On geopolitical developments and antepost positions

Dear followers

Pretty sobering stuff what's going on in the Middle East. Dark times for the region, dark times for mankind.

The conflict that started at the end of last week may also have significant repercussions for the antepost punter, however mundane and petty those may seem in the wider scheme of things.

Of particular relevance in this context is our recent Dubai World Cup 25/1 pick, Magnitude, who won easily at the weekend as expected, thereby setting him up for tilt at the big race at Meydan on 28 March. He's now a best-priced 10/1. We'd expect him to start clear second favourite if he makes the race and if the race takes place.

But there's the rub.

As you are doubtless aware, Dubai is one of many urban centres in the Middle East region that has been targeted with revenge bombing attacks. If Dubai World Cup night is cancelled – which would have seemed a preposterously unlikely scenario only last week but now looks a very real possibility – then the result is neutral for antepost positions on the corresponding races. Bets would be refunded.

But another possibility is that some deal is finally done to end the conflict, or that Iran's capability to lash out at major urban hubs across the UAE is crushed. We are not qualified to put forward an opinion on the likelihood of either of these outcomes, but such a restoration of normality in Dubai in these (or similar) scenarios probably would lead to the DWC races taking place as planned. In which case we assume antepost positions would stand.

In this latter scenario, there is a very real possibility that many intended runners not already based in the Middle East (note: many likely contenders are already there, including DWC favourite Forever Young) might choose not to take part. And in this context there are obvious fears for Magnitude's participation in the Dubai World Cup in the light of the weekend's events. As far as we are aware, the owners have no Middle Eastern connection, and it would hardly come as a shock if trainer Steve Asmussen and the US ownership group were to decide not to risk a very valuable horse by taking him halfway across the world to compete in a recent war zone. They might be up for it, but it would hardly be surprising if they weren't.

If Magnitude doesn't make the journey over and the race goes ahead without him, any bet would in all likelihood be settled as a loser – just like it would for any other race in which the horse on which you wagered doesn't make the gate. So we would like to point out to followers that Bet365 (one of the three boomakers offering the original 25/1 as per our article) and sister bookmakers Paddy Power and Skybet (who were offering 20/1 after Magnitude had demolished the Razorback field on his seasonal debut on Saturday evening) currently allow bets on this horse to be cashed out.

Anyhow, that's all we wanted to say. It's not for us to advise you on whether you should cash out or not. We don't know how this situation is going to play out. But we do want to alert you to your options and make you aware of the situation. And in a world as uncertain as this one, you may reasonably decide that bet cancellation is the best course of action, even though cashing out in most scenarios is typically a course of action that favours bookmaker over punter.

In the meantime, I apologise for suggesting on X that 20/1 was still value for Magnitude on Saturday evening after his victory at Oaklawn Park. This was ill-considered in the light of unfolding events and reveals that the antepost side of my brain and the other side that engages with current affairs don't converse with one another very often, as they rarely have anything in common. They do in this instance, however, so that was misguidance on my part. Hence this article to alert you to the possibility of reversing a bet which you might not otherwise have made.

Dark times, strange times.

Yours

Daniel Morgan The AntePoster