Summer Stakes: No angels among these sinners, so take a price

York's impending John Smith's Meeting, which coincides with Newmarket's July Meeting a 130 miles or so to the southeast, features a highly competitive Group 3 for fillies (all ages) over six furlongs on the Friday. It's known as the Summer Stakes.

The AntePoster is attracted to this antepost market because there is at least one large question mark (and in some cases, several) over every single horse. Not a single filly in this field could be described as a model pupil, but crucially that's particularly true of those sitting at the top of the market. Specifically:

• Spicy Marg ran the race of her life last time out to give Commonwealth Cup favourite Venetian Sun a right scare, and is actually one of the more consistent fillies in this field. However, there's one glaring and obvious flaw: how can we overlook the fact that she was last of 17 on the only occasion she has raced at York? OK, so that was an elite Group 1 in the form of the Nunthorpe Stakes, but the punter can get another horse from that race (see below) who finished 5 lengths ahead of her that day at more than three times the price for this contest. We're just wary.

  
  

• Flora of Bermuda is in the July Cup too, and while she may well not take up that engagement there's no guarantee that this filly will perform to her best if rerouted here. She was last in the QEII at Ascot last time out (beaten 39 lengths) after giving trouble in the stalls (not for the first time) and has three sub-par performances in her last five races, so hardly appeals as a filly to take a short price on.

  
  

• Royal Fixation ran the least impressive race of her life last time out on her debut for Karl Burke (seasonal debut too), so we have yet to see proof that this exciting two-year-old has trained on. She might well come forward for that run (7th of 10 in the listed Carnavon Stakes at Newbury), but the fact that connections are still steering her away from top company (won a G2 and was placed in a G1 last season) suggests to us that enthusiasm is being tempered;

  
  

• Beautiful Diamond has bounced back to something like her best recently, but there's a strong suspicion this filly prefers a bit of give underfoot nowadays, something that looks most unlikely to materialize at York on Friday. What's more, she's also entered in the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh ten days later, and we wouldn't be surprised at all to see her diverted there instead.

So where should we go from here? As it's quite easy to pick holes in a number of other fillies lower down the betting (no more detail on that, but Fitzella and First Instinct would be obvious mentions), we are going to play two firmly intended runners at prices against this "field of sinners" before final declarations are made tomorrow morning: America Queen (14/1) and Celandine (16/1).

America Queen: Could only finish 8th of 16 last time out in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot, but that was a much stronger race for the grade than this one. What's more, she led at a fast pace for much of that seven-furlong race and is now back in distance at an easier track. Was previously second in the Nell Gwyn (also seven furlongs) on seasonal debut – here too she led until the final half-furlong before being passed by the winner, but still seeing off the likes of Fitzella and Inis Mor. As a two-year-old she was beaten only a length by Royal Fixation in the G2 Lowther Stakes over course and distance, while also finishing a creditable fourth to True Love in the G1 Cheveley Park (reducing the deficit to Royal Fixation to half a length). We think this filly of Richard Hughes is very classy and consider her overpriced here.

Celandine: Ed Walker's filly was our pick in this race last year, and delivered on our each-way money in third on that occasion, but she also has two other decent bits of York form on her CV: an excellent win in the G2 Lowther Stakes in 2024, and a staying-on eighth of 17 in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes last August, where she finished some 5 lengths ahead of Spicy Marg, who heads the betting here. A fast six furlongs at York really is Celandine's bag, so what's not to like? Ah, therein lies the problem. This sinner is in danger of falling into the lowest level of Dante's Inferno on recent form, having finished plumb last on her most run over five furlongs (albeit having missed the break and been bumped at the start). Indeed, Ed Walker is quoted in The Weekender tonight to the effect that she may well be retired in the absence of a good showing. But that last run was over five furlongs, a trip she has never scored over, and the return to her beloved York could just rekindle the spark. Win only.

In summary, both of these fillies have questions to answer, particularly Celandine, but they are both extremely talented and the punter is getting quite a price for the sins of this pair, who will hardly be rubbing shoulders with "form angels" when they enter the starting gates on the Knavesmire.

Recommendations for Summer Stakes, York, Friday 10 June:

Back America Queen each-way at 14/1 generally (but not Bet365 or Unibet)

Back Celandine win only at 16/1 generally (but not William Hill or Unibet).