Prix de l'Opera - Antepost Guide

Date of race: 6 October 2024                   Date of analysis: 2 October 2024

This document is an antepost analysis of the horses set to contest the Prix de l’Opera at ParisLongchamp on Sunday 6 October. Please bear in mind the following points before reading this document.

• This market remains an antepost event, so non-runner risk is still important. Particular attention should therefore be paid to the “Chance of Running” below each horse, whereby one star implies that the horse has very little chance of turning up, five means running is a nigh certainty (bar injury). In particular, many of these horses are also entered in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes to be run at Newmarket the day before.

• The “Price Appeal” section works on the same principle of 1-5 stars, but the key point to understand here is that the number of stars given is not an absolute assessment of the horse’s chance of winning but a relative assessment of their appeal as an antepost wager in view of the price at time of writing.

This guide has embedded obsolescence by its nature.  Over the next two days of the antepost market, the participation probabilities and prices of the horses listed will change, and this will inevitably affect their appeal as a bet. Any wagering should therefore always take into account the latest information available.

Enjoy the read. If you would like a pdf download of this document, please use the following link:

Prix de l'Opera Final.pdf

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The AntePoster 2 October 2024

FALLEN ANGEL (Tr. K R Burke)  |  Last 5 runs: 11-812

Only blip in superb seven-run career came when fading to eighth in 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May. Corrected that emphatically when running out easy winner of Irish 1000 Guineas (second G1 win at the Curragh), before a solid second to top miler Porta Fortuna in the Matron Stakes. Step up in trip an unknown (mixed messages from pedigree), and while it could work for her she’s quite short for this venture into the unknown.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
9/2	★★★★★	★★

YLANG YLANG (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-5674

Victory in Fillies Mile last October propelled this filly to the top of many winter antepost lists, but this season has been problematic. Pulled muscles in the Oaks, then two comeback races back at a mile, the last being a promising fourth to Porta Fortuna in the G1 Matron. Step up to this trip looks logical, and although she is entered in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket, market movements send a clear signal that she is coming here. Big chance if she does.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
5/1	★★★★	★★★★

SPARKLING PLENTY (Tr. J P Dubois)  |  Last 5 runs: 61136

This Kingman filly has stamped herself as one of the best of her generation. Good winner of the French Oaks and has twice caught the eye since as fast-finishing runner-up in both the 10-furlong Nassau at Goodwood and the 12-furlong Prix Vermeille where she was set an impossible task. Huge player back in trip if jockey abandons exaggerated waiting tactics and will surely start at shorter odds than this.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
8/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

FRIENDLY SOUL (Tr. J & T Gosden)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-1711

Wins in first two starts saw her surge up the betting for the Epsom Oaks until the wheels came off in key Musidora trial at York. Back on track in the summer, winning a G3 at Ascot and a G2 at Deauville. However, the placed fillies there were thrashed in the Vermeille, she’ll have competition for the lead, and is not a certain runner (Sun Chariot entry).

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
8/1	★★★	★★

CONTENT (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 88321

Big improver over the course of this season when stepped up in trip, finishing an excellent second in the Irish Oaks before breaking her G1 duck last time out (Yorkshire Oaks) despite pulling hard for much of the race. A surprise entry in this, as newsflow had suggested she might go straight to Del Mar for the Breeders Cup and the drop in trip doesn’t look an obvious positive, but it may simply be that she has become a top-notch filly over any middle-distance trip now. Win threat, but might not run with rain.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
9/1	★★★★	★★★★

SEE THE FIRE (Tr. A Balding)  |  Last 5 runs: 05421

Highly progressive as a juvenile and again this year, most recently running Opera Singer to a neck in the G1 Nassau at Goodwood, then running out a comfortable winner of the G3 Strensall Stakes at York. Would have a big chance if she runs, but like so many in this lineup this filly has an alternative engagement in the Sun Chariot the day before, so lots of antepost risk.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
10/1	★★★	★★

HANALIA (Tr. J P Murtagh)  |  Last 5 runs:  11621

Like Wingspan, this filly only made her debut in the spring but has improved with each race, most recently winning the G2 Blandford at The Curragh. This is yet another step up and she has had seven runs already this season, so not clear if she can step forward again, which is needed.  Not completely dismissed, however.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
16/1	★★★★★	★★★

