July Cup: Keep this sprint simple with the best horse in the race

Newmarket's mid-summer sprint showpiece is shaping up to be a cracker. The winners of the big three sprints at Ascot – Mission Central (KCIII), Venetian Sun (CC) and Almeraq (QEII) – have all turned up here, so something must give on Saturday at 4.35 pm local time. Which of these speedsters will prevail?

It's very difficult to compare these horses' performances at Ascot, as they came on different days of the Royal Meeting, hence with slightly different ground conditions and different pace dynamics. But clearly, as suggested by the top of this betting market, it would come as no surprise if either of these high-quality sprinters claimed the spoils.

All that said, we reckon the best bet lies elsewhere. Venetian Sun looks much too short given the likelihood of rattling fast ground and swirling doubts over her being in season. Mission Central has to prove that he can deliver his best form away from Ascot (scene of his best two performances). And while Almeraq absolutely has a chance, we think the biggest danger comes from a horse who finished the length of just a well-smoked cigarette behind him at Ascot last time.

Indeed, there is a reasonable case to be made that Satono Reve is the best horse in this race, and we believe the punter is being generously treated by being offered 5/1 for the Japanese horse to prove that on Saturday:

• It's not just our subjective view that Satono Reve can claim to be the best horse in this race: he is the top-rated horse on Timeform ratings, and co-top-rated by both the Racing Post (with Mission Central) and official handicap ratings (with Almeraq);

	Official ratings	RPRs	Timeform	Cumulative
Satono Reve	119	128	129	376
Almeraq	119	125	126	370
Venetian Sun	115	126	128	369
Mission Central	115	128	126	369

• Noriyuki Hori's charge is an extremely consistent performer, having won 9 of his 19 starts. His lifetime finishing positions look all the most impressive when one bears in mind he has faced Ka Ying Rising on four occasions (second twice, third once).

  
  

• Ascot is one of the most stamina-searching tracks on the planet over six furlongs, whereas the July Cup is run over a course that is more speed-favouring (significantly faster win times). We believe this is to Satono Reve's advantage, as his numerous wins in his native Japan have on average been run some five seconds quicker than Ascot's six-furlong test.

  
  

• In the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, Satono Reve initially had to plough a lone furrow on the wing, making his own running in a separate group for much of the race. That's not his preferred run style, and we would argue his performance there needs upgrading.

  
  

• Bizarre though it may sound for a Japanese horse, the July Cup is more akin to a "home fixture" for Satono Reve, as he has been based at James Horton's Beech House Stables in Newmarket ever since flying to the UK prior to the Royal Meeting. This means complete acclimatisation, familiarity with Newmarket's terrain, and negligible travel prior the race.

  
  

• Ignoring the races that feature the prohibitively short priced Ka Ying Rising, the prices Satono Reve has started in his last six Group 1 races read 2/1, 14/5, 2/1, 6/5, 5/2, 5/2. His price for Saturday's July Cup, namely 5/1, is a complete outlier.

In summary, while the July Cup is a race that several horses can win, we think Satono Reve is simply overpriced to be first past the post. And we are backing him accordingly.

Recommendation: Back Satono Reve at 5/1 to win the July Cup with Bet365, Paddy Power or Betway. The 9/2 available everywhere else is OK too. For those who like the each-way angle, Skybet's four-place terms are standout so their 9/2 is preferable to 5/1 on three-place terms. However, for purposes of our P&L this is a win-only recommendation.