Belmont Stakes at Saratoga: All Hail The Chief

Having recommended Comanche Brave for a race at Royal Ascot in the last 48 hours, we are very disappointed to not be able to follow up with a second Native American pick.

We thought we had done so: but alas, Chief Wallabee (9/2) is named after a brand of shoe. Sorry about that.

Anyhow. In the last 24 hours, two key pace players have withdrawn from the Belmont Stakes (named after the track that traditionally stages the race but currently run at Saratoga over ten rather than twelve furlongs). This means the dynamics for this market – and specifically the front of the market – have changed considerably.

Renegade is your short-priced favourite and should be. He's quality. And the most likely winner in our and the market's view. But he will come late, as will Golden Tempo (Kentucky Derby winner) who we want no part of in this set-up.

Unlike that pair, Chief Wallabee raced closer to the pace of a Derby that favoured the closers. And for good measure, he got a proper battering in the stretch when starting his final run. He has more tactical speed than the other key contenders and looks a massive player in this race for the excellent conditioner Bill Mott, who took down this race last year with Sovereignty.

There's not much more to say. As we see it, Chief Wallabee is an extraordinarily gifted racehorse who hasn't yet had the opportunity to show his very best, and the fact that he has been beaten in adverse circumstances on his last two runs gives backers an extremely heathy price.

We see him as a live win threat against Renegade, and would be very surprised if he didn't at least place. As this will be a very small field the each-way angle with three places appeals hugely. But note that if he is second or third you will get only 90% of your money back. So if you prefer a win play only, fair enough.

Antepost recommendation for the Belmont Stakes, Saratoga, 6 June

Back Chief Wallabee each-way at 9/2 with William Hill. Hold off if they cut that price and just take win-only at 4s elsewhere (Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet).