2000 Guineas – a comprehensive antepost preview

Introduction

Why undertake a study of the 2000 Guineas market in February?

Our initial response to this question would be “why not”? After all, the first Classic of the British flat racing season is little more than two months away. The winner is overwhelmingly likely to come from the 28 horses that top the betting and form the basis of this study, and the 2025 juvenile season (and in some cases the 2026 3yo season) provides a decent body of evidence from which conclusions can be drawn and opinions formed.

This market is about to be shaken up on Saturday, when Talk of New York (who was the talk of Kempton in mid-October when bolting up on debut with sizzling sectionals) makes his second start in Dubai, in exactly the same race last year by Charlie Appleby to provide a springboard for Ruling Court's successful bid for Guineas glory. Time for punters to get ahead with their homework and look at this and every other horse in depth.

Overview of current antepost market

The analysis below focuses on the top 28 horses in the betting for the English 2000 Guineas on 2 May for which prices are quoted by at least three bookmakers. It encompasses all form to date as well as our interpretations of these colts' respective likelihoods of running. This latter aspect is informed not just by trainer comments in the media, but also by stable responses to The AntePoster's questions in the last week. We are very grateful to all trainers and their racing staff who gave their time to update us on their running plans.

Current betting for 2000 Guineas on 2 May 2026

Godolphin and Coolmore – the 2000 Guineas powerhouses

Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby, retained trainers for the two most powerful flat racing operations in Europe, have won six of the last nine runnings of this Group 1 race for 3-year-olds. Unsurprisingly, they account for more than a half of the colts included in this above list (Aidan O'Brien 10, Charlie Appleby 7).

However, one certainty is that the vast majority of the colts quoted in the antepost market for these yards will not run. The average number of runners in last 5 years from these makes this starkly clear (O’Brien 2.0, Appleby 1.9), and one important aspect of our analysis below is to flag up those horses who we consider to be likely (or sure-fire) absentees when the stall handlers start loading the field into the gates on Newmarket Heath in nine weeks’ time. There are plenty of these.

Another important thing is to be aware of is the remarkable shift that has taken place in the last few years when it comes to 2000 Guineas success – a new trend that does not extend to the other British Classics. Specifically, the potency of the challenge from Aidan O’Brien’s top colts has waned alarmingly, whereas Appleby has built up an extraordinary head of steam.

Rise and Fall – Appleby vs. O’Brien over the last five years

Specifically, in the last five editions of the English 2000 Guineas (2021 to 2025), the finishing positions of all horses raced by these powerhouse stables are as follows:

Aidan O’Brien:  8003000997 Charlie Appleby: 246126013

Five years is not a large dataset, but we still find these figures astounding. As we explained in an article focusing on Aidan O’Brien’s record in the first British Classic of the season ten months ago (see here), the modus operandi of Ballydoyle for the last quarter century has been to send the stable’s Guineas horses to Newmarket without a prep run. Indeed, this “Straight To Newmarket” (“STN”) approach has been employed in the case of every single winner of the Guineas sent out by the Ballydoyle yard based in County Tipperary since Aidan O’Brien provided Magnier & Co. with their first winner back in 1999.

That policy has not changed, but its outcomes emphatically have in recent years – dramatically. We suspect the stable’s view has shifted from the 2000 Guineas being of paramount importance as the first Classic of the season to being just a starting point for a prolonged campaign in which their horses are trained with a view peaking later and maintaining a high level of form right through to November. And in our view, that subtle shift in emphasis has played a significant role in the failure of the majority of O’Brien’s 2000 Guineas entrants to perform to their best on the Rowley Mile, for all that individual “blowouts” may have had other reasons in specific cases.

Put simply, we don't believe Aidan O'Brien really wants his horses to hit their very peak on the first Saturday in May. And possibly with good reason. After all, he witnessed the 3-year-old seasons of his four most recent winners peter out quickly: Gleneagles (2015) performed best, winning the Irish Guineas and the St James Palace but fizzling out in two autumn outings. Churchill (2017) won the Irish Guineas but then lost his next five races, Saxon Warrior (2018) never added to his tally in five outings after glory on the Rowley Mile, and Magna Grecia was likewise beaten in both his subsequent starts.

