Kentucky Oaks 2025 - antepost preview and full field analysis
- The Anteposter
- Apr 22
- 16 min read
Updated: Apr 23
Introduction
Europe is about to stage its first "Classic" weekend of the flat horse racing season in the form of the 2,000 Guineas and the 1,000 Guineas over a mile, contested at Newmarket racecourse in the UK on the weekend of 3/4 May. The US will mirror that pairing over the same weekend, but here it's all about the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, run over 10 and 9 furlongs respectively. The last-named – the "Lilies for the Fillies" – is the first of these Classic races to play out, and will be run in the evening (European time) of Friday 2 May at Churchill Downs racecourse, which will then host the much more prestigious Kentucky Derby just 24 hours later. Unlike the colts' Classic in Louisville, which is a 20-horse race in which bad draws and hard-luck stories are an integral part of the razzmatazz, the Kentucky Oaks features a maximum field of 14, which makes it a more manageable exercise for the bettor. Quite aside from a smaller field lending itself to less chaos, betting on the Oaks in advance is no great drawback as the draw for post positions is statistically much less relevant – indeed, over the last 20 years fillies drawn in the supposedly disadvantageous wide stalls 10-14 have a higher percentage of placing than those with single-figure draws. What presents more of a conundrum is the presence this year of what will likely be an overwhelming favourite in the form of Good Cheer from the Brad Cox barn, already as low as 6/4 in European antepost markets. But why is that a conundrum? Statistically, being a favourite in the Kentucky Oaks has been something of a kiss of death in recent decades. Favourites have won just nine of the race's last 34 runnings, and the fate of truly short-priced favourites reads like a chronicle of financial ruin: Nine fillies have started odds-on during this timeframe, just three have won.
Yet bypassing Good Cheer is quite a leap to make. She's never been beaten (in six runs), she's never really been challenged, and she's never had another filly anywhere near her tail when passing the winning post. The last time a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro came into this race as heavy favourite – a certain Rachel Alexandra – she romped and came home 20 lengths clear of the field. Incidentally, that filly didn't possess an unbeaten record coming into this race. Food for thought – in more (betting) ways than one, as we elaborate on below.
After our horse-by-analysis we provide our final thoughts on which horses look playable, and the way they should be played by those who like them. This is emphatically not a recommendation to back them all, but our idea of how a betting approach might be structured with British and Irish bookmakers as well as the betting exchanges if you are keen on a particular filly. Last but not least, the final paragraph all contains an important observation regarding the weather and the horses most likely to cope best if Kentucky Oaks day comes up rainy. Which it quite often does.
Enjoy the read.
Horse-by-horse analysis
The analysis below was published on 22 April, and the prices given below were accurate at that point but are obviously subject to change.
The stars (⭐) in the table denote relative appeal of horse as an antepost (futures) bet at the time of writing, whereby five stars indicates an extremely attractive bet and one star an extremely unattractive one.
Good Cheer
Medaglia d’Oro – Wedding Toast (Street Sense)
Trainer: Brad Cox Likely jockey: Luis Saez
Lifetime form figures: 1111-11 Top Beyer speed figure: 91
Profile
Immediately emerged as a serious talent with an 8-length win on her debut last August, a margin of victory she would double on her next start a month later. Trainer Brad Cox might well have been tempted to take this filly straight to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies on the back of that run but as connections already had the favourite for that race in his stable (Immersive) he opted for a relatively low-key path with this late starter, pointing her to a listed race at Churchill Downs in late October (won by just under 5 lengths) followed by the G2 Golden Rod at the same venue at the end of November (beat Quietside by 2.5 lengths). Good Cheer's unbeaten streak has continued this year with wide-margin wins in the G2 Rachel Alexandra and the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks, both run down in New Orleans. She possesses a late-running style with a relentless stretch drive that no rival yet has been able to handle, and may actually improve for the step up to 9 furlongs (last five races have been over 8.5 furlongs). Sceptics might observe that she hasn't faced any horse of note in her two races this year (as suggested by starting prices of 1/20 and 1/5), hasn't yet competed at G1 level, and doesn't appear to have any speed figure edge over her key rivals here. On the other hand, she has been consistently brilliant so far and her shortest winning margin (2.5 lengths) came at the expense of the second choice in the betting in this race, so she stands out on form as well as visual impressions. Should prove a formidable opponent, and as her widest-margin victory was in the slop at Churchill Downs she looks weather-proof too.
Betting observations
Recommended to followers by The AntePoster at 14/1 back in December, the unbeaten Good Cheer is rightly a short-priced favourite. However, we don't believe the current 6/4 offers much in the way of value, particularly in an antepost market where non-runner risk is still attached. Come race day she may well have betting appeal in the "Good Cheer to win by X lengths" markets, as a decisive, wide-margin victory would come as no surprise whatsoever.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
6/4 (generally available) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Quietside
Malibu Moon – Benner Island (Speightstown)
Trainer: John Ortiz Likely jockey: Jose Ortiz
Lifetime form figures: 1232-211 Top Beyer speed figure: 90
Profile
Facile winner on debut at Saratoga last August, prompting connections to throw her straight into G1 waters in the Spinaway Stakes later that month. Beaten 1.25 lengths into second by Immersive there, then finished 3.25 lengths behind the same rival when claiming third place in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar in November. Raced just one more time in 2004, finishing second to Good Cheer (beaten 2.5 lengths) in the G2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs. Poor on reappearance in January (almost six lengths behind Take Charge Milady at Oaklawn as the 1/2 favourite), better at the same venue a month later when beating Five G by a length (though was receiving 5 lbs), and back to her best in the G2 Fantasy Stakes at the same venue in late March, besting Simply Joking by three quarters of a length. That was a lifetime best on the clock and her trajectory of progression this year is attractive, but does have to show she can turn around form from last November with the favourite.
Betting observations
Very strong claims of achieving a podium place here, and the 7/1 currently available looks appealing as an each-way play now, as there is plenty of vocal support for this filly and she is likely to start shorter.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
7/1 (widely available) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
La Cara
Street Sense – Cara Caterina (Bernardini)
Trainer: Mark Casse Likely jockey: Dylan Davis
Lifetime form: 24115-121 Top Beyer speed figure: 88
Profile
One of the more experienced fillies in the field. Initially raced twice over 5.5 furlongs in the early summer of last year, but demonstrated that a step up in trip was what she wanted when romping over seven furlongs at Saratoga in August. Then took the G3 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs in September before finding the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies all too much in early November (fifth behind Immersive, beaten 16 lengths). Easy winner of a listed race at Tampa Bay Downs on her reappearance in February, second best in the Davona Dale at Gulfstream in early March (beaten three lengths, finished a nose ahead of Ballerina d'Oro), and finally bagged a G1 prize by winning the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland in early April, making all and are holding off Take Charge Milady by 1.25 lengths. That was her best performance yet – including on the clock – so she is perhaps peaking at the right time, while a further attractive trait is her extremely versatile running style (has won from the front and from well off the pace). That said, these are the deepest waters she has faced this year by some way.
Betting observations
One of many with claims of placing in this race, as well as being one of the few with a versatile running style, but she was well beaten the only time she faced a deep, competitive G1 field so her odds look no more than reasonable.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
10/1 (Bet365, William Hill, 888) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Simply Joking
Practical Joke – Imply (E Dubai)
Trainer: Whit Beckman Likely jockey: Florent Geroux
Lifetime form figures: 112 Top Beyer speed figure: 90
Profile
Very lightly-raced filly who only made her debut in late December, winning a six-furlong maiden at Fair Grounds in a fast time. Returned to that venue in late January for the listed Silverbulletday, again recording an easy win in a fast time over a sloppy track. Then took on Quietside in the G2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn, narrowly going down by less than a length to that rival after a terrific stretch battle. With just three runs on her CV this filly has the right to progress again after just three starts, and she absolutely fits on overall speed figures. However, there is plenty of other early pace in this line-up, and as a daughter of Practical Joke the step up to nine furlongs does not look to be in her favour (the well-fancied Ways and Means faded late in this race last year, her first and only try over the trip).
