Godolphin Mile: Banish negative thoughts and go for a world record

[this is an NRMB market: there is no antepost/non-runner risk attached to these bets]

Backing horses that have been well beaten on their most recent starts can obviously be a risky business, but in some cases the market's over-reaction calls for involvement.

We believe this applies to the 12-runner Godolphin Mile run on Meydan's dirt course this Saturday, where the two favourites heading the market – Commissioner King (9/4) and Mendelssohn Bay (7/2) – have decent chances but hardly tower above this field on form.

Instead we like the US horse Banishing, who we consider well overpriced at 8/1 to take the first (non-Arab) race of the night. With an official rating on a par with the two market leaders, his form is every bit as good as that pair's and arguably better – as long as you can find good reasons for his poor two recent performances, namely 6th of 11 in the Pegasus World Cup in January (beaten 11+ lengths) and 8th of 13 in the Saudi World Cup in February (beaten 10+ lengths).

We think we can.

For starters, these races were serious Grade/Group 1 affairs, and when this aspect is borne in mind he didn't run badly at all in either in view of the significant class drop he will enjoy on Saturday. What's more, David Jacobson's charge ran rather better than the finishing result in both contests: he was hampered early on and lost ground as well as crucial position in the Pegasus at Gulfstream, while in the Saudi Cup he contested a fierce pace and actually led the field into the straight. Hardly surprising that he emptied quickly once the top-class Nysos and Forever Young surged past, with the final furlong being his weakest by quite some margin. With this in mind, the drop back to a mile clearly works in his favour.

As further positives, Banishing has a good draw in 4 and boasts excellent wet track form (short head behind the top-class, now retired Mindframe). Saturday is due to be sunny again in Dubai, but the amounts of rain forecast for the next few days are in biblical territory, and in view of regional realities it's unlikely they'll be getting UAE military helicopters in to dry the track out like they famously did at Nad Al Sheba before the 1997 edition of the race. Who knows what the track will ride like, but this chap is versatile.

As a further wild play, we cannot resist taking a flyer on rank outsider World Record, who was even further out with the washing in his last race (last of ten in the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal, a traditional prep for the Dubai Golden Shaheen). How did we end up on this one then?

Five angles:

• World Record has serious back class: Before moving to the Middle East this winter he had run 11 times in the USA, winning 4 (including the G2 Amsterdam Stakes) and placing 5 times (including in the G1 Bing Crosby). That's a superb CV for a race like this.

  
  

• His first Meydan start was a disaster pure and simple, but he may well come on leaps and bounds for it. New trainer Bhupat Seemar is a dab hand at getting the best out of horses inherited from elsewhere.

  
  

• We are intrigued by the step up to a mile for the first time. With his sprinter's speed, World Record should have a much better chance of establishing a decent track position, and as a son of Gun Runner the extra distance should be within his compass.

  
  

• He's never encountered anything but a fast track, but Gun Runner found only the late, great Arrogate too good on sealed wet track in the Dubai World Cup a decade ago, and there's a good chance his son will handle underfoot conditions on Saturday. Indeed, he might well prefer them to the fast track he encountered on his Middle East debut.

  
  

• He's well drawn in 3 and has one of the world's top dirt jockeys aboard in Jose Ortiz.

We emphasize once again that this outsider is a high-risk bet, as there is a good chance things will all go wrong for World Record again on Saturday. But some bookmakers have priced him up at 25/1 (he's 12/1 with the more judicious), and that's badly wrong in our view, so we embrace the clear flop risk attached to this horse with open eyes.

With both these picks, we are not recommending taking a lower price once the current recommended prices go. There's a chance that four places will be offered on the eve of the race, so if you miss the price, wait till closer to the race.

Recommendations for Godolphin Mile, Meydan racecourse, Saturday 28 March:

Back Banishing each-way at 8/1 (generally available, although not Bet365).

Back World Record each-way at 25/1 with Bet365 or William Hill.