Écurie Graffard: the entries for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas)

Introduction

Last month we published two guides to the first Classics of the British flat racing season, namely the 2000 Guineas (2 May) and the 1000 Guineas (3 May), focusing on the top 20 or so horses in the antepost betting for each race.

We have decided not to undertake the same task for the French equivalents – the Poule d'Essai des Poulains and Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (hereafter "Poulains" and "Pouliches" for short). For one thing there is a huge amount of doubt surrounding the running plans of even French trainers for the first French Classics at this stage, while the extreme lateness of the decisions typically made by British and Irish trainers to target these races makes the prospect of such an exercise feel even more futile to us.

Instead, we thought we would take a look at the potential contenders for these races (and in a few cases also the Newmarket equivalents) stabled just to the north of the town of Lamorlaye near Chantilly, the home of Graffard Racing.

Francis-Henri Graffard needs no introduction to anyone who has been following international flat racing in recent seasons. In a short space of time, he has risen to the very top of the training ranks on the other side of La Manche, and has a stable packed with talent in every age group.

In this article, we focus on the top three-year old entire colts ("poulains") of the Graffard stable who are entered in the first Classic of the French season (this year: 10 May), a week after the equivalent contest on Newmarket's Rowley Mile. While it is true that this stable has yet to win the Poulains, Graffard has won the Pouliches for the last two years, and it is surely only a matter of time before his operation takes a colt to glory at Longchamp on the second Sunday in May.

Two aspects in particular should be noted:

• Two of the eight colts analysed below are entered in both the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Poulains at Longchamp a week later. It would be an unparallelled step in the modern era for a colt to attempt to win both prizes, so the connections of the two horses in question – Rayif and Samangan, both belonging to Aga Khan Studs – have a decision to make in this respect. No less than five Aga Khan horses have a Poulains entry, and as the 2000 Guineas entries were made only a few weeks ago the possibility of throwing a colt in against the English and Irish at Newmarket is clearly at the back of connections' minds: Rayif in particular could be better suited to Newmarket for ground-related reasons, although in fact (see the corresponding horse entry below) it looks as if Samangan is the more likely one to target the race. However, it's worth remembering that we have not seen the famous Aga Khan green and red silks on the Rowley Mile in May for many a moon.

  
  

• The prices given in blue on at the top right of each entry are taken from the only bookmaker to be pricing this market up (Unibet). Unlike the English Guineas, this is an illiquid and wholly unattractive market with a gross "overround" (current betting was to almost 400% at the time of writing). Perhaps this is understandable in view of the swirling uncertainties over almost every runner, but it makes us reluctant to proffer any antepost price observations (as we did in our English Guineas articles) on the current prices of horses in the list below.

We hope you find this informative material that will allow to you "get ahead" when it comes to evaluating the top 3yo milers based in this powerful stable, many of whom are set to run over the next ten days. Look out for our fillies' companion piece next week.

Happy reading.

Daniel Morgan

The AntePoster

Rayif (Aga Khan Studs) Poulains antepost price: 8/1

Pedigree: Sea The Moon/Rayisa (Holy Roman Emperor)

Form: 113

Rating: RPR 102, Timeform 109

Career: Won maiden on debut by a neck as 11/10 favourite over 6 furlongs at Deauville on 5 July; easy winner (2.5 lengths) of the G3 Prix Francois Boutin over 7 furlongs at Deauville on 17 August, form looks solid; third in G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère over 7 furlongs on Arc day, beaten 3.75 lengths by Puerto Rico.

Other Classic entries: English 2000 Guineas, Prix du Jockey Club.

Current status: Entered in the Prix de Fontainebleau over a mile at Longchamp on 12 April. Racing manager Nemone Routh confirmed on 30 April that he was still a possibility for Newmarket, "but if the Prix du Fontainebleau goes well for Rayif then he would be more likely for the French Guineas I would have thought."

Assessment: Rayif's easy win in the Prix Francois Boutin over a solid yardstick in Andab was one of the most eye-catching performances by a juvenile last season, with even Graffard referring to it as "quite extraordinary". On that basis, more might have been expected from this son on Sea The Moon on his first start at Longchamp in the Lagardère. However, it is worth noting that Rayif came from well off the pace on Arc day in a race where that probably wasn't an advantageous tactic to adopt. In addition, the ground will have been plenty soft enough for this colt after rain in the 24 hours leading up to the race: it's worth noting that Graffard even cast doubt on his participation on Arc day after the Boutin win: "He’ll likely be targeting the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Gr. I) on October 5, but I don’t want to risk him getting bogged down on ground that’s too soft." This exciting colt would be a very interesting candidate for the English Guineas (currently 40/1), where the ground is decent more often than not, but for now the newsflow points to him staying at home for the French equivalent (for which he is now second favourite).