So despite O'Brien's very poor 2000 Guineas record over the last five years, we don't anticipate any change to the stable's "STN" approach (avoiding a prep run). If that did change – i.e. were Gstaad, for example, to be given a warm-up race in the weeks leading up to the 2000 Guineas – we would revise the chances of that horse's success on the Rowley Mile as we think it would enhance his chances exponentially: note how well Henri Matisse performed in the French Guineas last year on the back of a prep run. But we doubt it will happen.

2026 running: an open antepost market with no clear favourite

The market is not immune to that fact. For this year’s 2000 Guineas, no Ballydoyle runner is quoted in less than double figures as things stand, an unprecedented situation in itself. But the equally remarkable feature of this antepost market is that no horse from any stable is priced at less than 10/1. The AntePoster cannot recall another late-winter situation in which the market had failed to identify a single-figure price just a couple of months out from the race.

The English 2000 Guineas puzzle is therefore a complex one to grapple with this year, and the final lines of our analysis of each horse below are ultimately only a reflection of our own thoughts on “value” in the current antepost market. As the reader, you may have very different views, and we would very much welcome any comments. A box for comments for precisely that can be found at the very bottom of the article; we also welcome engagement via replies to our posting of this article on X / former Twitter.

Happy reading.

Daniel Morgan The AntePoster

Bow Echo (10/1)

Night of Thunder / Aristocratic Lady (Invincible Spirit)

Trainer: George Boughey

Form: 111 RPR: 111 Timeform: 111p

Analysis: Three horse sit at the top of the 2000 Guineas betting, and we kick off with George Boughey's colt by Night of Thunder, who is unbeaten in three runs. An easy, 4.5 length debut victory at Newbury in August was followed by victory in the Ascendant Stakes (listed) at Ascot three weeks later, this time seeing off the highly-regarded Publish from the Gosden yard. Justified favouritism in the Royal Lodge at the end of September, albeit only by a length from Chesham Stakes winner Humidity, the form given additional substance by the subsequent run of the third-placed Action (close 2nd in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster the following month).

Boughey has made no attempt to hide his admiration of this colt, who he has described as "head and shoulders above any colt we've trained", and as Bow Echo has yet to taste defeat he has to be considered a player. That said, he has not achieved anything like as much as some of his major rivals on the form book. 10/1 looks skinny to us.

Status: In the aftermath of the Dewhurst win, Boughey's initial thoughts were to go straight to the 2000 Guineas without a run: "The Guineas is very much the plan and I don't think he's a horse that needs to trial."

Gstaad (10/1)

Starspangled Banner / Mosa Mine (Exceed and Excel)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 112221 RPR: 117 Timeform: 116

Analysis: Won on debut in May and then the G2 Coventry Stakes in June, before three runner-up placings at Group 1 level in a busy summer/autumn campaign. It's worth noting that the widest-margin defeat of those was just three quarters of a length (Dewhurst Stakes to Gewan, who arguably had the run of that race), with the Prix Morny (Venetian Sun) and National Stakes (Zavateri) being much closer affairs. Didn't have to be at his best to break his G1 duck in his final 2yo start against largely US opposition in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar in December.

There is a strong case to be made that Gstaad has the strongest book of juvenile form in this antepost market. He has never failed to perform to a very high level and is arguably unlucky not to have a stronger G1 trophy haul (Prix Morny came after a break, was bumped by a stablemate at the start in the National Stakes, then keen and had slight traffic issues in Dewhurst Stakes). In this sense his price is attractive. However, regarding his chances on the Rowley Mile in May, the biggest concern would surely be the plummeting strike rate of his stable in this race described above. As an additional factor, being a half-brother to Vandeek he also needs to prove that he has trained on. When these aspects are taken into account, the 10/1 looks no more than fair, though Gstaad will obviously start much shorter if he is indeed the stable's no. 1.

Status: "Gstaad looks probably an English Guineas horse to start off," said trainer Aidan O'Brien in late January. That wording would perhaps imply that Gstaad will go straight to HQ without a run, in keeping with the stable's traditional approach.

Albert Einstein (10/1)

Wootton Bassett / Yet (War Front)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 11 RPR: 105 Timeform: 107p

Analysis: Has headed this market for many months, despite only having run twice back in May last year. Narrowly won maiden at Naas (form now looks very weak) before backing up just a fortnight later in the G3 Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. That second piece of form took a big boost when runner-up Power Blue won the G1 Phoenix Stakes in August, but we have yet to see this son of Wootton Bassett since. Quite the mystery horse.