WINGSPAN (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs:  16132

Eye-catching pedigree (Galileo-Dubawi cross), only made her debut in April. G3 Salsabil against Oaks winner Ezeliya was too much on second start, but progressive since, improving with every race and finishing a close second to Hanalia in G2 Blandford Stakes at The Curragh. Could be blossoming into something special, but stable has three potential runners here and this filly has an entry in the Sun Chariot the day before.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★	★★

SURVIE (Tr. N Clement  |  Last 5 runs: 33217

Promising first two runs this season were followed by excellent second in the Prix de Diane and a G2 win in the Prix du Malleret at Longchamp when stepped up to 12 furlongs. Disappointing on the face of it when well beaten in the Vermeille, but that came after a two-month break and she has a right to come on for that. Clear chance if replicating Diane form, but still in the Arc itself.  One of the most interesting outsiders if she runs.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★	★★★★

EXCELLENT TRUTH (Tr. D Sanchez)  |  Last 5 runs: 16-412

Most progressive French filly this year, parlaying a listed victory at Deauville into an excellent second behind top mare Mqse de Sevigne in the G2 Prix Rothschild at Deauville. Beaten 3 lengths into sixth in last year’s edition of this race, but a lot went wrong that day in a race her trainer describes as a “nightmare”. Well worth another try, live outsider.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

RUNNING LION (Tr. J&T Gosden)  |  Last 5 runs:  8-2817

All-or-nothing type but solid Group 2 performer on a going day, as evidenced by a victory in the Duke of Cambridge stakes at Ascot in June.  That came after a poor run, so the fact that she was last, beaten 40 lengths, on last racecourse appearance  (G1 Falmouth Stakes) might not prevent her from running a big race here. On the other hand, this is the deepest field she has ever faced and she too has a Sun Chariot entry, so no antepost appeal.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★	★

START OF THE DAY (Tr. H F Devin)  |  Last 5 runs: 1112

Very lightly-raced Night of Thunder filly whose race record since debut in June reads 1112, the runner-up position coming just behind top prospect Ombudsman over course and distance three weeks ago. Every race better than the last, could still have more upside, and looks like market is underestimating her chances.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

DARNATION (Tr. K R Burke)  |  Last 5 runs:  5-0125

Soft-ground filly has largely avoided the big races this season after comeback flop in 1000 Guineas on seasonal reappearance. By contrast, on genuinely soft ground she has been mightily impressive, with her unbeaten record including two G2s and a G3, all won easily.  No newsflow, probably needs every bit of the rain forecast for Sunday, and she’s also in the Sun Chariot.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★	★

AMERICAN SONJA (Tr. J P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 18225

Has stepped up on her three-year-old form this year, her most impressive run being a close second to Mqse de Sevigne in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville in August. Failed to build on that in a Group 2 at the Irish Champions Festival two weeks ago, but did clip heels shortly after the start there. A bit to find, but she has dropped many a hint that she possesses the class to compete at this level. One of the more interesting outsiders.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★★★	★★★

ROYAL DRESS (Tr. J Tate)  |  Last 5 runs:  13813

Night of Thunder filly who has improved markedly in her four-year-old season, running out an impressive winner of a G3 on her first try at nine furlongs. Poor effort last time out, however, and she has never faced this class level before, but not impossible the step up to ten furlongs could unlock further improvement. It will have to.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★★★	★

LOPE DE LILAS (Tr. W P Mullins)  |  Last 5 runs: 510

Filly with just three runs under her belt. Caught many an eye when breaking her maiden on her second start, to the point where she took a fair amount of money when thrown straight into the G1 Irish Oaks on just her next outing. Flopped there, however, and it remains to be seen whether top jumps trainer Willie Mullins genuinely believes she has the class for this, or whether owners Wathnan Racing (who own the Arc favourite) are simply looking for other runners on the Arc card on their big day out.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★★★★	★

ELUSIVE PRINCESS (Tr. J P Dubois)  |  Last 5 runs: 49334

Not far off best of the three-year-old fillies last year, capping an excellent season with a close-up fourth in the Breeders Cup Mile. Hasn’t reached the same level this season, for all that she hasn't disgraced herself in strong company. Needs to reproduce her very best form to be competitive, let alone pose a win threat, and lacks appeal even at a big price.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
40/1	★★★★	★

ALMARA (Tr. C&Y Lerner)  |  Last 5 runs:  22231

Has raced nine times since making her debut last November, mostly improving with each run until most recently peaking with a G3 win at Deauville. That level of form is still well below what would be required to be competitive in this race, however, and with so many runs in her legs it seems unlikely she will be able to make another quantum leap forward.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★★	★