Regal Resolve (Juddmonte Farms) Poulains antepost price: 10/1

Pedigree: Kingman/Wisdom Mind (Dark Angel)

Form: 411

Rating: RPR 100, Timeform 97p

Career: 4th on debut at Deauville on 4 August; easy winner (5.5 lengths) of an all-weather conditions race at Chantilly on 2 October (7/10 fav) over 9 furlongs, form looks weak now; kept to 9 furlongs and won the listed Prix Isonomy by 1.5 lengths over same C&D (started 7/10 fav once again) on 27 October: form holds up, as 3rd has won a listed race since and 4th has also won.

Other Classic entries: Prix Du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris.

Current status: Entered in G3 Prix La Force over 9 furlongs at Longchamp on 5 April. Per the stable, this will provide the basis for deciding on next steps.

Assessment: There still looks to be plenty of upside with this son of Kingman. Although the form of his two wins on the all-weather against far from top competition looks nothing out of the ordinary, the Prix Isonomy win in particular was not run at a fast pace yet Regal Resolve picked up smartly and was ultimately well on top at the line. In the aftermath of that victory, Graffard alluded to his colt's ground preferences, which could be a concern if Longchamp has a wet spring: "We know he’s good...he’s a horse that performs best on firm ground, and without these options on the sand, we wouldn’t have seen him again this autumn."

Ground aside, another slight question mark would be the suitability of the Poulains distance as a key early-season target for this horse (later entries include the Prix du Jockey Club over 10.5 furlongs and Grand Prix de Paris over 12 furlongs): Regal Resolve's two wins at the backend of last season were at nine furlongs, and his reappearance run slated for 5 April is also over that trip (and often won by a middle-distance type, e.g. Cualificar last year). The drop back to a mile for the Poulains therefore looks open to doubt, for all that this colt is currently the third favourite for the race.

Lord Clover (Ballylinch Stud) Poulains antepost price: 16/1

Pedigree: Siyouni/Lady Frankel (Frankel)

Form: 1

Rating: Sole performance not yet rated at time of writing

Career: Fell over in parade ring on first intended start, hence declared a non-runner (accident on icy surface, not coltish behaviour); won a conditions race on Chantilly's all-weather track 25 February by 6.5 lengths as the 3/5 favourite.

Other Classic entries: Prix du Jockey Club.

Current status: Entered in another conditions race (Prix de la Croix de Pontarme) over a mile at Chantilly on 2 April. Per the stable, this run will give them a better idea of the likely next step.

Assessment: Lord Clover was an extremely arresting winner on his (belated) debut. Admittedly it was not a strong race, as the opposition comprised a host of maidens, most of whom were thoroughly exposed, while the only runback horse – who finished 4th – was thrashed by an even greater margin in two subsequent outings. However, the margin of victory suggested this son of Siyouni was in a different league to his rivals, while both the time of the race and the closing sectionals were impressive. Christophe Soumillon commented to the French press afterwards: "He's won that in a pretty incredible way. With a little luck, he could be a real Classic hope for this season." More will become apparent on 2 April at Chantilly.

Ebiyar (Aga Khan Studs) Poulains antepost price: 20/1

Pedigree: Siyouni/Ebiyza (Rock of Gibraltar)

Form: 1

Rating: RPR 87, Timeform -

Career: Won maiden on debut (sole start) over 9 furlongs at Longchamp on 19 October by a neck. No runbacks from 2nd and 3rd since. Of the others, the 4th and 5th have not improved since, the 7th (Fabre-trained) has improved (and won), while the 8th has regressed.

Other Classic entries: Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris.

Current status: Entered in G3 Prix La Force over 9 furlongs at Longchamp on 5 April. Per the stable, this run will give them a better idea of the likely next step.

Assessment: The form of Ebiyar's debut victory has not worked out, but as a once-raced colt there is no telling how much improvement this son of Siyouni may yet have. Slight question mark over the Poulains as a target given the choice of 9 furlongs for both his debut run and his seasonal debut later this week. One to watch closely at Longchamp over the Easter weekend.

Samangan (Aga Khan Studs) Poulains antepost price: 25/1

Pedigree: Blue Point/Samadrisa (Oasis Dream)

Form: 4111

Rating: RPR 108, Timeform 110p

Career: Finished 4th on debut over 7 furlongs at Compiegne on 21 July; easy winner (4.5 lengths) of a conditions race over 5.5 furlongs at Deauville on 26 August; won G3 Prix Eclipse over 6 furlongs at Chantilly on 20 September by 0.5 lengths (beaten horses have not done anything for form since); won G2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte at Chantilly over 6 furlongs on 11 October by 2.5 lengths (started 1-5 fav); 2nd has been beaten a neck in a listed race since.