Overall, there seemed to be something of the "chosen one" about this colt in various comments made by his trainer last year, so on that basis alone Albert Einstein should be taken seriously. But that notion seems to have been abandoned now (see below), and after his truncated 2025 campaign he looks a simply dreadful betting proposition at 10/1.

Status: Tellingly, Albert Einstein was not flagged up by Aidan O'Brien as a potential 2000 Guineas runner a month ago, in contrast to Gstaad (the most likely) and Puerto Rico (quite possible). Indeed, when O'Brien was asked to name a few horses in his stable who might step up this season, Albert Einstein was only the fifth horse mentioned in a list of six.

Gewan (12/1)

Night of Thunder / Grey Mystere (Lethal Force)

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Form: 1141 RPR: 119 Timeform: 118

Analysis: For all that trainers can be creatures of habit, the similarities in the campaigning of Balding's previous 2000 winner Chaldean and this colt are quite remarkable: Newbury novice, Acomb at York, Champagne at Doncaster, Dewhurst at Newmarket. The two key differences are that Chaldean had two Newbury runs before the Acomb as opposed to Gewan's one, while the former was an emphatic winner of the Champagne whereas the latter was a lacklustre fourth of five.

Perhaps that blot on his copybook – and the fact that he was sent off as a 25-1 outsider in the Dewhurst as a result – explains why Gewan is not even sharing co-favouritism for the first Classic in May. Some commentators have also suggested that Gewan had the run of things in the Dewhurst, with a keen Gstaad having twice had to be switched to find racing room. Nonetheless, there can be no denying he beat the right horses that day (Gstaad and the previously unbeaten Zavateri being the best European colts on the ratings at that point) so in that sense the form looks strong.

Moreover, in January the panel of international handicappers saw fit to crown Gewan as the European Champion Juvenile for 2025 with a rating of 121, two points higher than Chaldean was assigned after his 2yo campaign. On that basis this Night of Thunder colt looks a big player for the first Classic at 12/1, not least as Balding is the only one of the trainers at the very top of the market who has a strong 2000 Guineas record in recent years.

All in all, Gewan looks to us to be the most attractively priced of the market leaders at this stage. That said, perhaps connections will be looking nervously at the skies in the run-up to the race, as their colt is unbeaten in three races on G/F, but disappointed in the Champagne Stakes where there was some give.

Status: While the 2000 Guineas is an unwavering target, there has been a shift in the newsflow as to whether Gewan will head to Newmarket without a prep or not. Racing manager Paul Curran observed in January that the Dewhurst winner was "more than likely going to go straight [to Newmarket]", but Anne-Lisa Balding provided a rather different steer to the media when out in Saudi Arabia two weeks ago: "He’s in really good form. He’s strong, fresh and bucking like a good thing. I'd say there’s a good chance he'll run before he goes to Newmarket."

In response to a query from The AntePoster on this issue, Andrew Balding responded on 24 February that no final decision had been made on a prep run.

Puerto Rico (12/1)

Wootton Bassett / April Showers (Galileo)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 42224111 RPR: 116 Timeform: 117

Analysis: Stop the clock after five races of Puerto Rico's 2yo campaign and you have a half-decent colt but one with clear limitations: yet to win a race of any kind, and quite evidently not one of Ballydoyle's leading lights. But then the penny dropped – or more likely, perhaps the step up in trip enabled this son of Wootton Bassett (out of a Galileo mare) to show what he was truly capable of: Group 2 win at York (Champagne, 7f), Group 1 win at Longchamp (Jean-Luc Lagardere, 7f), Group 1 win at Saint-Cloud (Criterium International, mile). That's an impressive trio of juvenile performances by any measure.

On the one hand, this late-season campaign gives Puerto Rico a claim to be one of the top juveniles of 2025, and indeed he is generally rated broadly on a par with stablemate Gstaad. On the other, we are sceptical about what he achieved in those soft-ground wins in France at the back-end of the campaign, while his comfortable defeat of Gewan at Doncaster looks very much a case to that rival underperforming hugely.

Puerto Rico is the most experienced of the short-priced Guineas contenders heading into 2026 and the only winner of two Group 1s, but given our concerns over those G1 form achievements, the stable's poor Guineas record in recent years, and the slight question mark hanging over his participation (see below), we consider him to be an unappealing antepost proposition at 12/1.

Status: "In the mix for the first Saturday in May, but not definite per newsflow at the end of January. O'Brien: “Puerto Rico is a good, strong, big, mature horse. He could be an English Guineas horse or a French Guineas horse on the way to an Irish Guineas." And later at the same press conference: “Maybe the two [i.e. Gstaad and Puerto Rico] would go to the Guineas [at Newmarket].

