French 2000 Guineas: a horse-by-horse antepost guide

The following horse-by-horse guide to the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), which will take place on Sunday 11 May, was published on the morning of Thursday 8 May just before the final withdrawal stage. Some of those listed may not be entered come final declarations. Prices given were the best available at the time of publication and are those of an antepost nature (full risk of loss with non-runners).

We are not recommending any bet at this stage, not least because the impending draw for this race is crucial: being handed a high stall in a big field is bad news as the Longchamp mile course turns right soon after the start in a way that favours the inside posts. However, the horses we like will be clear enough from the summaries below.

Henri Matisse 9/2

Wootton Bassett colt trained by Aidan O’Brien

Career figures: 111251-1

Among the most experienced in this field with seven juvenile runs. Three-win streak halted at The Curragh when veered all over the place behind Scorthy Champ but still looked like the best horse in the race. Got stuck in the mud behind stablemate Camille Pissarro in the G1 Jean-Luc Lagadere on Arc day but redeemed himself by winning the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar in November with a strong closing run. Took a while to get going on his seasonal reappearance over seven furlongs in the G3 Red Rocks in late March, but surged home late to claim the spoils. Likely to come on plenty for that run – like most of the stable’s do – and he looks a serious player here on the likely fast ground. Ryan Moore has quite the choice to make, but no surprise if he picks this colt.

Jonquil 7/1

Lope de Vega colt trained by Andrew Balding

Career figures: 16-1

Just two starts for previous trainer Michael Stoute: narrowly won his maiden in late August before disappointing in the listed Flying Scotsman at Doncaster two weeks later (no reason given). Confirmed his class emphatically upon seasonal return for new trainer in the G3 Greenham Stakes, winning well from a decent-looking field: the runner-up was top juvenile Rashabar, fourth-placed Diablo Rojo has won well since over shorter, and fifth-placed Yah Mo Be There was beaten only two lengths further in the English 2,000 Guineas last Saturday. Could well have more upside but there are queston marks too: It’s mildly concerning that his second run last year was so poor, and he probably wouldn’t want the ground to be rattling fast.

Ridari 8/1

Churchill colt trained by Mikel Delzangles

Career figures: 21-1

Slightly disappointing on debut last October but that was on heavy ground. Won minor conditions race at Chantilly in November. With that modest form he only started fourth favourite of seven (at 13/2) for the G3 Prix de Fontainebleau over this course and distance on seasonal reappearance in mid-April and did plenty wrong in that race, starting awkwardly and racing very keenly for the first furlong and a half. However, after being short of room and having to wait for a run he picked up very well in the last two furlongs and got up to win the shadow of the post. Clearly not straightforward (racing manager Nemone Mouth: “He’s a bit on his toes but he’s got a bit more mature since [that first run], at least in the mornings”) but also no doubting he has plenty of talent. Impossible to compare the form with that of the Irish and English raiders, but no telling where the ceiling lies with this colt and he surely won’t start anything like 8/1 if he draws well.

Hotazhell 8/1

Too Darn Hot colt trained by Jessica Harrington

Career figures: 411211

Beaten four lengths by Scorthy Champ on his debut in May, won his maiden three weeks later. Then took the G3 Tyros Stakes in July (beating Swagman) before being beaten just a length by Henry Matisse in the G2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh in August. Continued progression by beating Tennessee Stud in the G2 Beresford Stakes in September before capping off a fine season with a G1 win in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster. That’s an impressive CV, and one that ties his form in closely with the market leader here. A slight concern is that the stable’s other Guineas contender Green Impact was mildly disappointing in the English version last Saturday, so it remains to be seen if he’s ready to deliver fresh.

Camille Pissarro 8/1

Wootton Bassett colt trained by Aidan O’Brien

Career figures: 1202621-2

Highly experienced colt with eight runs under his belt. After a debut win at Navan in April and a narrow defeat to Arizona Blaze at the Curragh a month later he started favourite for the G2 Coventry Stakes at Ascot, but could only finish 11th of 22 on the fastest ground he has encountered. Then beaten half a length by Babouche in the G3 Anglesey Stakes back at The Curragh in July before disappointing as favourite on English soil once again in the G2 Gimcrack at York, finishing a well-beaten sixth of ten. His third and final race on English soil last year (again as favourite) saw him miss out by a nose in the Weatherby’s £300,00 2-Y-O Stakes at Doncaster in September. On the back of those three consecutive defeats on foreign soil he was sent off as an outsider for the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc Day, but proved his 12/1 price all wrong by storming home in the mud to overtake Rashabar in the final half furlong. Beaten first time out this season at The Curragh, but that was against some decent horses (winner was a good older horse, third-placed Officer has won well since and shortened dramatically in the betting for the Irish 2000 Guineas). Bound to come on for that run given stable’s modus operandi and his course win at G1 level can’t be ignored, but there’s a strong suspicion from analysis of his CV that he’s best with more give underfoot.

