King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes: star raider offers terrific value at 5/1

The Oaks is just hours away, The Derby is tomorrow. Strange sort of time to be writing about a big race in seven weeks' time.

But value windows wait for no man...or woman, or horse, or race.

And the most interesting antepost news in the last 24 hours is that an international star – one of the world's very best racehorses by any metric – has been confirmed by connections as a definite traveller to the UK next month for Ascot's big midsummer showpiece over 12 furlongs. So it's time to act, as the price axe this news deserves has yet to be properly wielded by boomkakers.

The horse in questions is Masquerade Ball, beaten a couple of inches in the Japan Cup by Calandagan at the end of last year. The race he is coming over for is the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes next month, run over the same distance as the Japan Cup (12 furlongs). And his price is 5/1 (actually 6/1, but with a bookmaker so spineless there's no chance of that price lasting until the time you read this). That price is not right, and should be seized before it goes.

Masquerade Ball might be beaten again by Calandagan, who races on Saturday in the Coronation Cup. That gelding is himself top class, and our pick in this race last year. But there was juice in our picking him last year at 10/3 (SP 11/10), and not much juice now with a Duel on the Downs awaiting him in a few hours' time.

We feel strongly that Masquerade Ball shouldn't be 5/1 to Calandagan's 2/1. Perhaps the discrepancy is explained by the fact that the former was beaten last time out in Hong Kong by the imperious Romantic Warrior over ten furlongs. But being positioned plum last with just over a furlong to go and with the best part of five lengths to make up on that 2000-metre champion in his back yard was not the smartest of plans for a horse who stays every inch of a mile and a half. Indeed, Masquerade Ball did rather that day at Sha Tin better than his jockey Christophe Lemaire, gobbling up the ground late to end up just a length down to the Warrior at the line.

Ascot over 12 furlongs is a very different beast to Sha Tin over 10 furlongs, and Masquerade Ball has a huge chance to be the first Japanese horse to get his hame on the King George trophy. Perhaps the bookmakers are not taking Japan's finest seriously because the Land of the Rising Sun do not have a tradition of bring their best horses over for Ascot's midsummer showpiece. But to be clear, Heart's Cry in 2001 is the only proper top-notcher they have ever come up with. He was another very good horse and started at 3/1. He finished just a length behind Hurricane Run, one of Europe's finest middle-distance horses of this century. Fast forward a quarter of a century, and Masquerade Ball already has form that is just as good as Heart's Cry, with more upside.

As the younger horse in the rematch, we give Masquerade Ball a real shout of turning the tables on Calandagan, even if connections must now compete on soil more familiar to that rival. We would strongly fancy Lemaire's mount to take down any other older European horse in training who might turn up – bar Daryz, who certainly won't take on his fellow Aga-Khan-silked stablemate.

Of course, the King George is an all-age contest so it's conceivable that a star three-year old could throw their hat in the ring if Saturday's Derby produces a good 'un. We'll see if a Benvenuto, an Item or a Pierre can be that horse. But the trend has been firmly against three-year-olds in the King George for a couple of decades now (most Derby winners bypass the race), and an emphatica trend reversal would be required this year with such a powerful pair of older horsese pencilled in for the race. Prix du Jockey Club winner Constitution River would be a most unlikely presence.

In summary, from everything we know from his career so far the superbly consistent Masquerade Ball must go very, very close in the King George. The equivalent even-money price on him to place is also irresistable, as only an injury or a serious off-day can prevent him taking a top-three place. On which note, it's worth noting that most of the last ten runnings have attracted less than eight runners.

Antepost recommendation for the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Ascot, 25 July

Back Masquerade Ball each-way at 5/1 with William Hill, Paddy Power or Skybet. Unibet have no stomach for antepost action, so the 6/1 available with them will be gone within seconds of publication of this article.