Hawk Mountain (14/1)

Wootton Bassett / Hydrangea (Galileo)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 5111 RPR: 116 Timeform: 117p

Analysis: Made his debut in August last year, beaten several lengths into 5th. Then won a maiden later that month. Was next seen out when easily winning the G2 Beresford Stakes in September, but that did not look a strong edition of that race so it was no surprise to see this colt end up third string on jockey bookings in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster at the end of October. However, Hawk Mountain had other ideas and duly upset his two more-fancied stablemates in the form of favourite Benvenuto Cellini and second-favourite Action.

Although it is impossible to place a ceiling on the potential heights this son of Wootton Bassett can reach, both stride data and form suggest a horse who will thrive over longer distances than a mile as a 3-year-old. But our disinterest in this horse for betting purposes also stems from major doubts over him making the trip across the Irish Sea to the Rowley Mile in May (see below). He represents dreadful antepost value at 14/1.

Status: Hawk Mountain was not mentioned by Aidan O'Brien last month as one of his likely English 2000 Guineas contenders. Instead he commented as follows: He [Hawk Mountain] won the Futurity and could be a French Derby horse. He could be an Epsom Derby horse, too." While the pieces of the complex Ballydoyle jigsaw are never fixed in place this far out from any race, the early indications are clearly that we will not see this horse at Newmarket.

Talk of New York (14/1)

Wootton Bassett / Usherette (Sharmardal)

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Form: 1 RPR: 93 Timeform: 94p

Analysis: Ballydoyle do not have a monopoly on the offspring of Wootton Bassett for this year's 2000 Guineas. The leading Godolphin hope (in the betting at least) has raced just once (on the all-weather track at Kempton Park, mid-October), making him by some way the least experienced colt of those at the front of the Guineas market. Having won just a maiden he therefore has by far the lowest rating too, but the manner of that victory and (more importantly) the sectionals he recorded in doing so mark him out an outstanding prospect. In the aftermath of that victory his performance was noted by many, and Talk of New York was duly recommended as an antepost bet by Hugh Taylor (longstanding At The Races tipster), prompting a collapse in price from 25-1 to the current 14/1.

On bare form this colt has a mountain to climb, and it's very dangerous to extrapolate Classic success from a single maiden run. However, it shouldn't be forgotten that Appleby took Notable Speech to Guineas glory on the back of exclusively Kempton racing, and his recent record demands that any horse he points to this race be taken seriously. All in all, 14/1 doesn't look unreasonable for a horse who may be considerably shorter in the betting by the weekend (see below). A high-risk, high-reward play.

Status: Talk of New York is pointed at the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas in Dubai, a race won in 2025 by last year's Guineas winner Ruling Court for the same connections. It would hardly be surprising if his price tumbled further within seconds of that race unfolding, and possibly in the run-up to the race. Equally, he may simply evaporate from the betting if he flops.

Distant Storm (16/1)

Night of Thunder / Date With Destiny (George Washington)

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Form: 1313 RPR: 113 Timeform: 112

Analysis: Won his maiden at the July Meeting from Constitution River but was unable to justify favouritism in the Acomb at York, beaten more than two lengths by Gewan into third. Got back on track emphatically in the G3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket in late September, coming home almost 5 lengths clear of the field. Again put in his place by Gewan in the Dewhurst Stakes, but ran with credit to finish 3rd of 9, beaten just over two lengths.

It will be interesting to see how this colt has developed since last October (ideally he would have a prep run to provide clues, which Appleby has said is a possibility), but he will need to have done very well over the winter to reverse form with Gewan on two clear pieces of racecourse evidence. Viewed in that light, the 16/1 available looks less attractive than the 12/1 on Andrew Balding's stable star. That said, it's Appleby we are talking about here, and the Godolphin trainer made it very clear in the aftermath of the Dewhurst that Distant Storm was very much a Guineas propsect (see below).

If he does end up as the stable number 1 in May – which he may well do, depending on how stablemate Talk of New York performs this coming weekend – he will surely end up in single figures. 16/1 is probably fair at this point.

Status: Appleby commented as follows after the Dewhurst: "William [Buick] said he rode like a horse who will be better with some time over winter to develop. He felt that the immaturity was coming out in him today, but he's lost nothing in defeat as we see him as a Guineas horse next year. Whether he runs in the Craven Stakes or has a racecourse gallop before that, we'll have to see."

Constitution River (16/1)

Wootton Bassett / Chuppy (Le Havre)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 211 RPR: 106 Timeform: 109p

Analysis: Narrowly beaten by Distant Storm at the July meeting last July before then comfortably winning a maiden at Galway later that month at 1/5. Not seen since justifying favouritism once again (at 5/6, four-runner race) in the G2 EBF Futurity at The Curragh in late August, where he beat a horse of Ger Lyons called Geryon by 2 lengths (Hawk Mountain would then beat the same horse by 3.25 lengths a month later). Stamina on the dam side suggests longer distance might suit, but he actually strides like a miler. Could well have a bright future, but his three runs so far don't scream major player in the first English Classic, and to add to the negatives his participation remains highly doubtful. No appeal at 16/1.

Status: Interesting and unexposed horse, but not mentioned by Aidan O'Brien last month as a Guineas prospect.

Publish (20/1)

Kingman / Nay Lady Nay (No Nay Never)

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Form: 212 RPR: 96 Timeform: 107p

Analysis: Caught many an eye when beaten 0.5 lengths on debut in a 7f maiden at Sandown (splitting two Appleby debutants, form hasn't worked out). Duly broke maiden on next start beating Appleby's Catullus (romping maiden winner next time out, then distant fourth to Distant Storm in Tattersalls Stakes) three weeks later, again at Sandown over seven furlongs. Upped in trip and grade, he then gave Bow Echo quite the fright in the Ascendant Stakes (mile, listed class), coming from last to first (7-horse field) within less than a furlong before hanging badly in final half-furlong and allowing that rival to get back up (by a length at the line).

Looks a high-class prospect for Juddmonte and no forlorn hope to reverse form with Bow Echo. Interesting and not dismissed at 20/1, for all that others have better form.

Status: The AntePoster learnt from Clarehaven on 23 February that Publish is to have a Guineas entry and that a trial is on the cards.

Pierre Bonnard (20/1)

Camelot / Sultanina (New Approach)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 4111 RPR: 110 Timeform: 112p

Analysis: Well beaten on debut over a mile at Leopardstown in late July, then broke maiden three weeks later at Dundalk over the same trip. Took his form to another level two months later when justifying favouritism in the Zetland Stakes over 10 furlongs at Newmarket, before comfortably taking the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud a fortnight after that. These late-season exploits immediately catapulted this colt to the head of the Epsom Derby betting, a position he maintains to this day (6/1, less than half the price of the next horse quoted).

While there is no doubting that this is one exciting colt (for all that we have niggling doubts about the strength of his form), there is no evidence at all to suggest we will see him on the Rowley Mile any time soon, as all the data – form, breeding, stride, stable comments – point to a 3yo campaign at distances in excess of a mile. In our view, an antepost bet on this fellow at 20/1 would be folly.

Status: No mention of this horse as a Guineas prospect. In the aftermath of his Criterium victory, O'Brien commented: "Obviously he’s a Derby horse and we’ll start him in a Derby trial and all he should do is get better."

Nations Hope (20/1)

Ghaiyyath / Important Time (Oasis Dream)

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Form: 11 RPR: 90 Timeform: 96

Analysis: Has raced just twice, both times on Kempton Park's all-weather surface at the end of last year. Facile winner of maiden (5 lengths) over a mile in early November, before then repeating the feat (6 lengths) with a penalty in a novices race over the same trip. Difficult to evaluate the merit of that achievement (started 1/16 in a field of five), but analysis of the respective sectionals makes him much less exciting prospect than stablemate Talk of New York, who has likewise raced exclusively at Kempton. As an additional negative, one would imagine that this son of Ghaiyyath will prove best at distances in excess of a mile.

Status: We have no information about intentions for this horse.

Lifeplan (25/1)

Kodi Bear / A Taad Moody (Awtaad)

Trainer: Declan Carroll

Form: 11 RPR: 109 Timeform: 109p

Analysis: Unbeaten colt, having won a novice at Thirsk in July and converted that into victory in the G2 Gimcrack Stakes at York just a month later. Trainer Declan Carroll entertained the idea of running his son of Kodi Bear in the Middle Park but decided he needed more time, so put him away for the year after just the two runs.