Betting observations
Has a squeak of leading these all the way despite question marks over her pedigree and other speedsters in the race. This make her a viable upset candidate but with limited place appeal. Upgrade her chances if it rains.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
10/1 (Bet365, William Hill, 888) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Take Charge Milady
Take Charge Indy – Price Too High (Scat Daddy)
Trainer: Kenneth McPeeek Likely jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr
Lifetime form figures: 662-1102 Top Beyer speed figure: 86
Profile
Struggled in her first two races last July but better on her return to action in December, parlaying a second place at Oaklawn into a maiden special weight win at the same track two weeks later. Then caught many an eye by trouncing Quietside in the listed Martha Washington Stakes at the same venue in a good time. Regressed badly on the face of it when only tenth in the G3 Honeybee (beaten more than 30 lengths) but had a very troubled trip in that race, and was much better in the G1 Ashland, closing strongly on the winner La Cara in the last furlong to take a good second. This filly is deep closer so will need luck in a 14-horse field (by some way the biggest she has faced), but poses an obvious late-running threat for last year's winning trainer if the pace is hot.
Betting observations
Might get the pace set-up she needs to be effective, but has the disadvantage of having to make her way through the largest field she has faced, so feels short enough in the betting.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
12/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Five G Vekoma – Triumphant (Quality Road)
Trainer: George Weaver Likely jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
Lifetime form figures: 012-121 Top Beyer speed figure: 90
Profile
Promising start to her career in 2024 after a no-show on debut. Stepped things up significantly in 2025, however, demolishing the field by nine lengths in the listed Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream in late January (fast time), then beaten less than a length by Quietside in the G3 Honeybee Stakes a month later (was giving that rival 5lbs), and comfortably seeing off Anna's Promise in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks last time out, again recording a fast time. Comes into this in raging form and has little to find against the principals on the clock, but wants the lead and will face stiff competition for that position in this field (against Simply Joking in particular).
Betting observations
Impossible to gauge how her front-running style will play out in this 14-horse field, but otherwise it's not clear why she should be twice the price of Quietside, who bested her by just a length in the Honeybee with 5lbs less weight on her back. Not out of this, another possible win-only candidate for an upset.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
14/1 (widely available) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Ballerina d'Oro
Medaglia d’Oro – In The Moonlight (Tapit)
Trainer: Chad Brown Likely jockey: Flavien Prat
Lifetime form figures: 6182-31 Top Beyer speed figure: 90
Profile
Started her career on turf last year, winning at the second attempt at Kentucky Downs before being outclassed in the G2 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland. Three starts on dirt since have shown that turf was the wrong surface: Beaten just a length by Muhimma in the G2 Demoiselle Stakes over this distance at Aqueduct in December, third behind The Queens M G and La Cara in the G2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream over a mile, then held off Early On by a nose in the G3 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct in early April. Has twice shown that nine furlongs holds no fears for her – as befits a daughter of Medaglio d'Oro out of a Tapit mare – but barely held on last time in a slow time (lifetime best Beyer speed figure was recorded last year and looks suspect now) and will clearly need to take her form to another level in this stronger, deeper field.
Betting observations
Too short in the betting given that she has been beaten on the three occasions she has stepped into G2 company, and presumably owes her position in the market to the fact that she is the sole representative of the powerful Chad Brown stable. Her last-time-out Gazelle Stakes win doesn't give her much of a chance here.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
14/1 (widely available) | ⭐ |
Tenma Nyquist – Amagansett (Tapit)
Trainer: Bob Baffert Likely jockey: Juan Hernandez
Lifetime form figures: 1131-11 Top Beyer speed figure: 92
Profile
Winner on debut at Del Mar last August, then claimed the G1 Debutante on just her second start at the same venue a month later (runner-up Vodka With A Twist would later fill the same position in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies). Subsequently suffered her only defeat when well beaten in the G2 Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita in October. Bypassed the Breeders Cup after that dull effort and has since won three on the trot in small fields in California – the G2 Starlet Stakes at Los Alamitos in December, the G3 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita in early February (very fast on the clock), and most recently the Santa Anita Oaks in early April. That last race was run in a glacially slow time (slowest Santa Anita Oaks run in the last 50 years) and while she does have a razor-sharp speed figure on her CV from her previous outing (92 Beyer, highest in this field), repeating that outside of California in a large, competitive field will be a tall order.
Betting observations
Doesn't look the likeliest winner as she prepares to take on the biggest and by far the most competitive field she has ever faced, but 16/1 is eye-catching for a filly who boasts a 5-for-6 lifetime record and holds the fastest Beyer speed figure in the race. What's more, she's the only runner for three-time winner Bob Baffert, who is having his first Kentucky Oaks starter in five years, partly due to a three-year ban imposed by Churchill Downs for pharmaceutical violations. Given this profile her price can surely only go one way, so she's an attractive trading bet for those looking to lay her on the exchanges later. By contrast she doesn't appeal at all as an each-way play.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
16/1 (widely available) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Early On Union Rags – Sally O'Brien (Distorted Humor)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr. Likely jockey: Javier Castellano
Lifetime form figures: 342-122 Top Beyer speed figure: 80
Profile
Didn't set the world alight in her first three races in 2024, finishing third and fourth in maiden races at Saratoga before failing to justify 5/6 favouritism in a maiden claimer at Aqueduct in December. Has taken a big step forward as a three-year-old, however, winning a maiden special weight at Gulfstream in February, finishing a half-length second to Fondly in the listed Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs in mid-March, and failing to beat Ballerina d'Oro by just a nose in the G3 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct in early April. Likeable, improving filly but hasn't posted a serious speed figure in her career to date and these waters are by some way the deepest she has faced.
Betting observations
Has earned her way into this field but without giving any signs that she's capable of taking a podium position when the medals are handed out. No appeal.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
20/1 (widely available) | ⭐ |
Bless The Broken Laoban – The Nightingale (Tapit)
Trainer: William Walden Likely jockey: John Velazquez
Lifetime form figures: 1827-231 Top Beyer speed figure: 83
Profile
Not a serious force in her four starts in 2004 (only win came on debut, well beaten in only try in graded stakes company behind Muhimma and Ballerina d'Oro in the G2 Demoiselle), but has turned into a nice racehorse this year: fast-finishing second behind Simply Joking in the Silverbulletday on a muddy Fair Grounds track in January, third behind Good Cheer in the G2 Rachel Alexandra at the same track in February, and easy winner of the listed Bourbonette Oaks at the all-weather Turfway Park in March. Needs to step forward again but that's not out of the question if they go hard up front, particularly if there's rain in the run-up to the race.
Betting observations
Hardly a likely winner of this but far from a forlorn hope to show up well in a race containing plenty of speed. Upgrade her chances and back each-way the night before if it looks like coming up wet.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
33/1 (widely available) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Fondly Upstart – Lifetime Memory (Istan)
Trainer: Graham Motion Likely jockey: TBA
Lifetime form figures: 11 Top Beyer speed figure: 75
Profile
The least experienced filly in this line-up, having raced just twice. Won easily on debut (by four lengths) in a maiden special weight at Tampa Bay Downs on 14 February and was then pitched straight into the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs a month later, where she reeled in the long-time leader of that race for a gutsy win, just ahead of Early On. That race came back slow on all time ratings so on the speed figure metric she has a mountain to climb, but the form of her most recent win has been franked and with just two races on her CV she has plenty of potential upside as she enters the starting gates for just the third time. Intriguing.
Betting observations
An unlikely winner, but every horse has its fair price level and this unbeaten filly looks mispriced on both her form and (particularly) her profile. On a collateral form line through Early On (who is bizarrely half the price despite being beaten by Graham Motion's filly in the Virginia Oaks) she looks like she should be trading at around the 20/1 mark in this field at most. On four-place terms she's worth an each-way flutter if this price holds.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
40/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Drexel Hill Bolt d’Oro – Ascot Walk (Daaher)
Trainer: Whit Beckman Likely jockey: Ben Curtis
Lifetime form figures: 52215-31 Top Beyer speed figure: 80
Profile
Fair level of form as a two-year-old under previous trainer in Canada, all four races (just one win) coming on s synthetic surface. Not much more promise on her debut for current trainer Whit Beckman on US debut at Fair Grounds in December (5th, beaten six lengths), but better at the same venue in the Silverbulletday (3rd, just under four lengths behind stablemate Simply Joking). Has since narrowly won the listed Busher Stakes at Aqueduct, but that race looks weak in the context of this contest so she appears to have a mountain to climb here.
