Japan Cup: Take a sling at 6/1 Goliath

IMPORTANT: AS OF 14/11 THE BEST PRICE ON GOLIATH IS NOW WITH BET365 NOT WILLIAM HILL AS PER RECOMMENDATION BLOW

If statistical analysis were to be restricted to just the last couple of decades, the Japan Cup would look an impossible prize for the Europeans to capture. Deep Impact’s victory for the home side in 2006 kicked off an unbroken sequence stretching to this day, with Equinox’s breathtaking victory last year being the 18th consecutive Japanese success in the race. That’s a daunting obstacle for any European raider to surmount come 24 November 2024.

In part, this recent dominance is a reflection of Japan’s rise to becoming a global powerhouse of horse racing, and in middle distance turf races in particular. Indeed, it’s difficult to argue with the view that Japan is now the world’s no. 1 nation at distances of twelve furlongs and upwards on the turf, as well as being highly competitive at ten furlongs. Go back to the first two decades of the Japan Cup (inaugurated in 1981), however, and the picture looks very different – Japanese-trained runners took just two of the first ten runnings of this trophy between 1981 and 1990, before honours worked out even between home side and the rest of the world over the following decade. Fast-forward to today and it’s all about Japanese-bred and Japanese-trained (albeit often not Japanese-ridden) horses in the winner’s enclosure.

Europe loses interest

But there’s another reason for Japan’s domination of its most valuable race over the last couple of decades. Back in the day (read last century), Europe in particular used to send some good ‘uns around the globe. World-beaters such as Singspiel and Pilsudski proved that they were just that, taking their superstar status to far-flung destinations such as the US, Hong Kong and Canada, winning the Japan Cup in back-to-back years in 1996-97. Stanerra, Jupiter Island, Le Glorieux, Lando and Falbrav likewise chalked up victories in Japan for European-based trainers in the 20th century. But that trend came to an abrupt end shortly after the new millennium began, and high-class European runners have been a rare sight in Tokyo at the end of November ever since.

How can we explain the diminishing appeal of the Orient for the Occident when the purse on offer has always been huge? There are a number of reasons, but the increasing preference of owners of European horses to call it a day when a potential stallion has proved himself top-class by the age of four (or even three) would be high on the list. Stallion value and breeding considerations have come to weigh ever more heavily in the decision-making process when it comes to allowing racehorses to be continue to be mounted by jockeys as opposed to mounting mares. As a result, the pool of high-class older racehorses in training in Europe is now far shallower than it used to be.

As an additional factor, no top-class European colts – many of whom will have a heavy-ground Arc de Triomphe in Paris or an Ascot Champion Stakes in their legs – are ever likely to be sent to Japan after a campaign that will typically have begun in April at the latest. Trainers and owners understandably prefer to play a cautious game when they have a young star on their hands.

Last but not least, there is the increasing allure of the Breeders Cup extravaganza in the US. This meeting is crucially held several weeks before the Japan Cup, which means it has a better end-of-season calendar fit for European connections. More to the point, the highly valuable Breeders Cup Turf is run over the same distance as the Japan Cup and is more winnable from a European perspective – US turf horses are nothing like as formidable opponents over middle distances, and entrants from Japan tend to be of second-tier quality as the true stars stick to their domestic programme of valuable turf prizes at the end of October, November and December.

France and Ireland sending over big guns this year

That said, the likely field of this year’s edition of the Japan Cup hints at a nascent trend reversal, as for the first time in quite a while Europe is sending over two serious contenders. Co-second favourite in the betting (at 5/1) is Auguste Rodin, one of the last sons of the aforementioned Deep Impact, with that pedigree being the primary reason why the powerhouse Ballydoyle operation has chosen this race to showcase the talent of this multiple Group-1 winner for one final time. However, this in-and-out type doesn’t appeal as an antepost bet at all. Inconsistency aside, even his trainer Aidan O’Brien has admitted that his charge is not that well-suited to a strongly-run 12 furlongs, hardly a ringing endorsement for the second favourite in a race like the Japan Cup, where stamina matters. Rodin’s most recent win at this trip last November (Breeders Cup Turf) came at Santa Anita, where a turn of foot is the key asset over that turf configuration, and his only runs at the same distance in 2024 (at Meydan and Ascot) both resulted in heavy defeats at short prices.

Goliath is an altogether different proposition. This son of Adlerflug had none of Auguste Rodin’s early precocity, being unraced at two and growing into his frame only gradually at three. But this gelding has come of age as a four-year-old, and stamina is clearly his forte. What’s more, he now boasts arguably the top piece of middle-distance turf form recorded anywhere on the planet this year by virtue of his sensational win in Ascot’s King George VI Stakes on good-to-firm ground back in July. Here he was followed home (at a respectful 2.25 lengths) by subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking, with subsequent Breeders Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance a further 3.25 lengths back in third. That’s white-hot form by any standards.

Another appealing aspect is the way Goliath’s connections have deliberately rested their charge with a view to bringing him to Japan in top shape. He was given three months off following his Ascot exertions, and his comeback run in late October was just fine – heavy ground in the Prix du Conseil de Paris at Longchamp provided the kind of stern test he might easily have failed, but he rose to the challenge and got the job done. Having handled that going with aplomb, any moisture in the Tokyo turf in two weeks’ time will inconvenience him far less than most of his rivals (most notably Auguste Rodin and current 4/1 favourite Do Deuce, both of whom are clearly at their best on fast ground).

There will be plenty of classy rivals lining up alongside Goliath at Tokyo racecourse come the last Sunday in November, not least Do Deuce (whose sectionals in the 10-furlong Tenno Sho on 27 October were quite something), so a win is no “gimme”. But it’s a curiosity that Francis-Henri Graffard’s gelding is only fourth favourite when on all the global form rankings he is the horse to beat. Indeed, the AntePoster cannot recall ever seeing an antepost market for a G1 turf race less than three weeks out where the “best horse in the race” on paper, and in the form of his life, has been quite so big a price. Goliath may not prove up to the task on the day, but the chance of him winning is surely not one in seven – which is what William Hill are effectively offering.

Recommendation: Back Goliath to win the Japan Cup @6/1 with William Hill (win only)