Lifeplan is a difficult one to evaluate. On the one hand, the Gimcrack is not a race that tends to produce top milers (over 120 years the Gimcrack/2000 Guineas double has been done just twice, most recently by Rock of Gibraltar 25 years ago) and this colt looks a question mark on breeding. What's more, the form of last year's edition does not look good in the rear-view mirror: none of the seven horses who followed Lifeplan home have won a race since and several have regressed.

However, it would be foolish to rule out a G2 winner with an unbeaten record who still possesses any amount of potential upside after just two runs. All in all, the 25/1 feels fair.

Status: In September, Carroll commented as follows when deciding against a Middle Park bid: "He's fine but he's finished for the season. We'll put him away and train him for the Guineas next year." Carroll confirmed to The AntePoster on 24 February that Lifeplan will get a Guineas entry with the Craven as a possible trial, but pointed out that he would have French and Irish Guineas entries too. Far from a certain participant at this stage.

Benvenuto Cellini (33/1)

Frankel / Newspaper of Record (Lope de Vega)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 2113 RPR: 109 Timeform: 109p

Analysis: Beaten 1.5 lengths by stablemate Dorset (who had already had a run under his belt) on debut at The Curragh in late June, before then winning a maiden at Killarney two weeks later. After a two-month break, thrashed three rivals by 5 lengths in a G2 on Irish Champions weekend (runner-up beaten only half the distance by Pierre Bonnard next time out), prompting his price for the Epsom Derby to be slashed. However, the son of Frankel could only finish third of five as 7/4 favourite in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster, more than three lengths behind stablemate Hawk Mountain. We find that defeat more than forgivable given that it came on heavy ground. On the other hand, there has been no mention of this horse as a Guineas prospect, and he strides like a middle-distance type not a miler. No antepost appeal despite his immense promise.

Status: There is no indication that this colt will start off his campaign with a Guineas. Tellingly, when the big French 1 entries were made 10 days ago, Benvenuto Cellini was entered in the Prix du Jockey Club (10.5 furlongs) and the Grand Prix de Paris (12 furlongs), but not the Prix d'Essai des Poulains over a mile. With 16 Ballydoyle colts entered for the latter, that omission speaks volumes.

Morris Dancer (33/1)

Palace Pier / Menuetto (Dubawi)

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Form: 7121 RPR: 106 Timeform: 105

Analysis: Ran twice in May last year: was well beaten (5 lengths) in a 6-furlong Newbury maiden won by Humidity (albeit little was expected of him at 25/1), but then got off the mark two weeks later upped to 7 furlongs as expected (7/4 favourite). After a break of two months ("had a bit of a niggle" per Gosden senior) this son of Palace Pier was next seen in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, where he came close to springing a shock win at 22/1 (beaten a short head by Zavateri, although that one was giving 3lb). The form of that race stands up well in hindsight. Morris Dancer then ran out a very easy winner of the listed Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury by four lengths, and while that was just a three-horse field, runner-up A Bit Of Spirit would go on to win the G3 Solario Stakes next time out from Humidity, among others.

For some reason, Morris Dancer was not seen on a racetrack again last year, despite having had entry for the Champagne Stakes (not taken up) and being mooted for (but then withdrawn from consideration for) the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf after a hold-up. Intriguing dark horse for the Guineas as he looks to be a colt with bundles of talent, so 33/1 still catches the eye.

Status: The stable has informed The AntePoster that Morris Dancer is likely to get a Guineas entry next week, probably with a trial beforehand, but as he is only just back in training a definitive decision is still some way away. Has the Irish 2000 Guineas entry.

Amadeus Mozart (33/1)

Wootton Bassett / Pendant (Galileo)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 1 RPR: 79 Timeform: 95p

Analysis: The darkest of dark horses on this list, having run just the once as a 2-year-old. That maiden race, run at The Curragh in early June over 7 furlongs, saw him justify favouritism (11/10) by edging out stablemate Dorset (5/1). With that horse beating Benvenuto Cellini on his next start and ending the season as Group 3 winner, it's clear that Amadeus Mozart is a horse of great potential, and from a stride standpoint a mile would appear ideal for him, despite dam-side stamina suggesting further would also be fine (trades at similar odds for the Epsom Derby).

However, to have his season truncated in June suggests that Amadeus Mozart had issues, and it would be a major surprise if Aidan O'Brien were to throw this inexperienced son of Wootton Bassett right into the deep end of a Guineas, particularly the first one of the European season. Fascinating colt, but no antepost appeal at 33/1.

