Prix de la Foret - Antepost Guide

Date of race: 6 October 2024                   Date of analysis: 2 October 2024

This document is an antepost analysis of the horses set to contest the Prix de la Foret at ParisLongchamp on Sunday 6 October. Please bear in mind the following points before reading this document.

• This market remains an antepost event, so non-runner risk is still important. Particular attention should therefore be paid to the “Chance of Running” below each horse, whereby one star implies that the horse has very little chance of turning up, five means running is a nigh certainty (bar injury). In particular, many horses in this races (as indicated) are also entered in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket next week.

  
  

• The “Price Appeal” section works on the same principle of 1-5 stars, but the key point to understand here is that the number of stars assigned is not an absolute assessment of the horse’s chance of winning but a relative assessment of their appeal as an antepost wager in view of the price at time of writing.

  
  

This guide has embedded obsolescence by its nature.  Over the next two days of the antepost market, the participation probabilities and prices of the horses listed will change, and this will inevitably affect their appeal as a bet. Any wagering should therefore always take into account the latest information available.

Enjoy the read. If you would like a pdf download of this document, please use the following link:

PrixForetUpdated.pdf

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The AntePoster 2 October 2024

KINROSS (Tr. R Beckett)  |  Last 5 runs: 2-2831

Classy veteran of the 7-furlong division, winning this race in 2022 and finishing a close second last year. Form this year looked to be dipping before emphatic return to the winner’s circle on less-than-ideal ground in the G2 Park Stakes at Doncaster. Obvious favourite after that performance, which was up there with his best on the ratings, but that’s factored into the price now.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
3/1	★★★★★	★★

RAMATUELLE  (Tr. C Head)  |  Last 5 runs: 12-233

Arguably the best horse in the race when third in 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, having shot clear prematurely, and again third in Coronation Stakes at Ascot. Rested since. Given the pace she has shown this drop in trip should suit, and with solid form on all types of ground the weather shouldn’t matter one way or the other. Looks a threat in receipt of 5lbs from Kinross if ready to fire (Breeders Cup Mile also on agenda).

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
4/1	★★★★★	★★★★

TRIBALIST  (Tr. A Fabre)  |  Last 5 runs: 0-1191

Surprise winner of the G1 Prix du Moulin two weeks ago, taking recent record on genuinely soft ground to an extraordinary 1211131111. This race won’t be easy to dominate from the front, not least given the other forward-running types, but he’s likely to give it a good go. The state of the ground on the day is a huge factor in his chances, so prospective bettors might want to hold fire (recommended at 8-1 last week, the current 6-1 is neutral given ground uncertainty).

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
6/1	★★★★★	★★★

BIG ROCK (Tr. M. Guarnieri)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-6053

Ended last season with a stunning win in the G1 QEII Stakes on Ascot Champions Day, which made him one of the world’s top racehorses on rankings. Then came the shock move (together with a number of stablemates) away from Christopher Head. His campaign under new trainer Guarnieri has been little short of disastrous, but he ran his best race yet this year a few weeks ago on ground that would not have suited.  Rain due Sunday, dangerous.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
10/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

TIBER FLOW (Tr. W Haggas)  |  Last 5 runs: 5F161

William Haggas has won three of the last six runnings, all with One Master. This year he lines up Tiber Flow, a five-year old who most recently won the G2 Hungerford at Newbury by a nose from Witch Hunter. Unchanged official rating of 110 is not enough to win this, and best runs have come on good ground, so significant rain before Sunday would cast doubt on him finding the necessary improvement, and he is also entered in G2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket next week.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
12/1	★★★	★★

POET MASTER (Tr. K Burke)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-1515

Lightly-raced four-year-old, showed top-class potential when winning G2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh in July. Failed to follow up when finishing down the field in Park Hill stakes at Doncaster. Winner of only run on good-to-soft (has not faced softer), but with his pedigree rain shouldn’t be too great a concern. Inconsistent, however, and also entered in Challenge Stakes next week.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
12/1	★★★	★

BREEGE  (Tr. J&S Quinn)  |  Last 5 runs: 12201

Likeable filly who has often performed impressively at pattern level against her own gender, but without looking to have any pretensions of competing in a race like this.  However, was shock winner of G2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster last time out in a six-horse race at 33-1. Claims if she can build on that, but with the favourite blowing out completely (had excuse after stalls incident) and very different ground here that form looks suspect.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
14/1	★★★★★	★★

EXXTRA (Tr. C&Y Lerner)  |  Last 5 runs: 21224

Finished a decent second to Lazzat (albeit beaten three lengths) in G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest last month. Has occasionally produced other glimpses of G1 form over this trip, including at Longchamp, but disappointed as unplaced favourite here last time out. On balance looks just shy of the class level required, but rain no problem and decent course form.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★★	★★★

