polly (28 June) and the Irish Oaks (19 July). Whirl (14/1): Excellent second in Epsom Oaks. Looks most unlikely candidate for 4-furlong drop in trip back to a mile. Yet another Ballydoyle filly entered in Pretty Polly (28 June) and Irish Oaks (19 July), with the latter looking the obvious target. She's Perfect (16/1): Very good twice against Zarigana this season over a mile. Bitterly disappointing in Prix Diane, where she looked beaten long before stamina should have been a problem. Not impossible if coming here but questions to answer now. No other imminent entries. Running Lion (16/1): Ran a solid fifth in Duke of Cambridge (a race she won the previous year). Flopped badly in this race last year. No other imminent entries. Spiritual (20/1): Ran best race of her life to win the Princess Margaret at Epsom at the Derby Meeting at Epsom. That was her second G3 win. In-and-out profile, but while she has never looked like a G1 type it's just possible she is now taking her form to another level. No other imminent entries. City of Memphis (20/1): Thrown straight into deep end of Irish 100 Guineas after maiden win, ran a respectable 5th of 12, beaten more than four lengths. This would look a very tough third race. Also entered in G3 Brownstown Stakes the day before the Falmouth. Elmalka (20/1): Withdrawn from Duke of Cambridge due to ground concerns. Has been very disappointing since winning 1000 Guineas last year on Rowley Mile. Also entered in Pretty Polly on 28 June, but Varian has expressed his preference to keep her over a mile now, so likely entrant. Falakeyah (20/1): Pulled her chance away in the Coronation Stakes and finished a dismal 9th, beaten more than 13 lengths. Unclear if connections will try her again over this trip (was very impressive over ten furlongs on the Rowley Mile previously). No other imminent entries.

Jabaara (25/1): Has never quite looked a Group 1 type but her best piece of form did come in this race a year ago when she was second to Porta Fortuna. However, she was beaten almost four lengths there and it looked a weak edition of the race. Fallen Angel (25/1): Good third in the Duke of Cambridge, just behind Cinderella's Dream (who was giving her weight). Connections have talked about stepping her up in trip (entered in Pretty Polly on 28 June). Did win well on July Course in only run there as a 2-year-old. Strong suspicion she would be better with cut, and one to look at seriously if the weather finally turns and she is pointed here.

In summary, there are considerable doubts about the class, form, or participation of many of the other fillies and mares in the betting, and with Desert Flower likely to bypass the race we expect Charlie Appleby's other female star Cinderella's Dream to be vying for favouritism with Crimson Advocate (IF that one goes) in two-and-a-half weeks' time. She looks to have a very strong win chance and an outstanding place chance.

Recommendation: Back Cinderella's Dream each-way at 8/1with Paddy Power or Unibet to win the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket on Friday 11 July.