Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes: Tomahawks out for 14/1 improver

Joliestar looms very large in the six-furlong Group 1 sprint on the final day of the Royal Meeting. She's won numerous times at the highest level in her native Australia, the world's leading turf sprint nation (even if the King of the division is currently based in Hong Kong). She's the most likely winner, but at 2/1 she and the Japanese raiders Satono Reve and Lugal make the market and push the British and Irish sprinters out to lofty double-figure prices.

Most of these local sprinters should be a big price. They are unlikely to be good enough in the face of this stiff international competition, as indeed we saw last year when Lazzat and Satono Reve fought out the finish of what was essentially a different race to that contested by the rest of the field. Stalwarts of the British sprinting scene such as Kind of Blue and Flora of Bermuda are likeable types, but we know where we are with them and they appeal little in the context of this race.

Lake Forest is quite interesting dropping back to six furlongs, as he has more than a touch of class (having beaten Lazzat and many Australians – including Joliestar, nota bene – in the hyper-valuable Golden Eagle 18 months ago). He looked a powerhouse on his return to action following a gelding operation a month ago, romping home over seven furlongs from an overmatched field at Haydock. But the niggling suspicion is that seven furlongs is exactly what he wants rather than less (even Ascot's stiff six furlongs is still six). As he hasn’t run over the latter trip for almost two years we will reluctantly pass, not least as his price has contracted plenty in the last fortnight.

The one we want to back now before he gets cut any further is Donnacha O'Brien's Comanche Brave at 14/1. Those of you who watch our youtube videos will recall that we ventured away from Group 1 territory last week in our Irish Guineas Weekend Preview to flag up his appeal at 6/1 in the G2 Greenlands Stakes at the Curragh, run barely half an hour before the Irish 2000 Guineas. Backed almost literally off the boards in the 24 hours before the race (he started 7/4 favourite), he had an inferior field cooked after five furlongs, and duly stormed home to claim the spoils by open lengths.

As argued on that youtube video (see here, minutes 09:20 to 10:52), to be beaten six lengths last month by the world's indisputed champion sprinter, Ka Ying Rising, still marks Comanche Brave out as a very high-class runner in the context of a British G1 sprint. A literal reading of the form suggest he has 1.75 lengths to make up with Satono Reve (who was second that day), but trainer Donnacha O'Brien has made it clear that Sha Tin's bends were all a bit much for this son of Wootton Bassett, with a "straight six" a much more preferable sprint test.

On the basis of last weekend's Curragh performance, it's difficult to argue with that view. What's more, this still unexposed 4yo sprinter comes with upside that that likes of the ageing Satono Reve and Lugal simply cannot harbour any more. In our view, the bookmakers that have him quoted at 8/1 are right, and the four that have him priced up at 14/1 are wrong. The icing on the cake is the whopping Timeform speed figure ("timefigure") assigned to his performance in the last 36 hours, see here for more on that from the excellent Graeme North on the Sporting Life website.

The each-way angle is contentious given the current three-place terms and the likelihood of a large field, but at 14/1 the chances of him making the podium are estimated at just under 3/1, and we want some of Comanche Brave at that price now.

Recommendation for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, Royal Ascot, 24 May

Back Comanche Brave each-way at 14/1 with William Hill, 888, BetMGM or VirginBet. Take no lower: better to wait until the 48-hour market and four-place terms.