Prix Niel: Take the "other" Fabre in Sunday's Arc trial for the colts

After the withdrawal of three colts on Thursday, the Prix Niel features a field of eight (note: still antepost with the attendant risk). These comprise four entrants from host nation France (Leffard, Cualificar, Parachutiste, Nitoi), three from Ireland (Swagman and Aftermath for O'Brien snr, Tennessee Stud for O'Brien jr), and one solitary British entry (Bay City Roller). It should be noted that multiple alternative engagements (all relating to Irish Champions weekend) are held by Tennessee Stud (11/2, three possible alternatives) and Aftermath (20/1, ditto). Bay City Roller (14/1, George Scott) also has an Irish Champion Stakes entry but seems a likely runner here as per an interview with jockey Callum Shepherd today, while Swagman (8/1) – who has no other entries – has not run for more than 120 days.

Of the French quartet, (rightful) favourite Leffard (2/1, Rouget) also hasn't run since his Group 1 win in early July and may quite possibly not be fully wound up for this with the first Sunday in October in mind. Second-favourite Cualificar (11/4, Godolphin/Fabre), has a piece of very strong form with his Jockey Club runner-up placing, but was very dull after a break last time out, while Parachutiste (12/1) won a weak listed race at Deauville's "B" track last time out at 7/10, which is hardly formidable form, for all that he deserves attention as the sole representative of the powerful Graffard stable.

Bearing in mind the above, The AntePoster thinks the "other" Fabre and (co-)outsider of the field, Nitoi, is an appealing bet at 20/1.

The key rationale for backing the selection is what he achieved in May in the G3 Prix Suresnes. Nitoi won that contest from a field that in hindsight looks exceptionally strong for the level: second was Leffard (winner of the G1 Grand Prix de Paris in July and favourite for this race), third was High Ground (previously fourth in the G1 Derby at Epsom), and fourth was Azimpour (eyecatcher with his fast-finishing 5th in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club after a poor start). With such impressive Group 1 performances coming from Nitoi's trio of Suresnes victims at different venues, there can be little doubt in retrospect that this is smart form.

Nitoi is the price he is because of his poor performance in the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) back in May, in which he finished a lacklustre 13th of 18. We don't know why he was dull that day, when he clearly underperformed relative to his Suresnes victory. That said, it should be pointed out that the Wertmeimer brothers' colt had been assigned the "coffin slot"draw that day (18 of 18, over a course where a wide draw in a large field is very bad news).

After a long break, Nitoi returned to the racetrack with a second-place finish to a rejuvenated Damysus at Deauville a few week ago. He is likely to have needed that run, and in any case Timeform have that performance as a significantly improved one on his Jockey Club effort.

With a Timeform rating of 113, Nitoi is already capable performing at a level that is comparable or superior to that of all his rivals here. Trained by a legend and retaining an entry in the Arc in a month's time, we get a strong sense that there is more untapped potential in this colt. If Nitoi can step forward again, he stands a good chance of shocking this field – or at least grabbing a podium place.

Aside from 48 hours of further antepost risk, this bet obviously comes with the risk that Nitoi will not take the required step forward from his last two runs to deliver on Sunday. But at 20/1 that risk looks one to embrace. It's worthy of note that Ladbrokes and Coral are well out of line with their peers here: Flutter pair Paddy Power and Skybet go 12/1, Unibet 10/1, and William Hill are as low as 8/1, which is around where The AntePoster would peg this unexposed colt.

The each-way angle appeals in a field that is already the efficient eight runners, while any further defections would only increase the maths in the wagerer's favour.

Recommendation: Back Nitoi each-way at 20/1 with Ladbrokes or Coral to win the Prix Niel at Longchamp on Sunday 7 October.