Other Classic entries: English 2000 Guineas, Prix du Jockey Club.

Current status: Entered in in Prix Djebel over 7 furlongs at Deauville on 7 April. On 30 April, racing manager Nemone Routh floated the possibility of this being used a potential prep for the Newmarket Guineas: "The idea is to find out whether [Samangan] can get the straight seven furlongs at Deauville, as if [he stays] the seven well then we could have the possibility to try [him] in the [English] Guineas."

Assessments: The top-rated horse in this list, Samangan improved leaps and bounds last season after his modest debut in July last year, with the reversion to sprint trips possibly an important factor in his improvement. Given that profile and his elite-sprinting sire, the mile might be considered a question mark, for all that the dam side imparts a considerable amount of stamina, and this colt presumably wouldn't have been given an entry in the Prix du Jockey Club (10.5 furlongs) if connections had doubts over him getting a mile. It was interesting that in the aftermath of the Maison-Laffitte win Graffard commented: “If I keep him at 1,200 meters, we have to aim for the Commonwealth Cup (Gr. I in June 2026) at Royal Ascot. That’s probably what I’ll do.” Indeed, Samangan has a Commonwealth Cup entry and currently sits at co-fourth in the antepost betting for that race at 14/1. However, given the comments of racing manager Nemone Routh (see above), a potential English Guineas diversion looks to be on the cards, for which he is a best-priced 40/1. Expect that to shorten dramatically if he finishes powerfully to win the Djebel.

Vardif (Aga Khan Studs) Poulains antepost price: 25/1

Pedigree: Siyouni/Vadalda (Nathaniel)

Form: 2139

Rating: RPR 91, Timeform 101

Career: Finished second to the useful Afjan over 5.5 furlongs at Chantilly on debut on 1 June; easy 2.5-length winner (1/10 fav) of conditions race at Chantilly on 8 July (form looks weak, no improvement from horses behind since); only 3rd of 4 in the Prix la Rochette over 7 furlongs on 11 September but finished just 1.5 lengths behind the very smart Nighttime (2nd to Puerto Rico in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère subsequently); started 25/1 but still very disappointing last of nine in said Lagardère on 5 October, on this occasion finishing ten lengths behind Nighttime.

Other Classic entries: Prix du Jockey Club, Grand Prix de Paris.

Current status: Per stable, plans remain fluid for this horse.

Assessment: Last year's Prix de Rochette third in September represents high-class form, whereas Vardif's final run on Arc day was bitterly disappointing. It seems reasonable to conclude that this son of Siyouni did not give his true running on that occasion (had been beaten just 1.5 lengths by Nighttime previously), and it was notable how his chances in the Lagardère were not dismissed by racing manager Nemone Routh in the run-up to the race: "Vardif came out of his prep run well after being given a bit of a conservative ride. It’s really brought him on and while Mickael Barzalona has chosen Rayif, we still think [Vardif] has a chance of running a decent race." It was not to be, however, and even his best form makes this colt a Poulains outsider at the moment; he had no entries recorded on France Galop at the time of writing.

Daryzan (Aga Khan Studs) Poulains antepost price: 33/1

Pedigree: Zarak/Daryakana (Selkirk)

Form: -

Rating: -

Career: Unraced.

Other Classic entries: Prix du Jockey Club, Grand Prix de Paris.

Current status: Per stable, plans remain fluid for this horse.

Assessment: Catches the eye on breeding and has all the three French Classic entries, but yet to see a racecourse and has no upcoming entries listed on France Galop. Daryzan will have to get a run under his belt soon and perform very strongly if he's to have any chance of lining up at Longchamp on 9 May.

Real News (Hisaaki Saito) Poulains antepost price: 50/1

Pedigree: New Bay/Lady Light (Showcasing)

Form: 4155

Rating: RPR 84, Timeform -

Career: First three starts for Christopher Head: came 4th on debut on 3 September at Lyon Parilly; won a conditions race on 2nd start by 0.75 lengths at Chantilly on 2 October (form mixed); then 5th in listed race at Deauville on 2 November, beaten four lengths. Finished fifth but beaten just 0.75 lengths on debut for Graffard in a conditions race at Saint-Cloud last weekend (29 March).

Other Classic entries: None.

Current status: Per stable, plans remain fluid for this horse.

Assessment: Real News didn't really progress after winning his maiden last October, though his subsequent listed race 5th in a listed race was at least not a regression on the form book. After just the one start for Graffard earlier this week it will be interesting to see how he fares next time out; unclear what this one's plans are next, though he would surely have to run again – and improve significantly – if he is to gain a berth in the first colts' Classic in France, let alone challenge for top honours.