Royal Ascot: Spanish court painter the right fit for Queen Anne at 25/1

The Spanish Golden Age, which kicked off towards the end of the late 15th century with the unions of the Kingdoms of Aragon and Castile, saw Spain reach the very height of its power and influence in Europe and beyond for the best part of 150 years. Buoyed by the wealth that accumulated as a result, this era was also accompanied by a remarkable flowering of Spanish literature and art.

In the latter sphere, one figure towers over them all: Diego Rodríguez de Silva y Velázquez, the pre-eminent painter at the court of King Philip IV, and one of the most famous names in the history of Western art. He was not hugely prolific in his output and his works almost never come on the market – the most recent one to be dangled in front of art buyers two years ago (before being withdrawn from the intended Sotheby’s auction by the sellers) was to have a guide price of $35 million.

But there’s clear value to be had on this artist in the here and now of thoroughbred horse racing. Specifically, his namesake Diego Velazquez, a four-year-old entire trained by Aidan O’Brien at Ballydoyle in Count Tipperary, looks to be the stable’s sole representative in the older horses’ miling division this year, with his first major target of his campaign being the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. The AntePoster finds it incomprehensible that he is trading at 25/1 for this prize.

Why so? Let’s do a deep dive into his career.

Classy juvenile gets stuck in the mud

Unlike many Ballydoyle first-time starters, Diego Velazquez was a winner on his first racecourse appearance at The Curragh in August 2023. Looking green and being niggled along after three furlongs of a seven-furlong maiden race, he knuckled down in response to Ryan Moore’s urgings and ran out an emphatic five-length winner in a field of 13, justifying his 2/5 starting price. Unsurprisingly he started a very short price again (8/15) in the G2 Champion Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown in September, winning by half a length from stablemate Capulet, the pair clear of the remainder.

Diego Velazquez’s standing in the stable – with a wealth of juvenile talent at its disposal that season – was underlined when he was flown over to Doncaster to contest the G1 Futurity Trophy the following month, but he failed to perform on desperate ground that day (“heavy”), disappointing his many backers (starting price: 9/4) by coming home sixth of seven, beaten just over four lengths. Season over.

Classic season part one – from good to bad to worse

To kick off his three-year-old season this colt was sent to Longchamp for the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (France’s 2,000 Guineas), along with the stable’s Henry Longfellow. The latter was the choice of Ryan Moore, and that factor – combined with punter memories of the Futurity Trophy run and a very wide draw, which is a serious negative over a mile at Longchamp – explains why Diego Velazquez was sent off as a lofty 17/1, whereas his stablemate started as 13/10 favourite. But it was the former who ran the much classier race, forced to race wide for much of the contest but closing to within a length by the line for fourth place.

That performance caught many an eye and explains why he was sent off much shorter price (6/1) in a field of 14 for the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) at Chantilly three weeks later. However, significant rainfall in the run-up to that race had turned the ground heavy, and for good measure Diego Velazquez had drawn wide again. Moore urge his mount into a prominent position right from the gate but was again trapped in the widest path, and although he briefly took the lead 1.5 furlongs out that effort told on the testing ground and he faded into eighth, beaten five lengths. But there's no doubt that the race he ran was better than his finishing position suggests.

Presumably on the assumption that the ground, rather than any stamina deficiencies, was responsible for the very weak finishing effort in the French Derby, Aidan O’Brien then sent Diego Velazquez up in trip for the King Edward VI Stakes over 12 furlongs at Royal Ascot. Punters got back on board and then some, backing him down to 2/1 in a field of 14, but had their fingers badly burned as he trailed home in tenth, “weakening quickly over 1f out” in the words of the Racing Post. The corresponding analysis limited its observations to the phrase “evidently didn’t give his true running”.

Classic season part two – redemption then aborted Del Mar trip

Time for a reset. Aidan O’Brien opted for a drop in both class and trip the following month, sending Diego Velazquez to the G3 Meld Stakes over nine furlongs at Leopardstown. The result was emphatic and impressive, the son of Frankel putting a hefty seven lengths between himself the filly Tarawa in the final two furlongs. Retrospectively, this was some performance on the formbook as well as the eye – not only would Tarawa go on to win a G3 next time out (from a filly who would subsequently win a G2 on Champions Weekend), she would also go on to be beaten just five lengths in the Breeders Cup Mile at Del Mar.

Del Mar was also the end-of-season target for Diego Velazquez, but first of all came an engagement in the G2 Solonaway Stakes in September on Irish Champions Weekend. Sent off a shade of odds-on at 10/11, he shrugged off the disadvantage of the widest draw and came home clear of a decent G2 field containing the likes of Mutasarref, Mountain Bear, Poker Face and Maljoom.

Following these two strong back-to-back wins, Diego Velazquez was sent over to the US as the stable’s sole representative for the Breeders Cup Mile at Del Mar in early November but was scratched 36 hours before the race for veterinary reasons that were never made entirely clear. What is noteworthy, however, is that he was vying for favouritism with Notable Speech, Ramatuelle and Porta Fortuna at the time of his withdrawal.

Diego Velazquez has yet to run as a four-year-old, but connections have circled the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot as his primary early-season target.

Summary

Diego Velazquez is one of a small but select number of older horses remaining in training at Ballydoyle this year, a group that includes Kyprios, Los Angeles, Illinois, Jan Brueghel, Tower of London, and the imported Storm Boy. What stands out immediately is that none of these stable stars will be campaigned over a mile, which is where “The Lads” (Messrs Magnier, Tabor, Smith) are pointing this son of Frankel. The AntePoster believes this high-class horse will prove a serious force in the mile division in Europe this year, not least because he has shown a degree of ground versatility that other key rivals – most notably Rosallion and Notable Speech – appear to lack.

As always, the particular attraction of this bet is the price. As long as there is no inexplicable disaster in any prep run for the race – and he has run excellent races on both seasonal debuts to date – it's simply inconceivable that Diego Velazquez can start anywhere near 25-1 for the Queen Anne. A single-digit starting price looks likely, and if the ground were to be on the soft side (possibly prompting the withdrawal of Rosallion and Notable Speech) O’Brien’s horse could quite feasibly end up as second or third choice in the betting.

One red flag that should be pointed out is Diego Velazquez’s additional entry for the Prince of Wales Stakes over 10 furlongs on the Wednesday of Royal Ascot. However, multiple entries are the norm for this stable, and with Los Angeles having performed strongly on his reappearance and the Prince of Wales firmly circled as this stablemate’s main early summer target, the chances of connections sending both colts to that longer race and leaving nothing for the Queen Anne on the Tuesday look remote. Still, it’s an antepost risk that needs to be taken on board.

Given this factor and the six-week time risk in this antepost play, we would advise a strictly win-only approach. Those who use the exchanges are likely be able to lay off part of the bet profitably in the run-up to the race.

Recommendation: Back Diego Velazquez at 25/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, 888, or Betfair Sportsbook to win the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot on 17 June. Win only.