Sahlan 12/1

Wootton Bassett colt trained by Francis-Henri Graffard

Career figures: 1-2

The most lightly-raced colt in the field with just the two runs on his CV. Dominant, four-length winner of his only race as a juvenile on the all-weather track at Deauville in late November, and it’s worth noting that the runner-up was only narrowly beaten in mid-March by Cualificar, who is the current favourite for the Prix du Jockey Club. Ran extremely well on return in the Prix du Fontainebleau a few weeks ago, taking up the lead a furlong-and-a-half from home and only headed by Ridari in the final strides (beaten just a nose). The latter looked the best horse that day given how much he did wrong, but who knows which horse will progress most from that contest and this fellow looks more straightforward.

Aomori City 12/1

Oasis Dream colt trained by Charlie Appleby

Career figures: 13143-3

Debut winner at 4/6, then thrown straight into the deep waters of the G2 July Stakes at Newmarket, where he acquitted himself respectably by finishing 2.5 lengths behind Whistlejacket. Good winner of the G2 Vintage Stakes Glorious Goodwood two weeks later, then beaten almost three lengths in the (much stronger) G1 National Stakes at the Curragh on Irish Champions Weekend in September. Came home powerfully from the rear to be beaten less than a length by Henri Matisse in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf to round off his season. Returned to the racetrack in April to finish just behind Wimbledon Hawkeye in the G3 Craven Stakes at Newmarket, where both colts were beaten easily by Field of Gold (arguably best horse in English 2000 Guineas). Evidently a notch or two down the three-year-old pecking order in Appleby’s yard, but that stable is on fire et the moment so a good showing is difficult to rule out from its sole representative in this race, for all that he doesn’t look a likely winner on the form book.

Detain 16/1

Wootton Bassett colt trained by John & Thady Gosden

Career figures: 116-1

Two easy wins on the all-weather track at Kempton in August and early October last year set this colt up for a tilt at the G1 Futurity Trophy at Doncaster later that month, where he weakened badly in the final furlong to finish sixth of eight, beaten 8 lengths. He’s nowhere near good enough to win this contest on the basis of that form, nor on the basis of his narrow victory in a conditions race at Chelmsford upon his return in early April, but neither the Gosdens nor owners Juddmonte are renowned for tilting at windmills, so if he draws well he’s an interesting wild card in conditions that look right for him (G1 Futurity flop was on soft).

Misunderstood 16/1

Hello Youmzain colt trained by Mario Barotti

Career figures: 113-3

Very good juvenile: improved on narrow debut win at Deauville in July to thrash four rivals in the G3 Prix des Chenes over a mile at Longchamp in September (albeit beating nothing of note), before then dropping back to 7 furlongs for the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc Day, where he finished just two lengths behind Camille Pissarro in third. Adopted front-running role in all those races and resumed that run style on his return for the G3 Prix de Fontainebleau in April, where he proved no match for Ridari and Sahlan – indeed, the latter passed him a good furlong-and-a-half from home. Difficult to see him pulling off a front-running victory in this much deeper race so he looks a most unlikely winner, but could lead them a long way if he’s come forward for that seasonal reappearance.

Luther 20/1

Frankel colt trained by Charlie Fellowes

Career figures: 1215-2

Won on his debut in June, then narrowly beaten in a listed race at Salisbury in August by a good colt in New Century, who would go on to win a G1 at Woodbine on his next start and finish a close fourth to Henri Matisse in the Breeders Juvenile Turf. Got back in the winning groove in a listed race at Haydock in September, then well beaten on soft ground in the G2 Royal Lodge Newmarket in September won by Wimbledon Hawkeye. Beaten a length by Detain on his seasonal reappearance on the all-weather surface at Chelmsford in early April. On the balance of his form he looks out of his depth here, but his trainer gave French 1000 Guineas favourite Zarigana a big scare in the Prix de la Grotte a few weeks ago with stablemate Shes Perfect and presumably sees plenty of potential in this colt. Intriguing outsider.