SHOULDVEBEENARING (Tr. R Hannon)  |  Last 5 runs: 01303

Placed in this race last year as a three-year-old. Has an inconsistent profile and a poor win ratio, but every so often throws in a top-level performance, so difficult to dismiss.  As another interesting angle, he appears to be a bit of a Francophile, with his best form figures coming at Deauville and Longchamp. Interesting contender, and overpriced on the basis of last year’s run, but is entered in Challenge Stakes next week.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★	★★★

KELINA (Tr. C Laffon-Parias)  |  Last 5 runs: 19-366

Last year’s surprise winner of this race at 28/1, a price that reflected her less than stellar prior record. Also hasn’t reached that level of form since, but possibly seven furlongs (figures: 113) rather than a mile is what she wants, along with decent ground.  Whether she gets the latter on Sunday is a question mark, however, for all that she has drifted to a big price for a defending champion.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★★	★★★

BEAUVATIER (Tr. Y Barberot)  |  Last 5 runs: 20333

One of the most exciting juveniles of last year, with sole defeat coming over C&D to Rosallion in the G1 Jean-Luc Lagadere. Hasn’t quite captured the same top level of form as a three-year-old, however, running to exactly the same level in three third-placed finishes in consecutive G1 races this summer. Difficult to see where the improvement can come from to win this, but perhaps a return to the scene of his best juvenile form will help.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
20/1	★★★★★	★★

MATILDA PICOTTE (Tr. K P Cotter)  |  Last 5 runs: 58720

This filly’s impressive 7-furlong form at the end of last season, which culminated in G3 and G2 wins at Doncaster and Newmarket, would give her a chance, but she has failed to reach those heights this season in a campaign that has seen her tried over a variety of different distances. Probably back over the right trip now, but makes little appeal given her front-running style and long sequence of indifferent performances.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★★	★

RIVER TIBER (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 33-389

Something of a forgotten horse after a truncated season in which an impressive first run in the Irish 2,000 Guineas (good third to Rosallion) was followed by two flops, firstly when dropped to 7 furlongs in the G3 Jersey at Ascot (13/8 favourite, finished 8th of 19), and then when dropped further in trip in the July Cup (3rd favourite, 9th of 11). Rested since, and an obvious candidate to bounce back, though comes with clear risks attached.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
25/1	★★★★	★★★★

FLORA OF BERMUDA (Tr. A Balding)  |  Last 5 runs: 92145

Decent juvenile without being top class, this filly has improved hand over fist this season, running with credit in two G1 races on the last two starts: fourth to the outstanding sprinter-miler Lazzat at Deauville in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, then caught the eye in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, finishing fifth of 16 after suffering trouble in running. Trip worth a try, overpriced.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★★★★	★★★★

OCEAN JEWEL (Tr. W McCreery)  |  Last 5 runs: 58-104

Decent three-year-old but a better filly at four, with one flop at Ascot on good to firm ground splitting two highly credible runs: the first being her seasonal debut (won G2 Lanwades Stakes at the Curragh), the last being a fourth-place finish behind the top-class Mqse de Sevigne in the Prix Rothschild. While neither of those runs make her an obvious candidate for honours here, she has won her only start over this trip and could outrun her odds, but also entered in Challenge Stakes.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
40/1	★★★	★★

GREGORINA (Tr. J P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 57-104

Decent mare who won a group race for the first time in her career on her seasonal debut this year (G3 Athasi Stakes). That was a weak race against her own sex, however, and given two weak performances since she is impossible to fancy at this level. Also entered in Challenge Stakes.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★	★

RIBALTAGAIA (Tr. R Fahey)  |  Last 5 runs: 13458

Three-year-old filly who hasn’t disgraced herself in a number of runs this season, the best of those being a third place behind top-notcher Sparkling Plenty in the Prix de Sandringham at Chantilly in June, and finishing one place behind Ocean Jewel (see above) in the Prix Rothschild. Below that level last time out, however, and with far more needed here she is surely making up the numbers.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★★	★

KING GOLD (Tr. N Caullery)  |  Last 5 runs: 78196

Fifth in this last year after a stellar campaign that included a win in the G1 Maurice de Gheest (albeit one of the weaker editions of that race’s history). Hasn’t fared well in two races since scoring a narrow victory on his seasonal debut, and at the age of seven doesn’t really appeal as the type to take a major step forward.  That said, it’s rare to find a Group 1 winner priced up at 66-1 the very next season, so there’s nothing wrong with his price.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★★★	★★★

ZEROSTRESS (Tr. S Smrczek)  |  Last 5 runs: 81029

Eight-year-old, German-trained gelding who has never run above Group 2 level.  No claims of even hitting the frame in this race. Those clutching at straws will point to his victory in his sole run a Longchamp, but this was in a handicap. No appeal at all.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
100/1	★★★★	★

Published 23:18 02/10/2024