Queen Elizabeth II Stakes - Antepost Guide

Date of race: 19 October 2024                   Date of analysis: 14 October 2024

This document is an antepost analysis (following release of 5-day declarations) of the horses set to contest the Group 1 QEII Stakes at Ascot on Saturday 19 October. Please bear in mind the following points before reading this document.

• This market remains an antepost event, so non-runner risk is still important. Particular attention should therefore be paid to the “Chance of Running” below each horse, whereby one star implies that the horse has very little chance of turning up, five means running is a nigh certainty (bar injury).

• The “Price Appeal” section works on the same principle of 1-5 stars, but the key point to understand here is that the number of stars given is not an absolute assessment of the horse’s chance of winning but a relative assessment of their appeal as an antepost wager in view of the price at time of writing.

  
  

This guide has embedded obsolescence by its nature.  Over the next 72 hours (i.e. until the 48-hour market kicks in and the antepost market ends), the participation probabilities and prices of the horses listed will change, and this will inevitably affect their appeal as a bet. Any wagering should therefore always take into account the latest information available.

Enjoy the read. If you would like a pdf download of this document, please use the following link:

QEII final.pdf

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The AntePoster 14 October 2024

CHARYN (Tr. R Varian)  |  Last 5 runs: 12112

Standout older European miler who has often been overpriced, perhaps because he lacked the two and three-year-old season glitz of some of his rivals earlier this season. Would arguably be unbeaten in all six starts this year were it not for two dangerous front runners that slipped their respective fields (Queen Anne, Prix du Moulin). Comes here with the easily best form in the race, handles any ground, and is a course and distance G1 winner. Very tough to beat if on song again and by far the likeliest winner, but doesn’t appeal antepost at such a short price.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
11/8	★★★★★	★★

TAMFANA (Tr. D Menuisier)  |  Last 5 runs: 43411

Broke G1 duck in Sun Chariot at Newmarket, holding off the slow-starting Inspiral. Has run well on all types of ground other than G/F, which she is unlikely to encounter here, and has form over much further than this, a key asset on the potentially slow, stiff Ascot straight mile. The question mark is whether two weeks is a sufficient gap between races, she but did back up successfully after 16 days as a juvenile, and Menuisier has told The AntePoster that she is 99% certain for this race.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
6/1	★★★★★	★★★★

PRAGUE (Tr. D Cunha)  |  Last 5 runs: 14521

Unusual profile, having only started his career this year at the age of four. With his relatively unknown connections and cheap price tag he has attracted plenty of attention with his relentless progress, which recently culminated in him running out an easy winner of G2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket (ahead of Poker Face and Task Force).  Soft ground there was probably an important factor and Ascot should provide enough give for him to be effective, but yet to face a proper Group 1 horse so these are very deep waters.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
8/1	★★★★★	★★

FACTEUR CHEVAL (Tr. J Reynier)  |  Last 5 runs: 32-163

Classy winner of the Dubai Turf who was bizarrely put away for the Breeders Cup Classic following a reasonable third placing in the Sussex Stakes on ground that was probably faster than ideal. However, trainer Reynier has put that audacious plan on hold, with the target now being to improve on last year’s second in this race (well behind the freakish Big Rock on heavy ground but ahead of classy Tahiyra, remainder of field well beaten). Soft ground is what he wants; big each-way chance.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
9/1	★★★★★	★★★★

METROPOLITAN (Tr. M Baratti)  |  Last 5 runs: 1-5132

Surprise winner of the French 2000 Guineas at 24/1 but proved that was no fluke with highly respectable podium finishes in the St James’s Palace Stakes (behind Rosallion) and the Prix Jacques le Marois (behind Charyn). What’s more, both of those races were on fast ground, and he will undoubtedly be suited by the likely softer ground at Ascot. Deliberately missed the Prix du Moulin to wait for this, another big each-way player.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
10/1	★★★★★	★★★★★

HENRY LONGFELLOW (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs:  1-8243

“It takes less time to do a thing right than to explain why you did it wrong.” The American poet’s equine namesake came into the season with high expectations, ranked behind only star stablemate City of Troy.  After a no-show on soft ground in the French 2,000 Guineas, he excelled in the St James Palace at Ascot (round course), where it took the top class Rosallion the length of the straight to reel him in. However, has clearly regressed in last two runs so it remains to be seen if a return to the scene of his best performance will be “doing the right thing” by this outstanding two-year-old who has lost his mojo. Ground doubts here, also entered in Champion Stakes.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
14/1	★★★	★★

DIEGO VELASQUEZ (Tr. A P O’Brien)  |  Last 5 runs: 48011

One of the most exciting juveniles in this powerhouse yard last year but flopped on heavy ground in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster. Has taken a long while to shine this season, but last two runs on good ground have seen him run out the comfortable winner of both the G3 Meld Stakes and the G2 Solonaway stakes, so there could well be more to come. However, it seems unlikely that stable will risk him on autumn ground at Ascot, and in any case the Breeder’s Cup Mile at Del Mar has been mentioned as his most likely target.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
14/1	★★	★

QUDDWAH (Tr. S&E Crisford)  |  Last 5 runs:  11-114

Very lightly-raced four-year old, two-time C&D winner this season. Neither of those performance screamed Group 1 winner, however, and his subsequent fourth in the Jacques le Marois last time out did not do enough to eliminate the class question mark. That said, the Marois run was on unusually fast ground (by Deauville standards) and he may well want a bit more give underfoot – while sons of Kingman rarely excel on very soft ground, his dam was a winner on soft and ran respectably on heavy. Not yet fully exposed, not impossible.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
16/1	★★★★★	★★★

NASHWA (Tr. J&T Gosden)  |  Last 5 runs: 236-95

Very high-class mare (two Group 1 wins, three narrow defeats at that level) but now racking up a long losing streak. Took a long time to recover from a fruitless trip to Dubai in March but was deliberately rested with autumn campaign in mind. Very underwhelming return in G1 Sun Chariot, but that was predicted on fitness grounds, so considerable improvement is possible. Whether two weeks is enough to make the necessary quantum form leap is questionable, however. 33/1 would look a gift at her best, but there are lots of doubts, not least over her participation (also in Champion Stakes, might skip this meet altogether).

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
33/1	★★	★★

DANCING GEMINI (Tr. R Teal)  |  Last 5 runs:  5-2665

Promising two-year-old season with the highlights being a comfortable win in the listed Flying Scotsman (soft) and a fifth place (beaten three lengths) in the G1 Futurity Trophy (heavy).  This season got off to a bang with a half-length second to Metropolitan in the French 2000 Guineas on soft, and a sixth-place Derby effort was no disgrace. Has not run to that level since, however, so questions to answer. On the other hand, this would be his first return to a mile on likely soft ground, which could bring out the best of him. Interesting if he runs.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
40/1	★★★★	★★★★

SIRONA (Tr. D Menuisier)  |  Last 5 runs: 25621

German-bred filly who has peaked as a four-year-old, running very respectively at both listed and G3 level. Most recently won on heavy at Newmarket on 27 September, beating Fair Point (who was receiving 4lbs). Nothing to dislike about this filly apart from her established class level: With an official rating of 105 she faces a gargantuan task in this company. This race has yet to be confirmed as a definite target, but trainer David Menuisier is not afraid to tilt at windmills and has told the Anteposter she is a possible runner, with hopes that she might place. Quantum form leap needed, though if ground were desperate that might help.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★★	★

CHECKANDCHALLENGE (Tr. W Knight)  |  Last 5 runs:  86532

Five-year-old with quite a complex profile. Impressive three-year-old season saw him beat Facteur Cheval in a French G3 and finish close-up fourth in this race to Bayside Boy. Up and down last year before finishing fourth again in this race, albeit beaten a massive 15 lengths on very testing ground. Unimpressive in the spring and early summer, hence gelded, and two runs since have seen him placed behind decent yardsticks. Likes this time of year and OK on soft ground, one to consider at a big price when four places become available as he looks to be one of the likelier runners to outrun his odds. Confirmed to The Anteposter as an intended runner.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★★★	★★★

ICE MAX (Tr. K R Burke)  |  Last 5 runs: 14514

The standout piece of form of this three-year-old was his win in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood in August, although it seems likely that only he and runner-up Poker Face handled the very soft ground that day. Very disappointing last time out in G2 Joel Stakes (similar ground) behind Prague and Poker Face, finishing more than a dozen lengths off the winner. Doubtful if he can bounce back to his best after that, although his trainer has at least confirmed to The AntePoster that he is an intended runner.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
50/1	★★★★★	★

POKER FACE (Tr. S&E Crisford)  |  Last 5 runs: 7P242

Emerged as a high-quality three-year-old miler last year, racking up three consecutive wins in the latter part of the season, culminating in a comfortable success in the G2 Daniel Wildenstein on Arc weekend. Future continued to look bright when he finished second on seasonal debut to Charyn, now Europe’s top older miler, but this was followed by two poor runs. After a break, finished runner-up to Ice Max in the Celebration Mile and fourth behind Diego Velasquez in Ireland, before finishing three lengths behind Prague last time out. None of this form will be good enough here, as his official rating of 112 won’t give him a sniff of a place in this race, let alone a win.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★★★	★

ROYAL SCOTSMAN (Tr. P&O Cole)  |  Last 5 runs: 98912

Very promising two-year-old who was second in the G1 Dewhurst behind Chaldean before finishing third to the same horse in the 2,000 Guineas in 2022. Disappointed badly in next two races and was then off for almost a year. Best run since Guineas placing when winning at Epsom in June (G3 Diomed Stakes, form OK), but then out of action yet again for four months before making his return the Challenge Stakes on 11 October, running second (beaten five lengths) to promising French colt Topgear. This is a massive ask just one week later, but just occasionally this horse runs to a very high level.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
66/1	★★★	★★

LORD MASSUSUS (Tr. J G Murphy)  |  Last 5 runs: 71235

Heavily raced four-year-old (24 races) whose biggest win came when winning a weak G3 in Ireland in August 2023. Ran up to his best last time out in the Solonaway Stakes (fifth behind Diego Velasquez, Mountain Bear, and Poker Face) but now very exposed and very difficult to make any kind of case for in the strongest field he has ever faced.

Price	Chance of Running	Price Appeal
100/1	★★★★	★