Betting observations
There's no race on her CV that puts her in the first three here, let alone the winner's circle, and with seven runs already under her belt it looks most unlikely that she can make the necessary quantum leap forward.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
40/1 (William Hill, 888, Ladbrokes, Coral) | ⭐ |
Anna's Promise Promises Fulfilled – Caroline Lois (Paynter)
Trainer: Carlos David Likely jockey: Junior Alvarado
Lifetime form figures: 46225-211 Top Beyer speed figure: 87
Profile
Ran five times in maidens as a two-year-old under trainer Dale Romans without winning. Showed immediate improvement once transferred to the stable of Carlos David this year, winning her maiden in early February followed by an allowance race in early March. Was then thrown into graded stakes company in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, where she finished a creditable second behind Five G as an outsider (fifth choice of six in the betting). Likeable pattern of improvement under current trainer, but needs to step up again to be competitive.
Betting observations
One of the more exposed fillies in this line-up but is at least on a firmly upward trajectory. Not impossible for a good showing, but not a bet.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
40/1 (William Hill, 888) | ⭐⭐ |
Quickick McKinzie – Graeme Six (Graham Hall)
Trainer: Tom Amoss Likely jockey: Edgar Morales
Form: 3123-45 Top Beyer speed figure: 79
Profile
Enjoyed a largely progressive 2-year-old season: thrashed ten lengths by La Cara at Saratoga in August, won maiden at same venue in early September, very good 1.5-length second to 2-year-old champion filly Immersive in the G2 Alcibiades at Keeneland in October (ahead of Quietside), then finished rather further behind Immersive in the BC Juvenile Classic (third, beaten 6 lengths). That résumé would put her in the mix for the places here, but she has not kicked on this season – her only two outings have seen here thrashed by both Quietside (Honeybee Stakes at Fair Grounds, beaten 8 lengths into fifth) and Good Cheer (Fair Ground Oaks, beaten 7 lengths into fourth). Surely can't place in this race unless she takes a huge leap forward, which doesn't look likely given her profile.
Betting observations
Just squeezed into this field thanks to defections and is rightly priced up as the complete outsider. No betting appeal.
Best fixed odds | Antepost price appeal |
66/1 (William Hill, 888) | ⭐ |
Summary: betting angles for different styles
Good Cheer may be the likeliest winner of this race but she doesn't appeal as an antepost win bet at 6/4 with the attendant non-runner risk. For those who didn't follow The AntePoster's advice to back her at 14/1 last December, a bet on her to win by multiple lengths when such offers are put up by British and Irish bookmakers in the 24 hours before the race looks a more rewarding angle to pursue come race day. Of the others, Quietside looks a solid each-way candidate who is most unlikely to be 7/1 by post time, while Simply Joking is a possible upsetter but appeals solely as a win-only bet, best played by those who like her on the exchanges on the day of the race itself. By contrast, Tenma is a shaky win candidate but a very appealing trading play at 16/1 for those who like to adopt a back-and-lay approach, as she will surely start much shorter. The outsiders that catch the eye are the completely unexposed Fondly trained by Graham Motion at 40/1 and William Walden's Bless The Broken at 33/1. Anyone wanting to back one of these two would be better off waiting for four-place terms on the eve of the race, as long as they haven't shortened considerably by that point.
Weather watch
Finally, a word on the weather. Kentucky can see a lot of rain early May and many an Oaks/Derby weekend has featured a muddy or sloppy track. The fillies whose chances should be upgraded in such a scenario based on their impressive performances on it to date are Good Cheer, Quietside, Simply Joking, and Bless The Broken. As a front runner – and therefore likely to be spared sloppy kickback – Simply Joking would be particularly interesting in such conditions. By contrast, La Cara would be one to downgrade in this scenario.
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