Japan Cup: Back two outsiders with crack course form

This is a flash article due to the limited window of opportunity.

In our updated antepost guide to the Japan Cup published earlier today, it was clarified that a number of the horses originally envisioned for this race are most unlikely to participate. These include the withdrawn European contenders Goliath and Los Angeles, and a number of key Japanese horses who are either unlikely or almost certain not to make the race.

The latter include Redentor (not back from injury), Bellagio Opera (skipping the race in favour of the Hong Kong Vase), and Meisho Tabaru (skipping the race in favour of the Arima Kinen). Doubts are also hanging over Tastiera (also possible for Hong Kong, where he has run two excellent races in the last year) and third favourite Croix du Nord . The latter is targeting this race, but connections have admitted it's not impossible it comes too soon in which case he too will likely divert to the Arima Kinen at the end of the year.

This looks like a race to play before markets readjust, not least as favourite Calandagan has to travel to Japan, go through quarantine, and face a completely new environment and an unfamiliar track.

We suggest playing two horses each-way coming out of disappointing shows in Europe, Danon Decile and Shin Emperor. They can currently be backed at 10/1 and 20/1 respectively, and we think these prices represent excellent value.

More on this pair can be found on our website article here, but essentially the case for backing them is as follows:

Danon Decile: Beat Calandagan in their only meeting (April '25, Sheema Classic). Has only run once at Tokyo over 12 furlongs, easily winning the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in June '24. Strong candidate to bounce back from unsuccessful European raid, and one of the likely winners if he does.

Shin Emperor: Has run twice at Tokyo. Third in the aforementioned Tokyo Yushun won by Danon Decile. Dead-heated for second in Japan Cup last year, beaten just a neck by Japanese champion Do Deuce. Training well, overpriced.

Recommendations:

Back Danon Decile each-way at 10/1 with Ladbrokes or Coral to win the Japan Cup at Tokyo racecourse on 30 November. Acceptable down to 8/1 (if available, not currently offered).

Back Shin Emperor each-way at 20/1 with William Hill to win the same race. The 16/1 with Corals and Ladbrokes is also acceptable once the 20/1 has been cut.