Status: We have no information about intentions for this horse. Not mentioned by Aidan O'Brien when discussing possible horses for the 2000 Guineas at the end of January.

Hankelow (33/1)

Night of Thunder / Sagaciously (Lawman)

Trainer: Karl Burke

Form: 121 RPR: 106 Timeform: 109P

Analysis: Won a novice stakes race on debut over 7 furlongs at York in June. Did not then run again until the St Leger meeting at Doncaster, where he was nosed out on the line by Avicenna (Goldophin, Varian) in the listed Flying Scotsman (winner unbeaten, not seen since). His final 2yo start came over the Rowley Mile in October, where he made all in the Autumn Stakes and won by 1.5 lengths from Al Zanati (would win a G3 at Chantilly next time out).

All in all, this colt is talented but so far some way short of 2yo form that would make him a credible threat to win the first Group 1 of the Classic generation. He will therefore need to have made significant progress over the winter for this top trainer. And as Hankelow's participation appears to be somewhat ground-dependent (see below), he does not feel overpriced at 33/1 as things stand.

Status: After the Autumn Stakes win, Burke commented: "He's a good horse. Whether he is quick enough for a Guineas or whether we step up to a mile and a quarter – we have plenty of time to think about that." Fast forward a few months, and Burke informed the AntePoster on 24 February that the Guineas is the target. At the same time, he warned that his charge would not be risked on fast ground.

Charles Darwin (33/1)

No Nay Never/Muirin (Born To Sea)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 4111 RPR: 109 Timeform: 109p

Analysis: Looked one of the most exciting 2yos anywhere in Europe last year after racking up three impressive wins after finishing 4th at odds of 4/6 on his debut over 5 furlongs in April. The first victory came at Navan, (maiden, 6 furlongs, won by 5.5 lengths), the second at Naas three weeks later (5 furlongs, 3.5 lengths), while the third victory was the most taking of all: he ran out an easy winner of the G2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot (2.25 lengths from Wise Approach, who would go on to be beaten just 0.5 lengths in the G1 Prix Morny and then win the G1 Middle Park).

This is clearly a monstrously talented colt, but neither the outcome of his 2yo campaign (ended in June due an issue of some sort) nor his breeding suggests he has any real chance of being directed to Newmarket on the first Saturday in May. Dreadful antepost bet at 33/1.

Status: Was not mentioned by O'Brien in a press conference in late January. Given the issue he had last summer that ended his 2-year-old campaign, he cannot be considered a betting prospect for any race without further newsflow.

Item (33/1)

Frankel / Capla Temptress (Lope de Vega)

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Form: 11 RPR: 86 Timeform: 93P

Analysis: Just the two starts as a 2-year-old for this Juddmonte-bred, and both were easy wins by 3.5 lengths. The first was a win in early September over 7 furlongs on the all-weather track at Kempton Park from Godolphin's Devon Island, who is now rated more than 20lb higher following a successful dirt campaign in Meydan over the winter (bred for that). The second came just over three weeks later in a novice stakes race at Bath, where he was giving weight to all but runner-up Blue Courvoisier (only horse to finish close, has not raced since). Was scheduled to race in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster a month later, but connections decided to spare him a heavy-ground experience.

With a campaign limited to a maiden and novice race, Item inevitably ranks very low in this list in terms of bare ratings. On the other hand, his latent talent was clearly reflected in the short price at which he was trading in the G1 Futurity before his ground-related withdrawal, and the last few months have polished his form further.

One of the very few colts in the field who still fits the "could be anything" tag. Fascinating prospect, and one of the few outsiders whose price (33/1) would look very appealing if definitely targeting the race. However...

Status: Andrew Balding informed The AntePoster on 23 February that he is undecided on whether Item will be entered for the Guineas at this stage. One to watch closely.

Golden View (33/1)

Dubawi / Golden Rose (Sea The Stars)

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Form: 1 RPR: 92 Timeform: 92P

Analysis: The next of Golophin/Appleby's once-raced colts who are prominent in the antepost Guineas betting. This son of Dubawi was likewise pointed to Kempton's all-weather track for his sole start, in this case just before Christmas. Won a novice stakes over seven furlongs from Roger Varian Aqpan (who had also finished runner-up on his only other start, see Hidden Force below), the pair many lengths clear of the rest of the field. In contrast to Talk of New York, however, there was nothing impressive about this performance on the clock, and with no horse in that field having won a race since it's difficult to rate this one any higher than the bare form. Which in the context of the 2000 Guineas is nowhere near good enough.