Tipinso 25/1

Pinatubo colt trained by Jean-Claude Rouget

Career figures: 11-2

All three career runs recorded down in Toulouse: odds-on winner of a six-horse race on debut in September (good ground), narrow winner of a listed race in November (very soft), then beaten on reappearance in April (heavy ground). Nothing he has done on this provincial racetrack gives him a right to be a player here, but it would be dangerous to completely dismiss the sole representative of this leading French trainer who has taken more than one unexposed type to glory at the highest level.

Houquetot 25/1

Wootton Bassett colt trained by Christopher Head

Career figures: 11217

Has raced exclusively over seven furlongs. Won first two starts, then second to Joseph O’Brien’s Cowardofthecounty in the G3 Prix Francois Boutin at Deauville in August. Back to winning ways in the G3 Prix La Rochette at Longchamp (without beating much of note) before coming home seventh of nine, beaten 4 lengths, behind Camille Pissarro in the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day. Has a lot to find on all known form on this seasonal reappearance, and his presence here may well be owner-driven.

Heybetli 33/1

Showcasing colt trained by Alicja Karkosa

Career figures: 21126-4

Won two of his first four starts, finishing runner-up to Houquetot on the other two occasions. Then finished just ahead of that rival when sixth of nine in the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere behind Camille Pissarro. Recorded a respectable fourth behind Ridari, Sahlan and Misunderstood in the Prix de Fontainebleau on seasonal reappearance. All that form suggests he is below top class and it’s very difficult to see this colt reversing form with the less-exposed rivals who comfortably beat him last time out.

Dos Mukasan 33/1

Golden Horde colt trained by Christopher Head

Career figures: 141-1

Won on debut at Compiegne in September. Sank like a stone next time out when thrown into deeper waters of the G3 Prix Thomas Bryon at Saint-Cloud, trailing home nine lengths behind leading French juvenile Maranoa Charlie, but resumed winning ways in a conditions race at Chantilly in November. Won a conditions race over this course and distance on his reappearance three weeks ago, and is now once again being thrown in the deep end. This colt is very difficult to make a case for, another whose participation may be owner-driven.

Selenien 33/1

Mehmas colt trained by Didier Guillemin

Career figures: 221-1

Narrowly beaten on career debut in August on good ground, and again just missed out on his second start on heavy ground a month later, both runs coming on small provincial tracks. However, was an emphatic eight-length winner of a conditions race in a good time on the all-weather track at Chantilly in mid-October to round out his juvenile season. His seasonal reappearance in another conditions race at the same venue, again on the all-weather, told us nothing new other than confirming his well-being (comfortable winner at odds of 4/5). The field he faces here is a different proposition altogether, but it’s far from clear where this colt’s ceiling lies. One of the livelier outsiders.

Serengeti 66/1

Wootton Bassett colt trained by Aidan O’Brien

Career figures: 631-6

Beaten two lengths on debut by fellow Ballydoyle inmate Expanded on that colt’s first start, then beaten six lengths by Twain on that stablemate’s first start. Rounded off juvenile season by winning a maiden race on the all-weather track at Dundalk. Trailed in 21 lengths behind the winner on reappearance in a handicap in late March. Likely pacemaker angle here if he turns up at all.

Zarraf 66/1

Zarak colt trained by Alicja Karkosa

Career figures: 14

Only made his debut six weeks ago, narrowly winning a maiden race at Saint-Cloud. Gelded thereafter and returned from that procedure to finish fourth (been just over four lengths) in a conditions race at Longchamp won by Dos Mukasan. Has a mountain of improvement to find.

Reach The Sky 66/1

Calyx colt trained by Patrice Cottier

Career figures: 136

Won on debut at Lyon in February, narrowly beaten into third in a conditions race at Marseille in March, finished sixth of seven behind Cualificar (beaten just under four lengths) over 9 furlongs here at the beginning of April. That last-named winner has at least won well since to the extent that he is now favourite for the Prix du Jockey Club, but it’s still quite a leap of faith to see this one being competitive here.

Rock of Cashel 66/1

Wootton Basset colt trained by Aidan O’Brien

Career figures: 81465-6

Well beaten on debut, won maiden next time out. Has been tried at a very high level (G2, G1, G1, G3) on all subsequent starts without ever looking competitive. Pacemaking duties if entered at all.