Status: We have no information about intentions for this horse. The next choice of race will tell us more about this completely unexposed type.

Palladas (33/1)

Lope de Vega / Isabella (Galileo)

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Form: 1 RPR: 87 Timeform: 90P

Analysis: Yet another Godolphin colt from the Appleby yard to have made just one lifetime start on Kempton's all-weather surface. This Lope de Vega colt did not appear until the end of January this year, but was clearly thought to be smart as he started 6/5 favourite in a field of 11 and duly got the job done by almost three lengths, with another two lengths back to the 3rd.

On the negative side, it was only a Class 4 maiden race and the final time was glacially slow, both in comparison with the Kempton debuts of stablemates Talk of New York/Hope's Nation and in comparison with other races on the card. On a more positive note, Palladas scythed his way to the front slowly run race and surged clear, posting very impressive sectional splits for the the last two furlongs of the race. What's more, this race now has some substance to it, with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th home all winning on their next starts.

All in all, this colt deserves to be put in the "could be anything" drawer for now, and 33/1 feels about right.

Status: We await news of where this exciting colt heads next.

Wild Desert (33/1)

Too Darn Hot / Winters Moon (New Approach)

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Form: 1232 RPR: 105 Timeform: 103

Analysis: Eye-catching, wide-margin winner on debut in May (Haydock, 7 furlongs), and started as odds-on favourite (30/100) on his next start in a novice race at Newmarket (again 7 furlongs), where he found himself short of room as the race began in earnest and had to give second best to stablemate Pacific Avenue (was receiving 6lb). Then finished third behind another stablemate (Saba Desert) and Ballydoyle's Italy in the G2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket's July Meeting over the same trip (form looks decent, Italy would be beaten not far by Zavateri on his next two starts, 4th placed Venetian Lace would finish second to Precise in G1 Fillies Mile). On his final start, the G1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine in September, this son of Too Darn Hot broke slowly and raced keenly but still closed well, ultimately failing to win by just a head (started 33/20 favourite).

Wild Desert's body of form looks solid but no more, and to our eyes he will need to have improved significantly over the winter to challenge for honours in this field. Looks more like a prospect for overseas raids in North America. As we doubt he will make Appleby's 2000 Guineas squad, the 33/1 does not appeal.

Status: No newsflow on this horse since his removal from consideration for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at the back-end of last year.

Accredit (33/1)

Dubawi / Entitle (Dansili)

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden

Form: 311 RPR: 93 Timeform: 102p

Analysis: Clearly considered talented prior to debut as was sent off at 30/100 for a 7-furlong maiden race at Sandown in late August (soft). but could only finish third. Made no mistake upped to a mile (again soft) at the same track 19 days later, albeit only beating two rivals (the only horse to finish close, Plan C, has not run back since). His third and final start at Haydock (mile, good to soft) saw him make all and take apart a novice field (with 7lb penalty), with the runner-up 11 lengths plus in his wake. That runner-up has shown improvement since. The race was 2.5 seconds slower than the other contest over a mile on the Haydock card (albeit that was a large field of decent older handicappers).

Clearly has bundles of talent but among the lowest on ratings in this field, so it feels like bookmakers are running scared of connections (Juddmonte-bred, Gosden-trained) at 33/1. What's more, for the Gosdens to throw a horse with no stakes experience into an early-season Guineas campaign would be a little out of character and he appears to be a doubtful entrant (see below), so he makes no betting appeal at all.

Status: The stable has informed The AntePoster that Accredit is likely to stretch out and be targeted at something like the Dante, rather than target the 2000 Guineas.

Hidden Force (33/1)

Frankel / Winter Lightning (Shamardal)

Trainer: Charlie Appleby

Form: 1 RPR: 94 Timeform: 96p

Analysis: Yet another once-raced Godolphin maiden on Appleby's go-to track of Kempton Park. The maiden race in question was run on 1 December over 7 furlongs and saw this Frankel colt win by just under 2 lengths. The runner-up was Aqpan, a horse of Roger Varian that would finish more or less the same distance behind Godolphin juvenile Golden View (see above) just 16 days later over the same C&D. That race was significantly faster, so this colt does not scream to be backed at 33/1, for all that any amount of improvement is possible. However, his next engagement, again at Kempton (see below), is eye-catching.

Status: Hidden Force runs at Kempton Park on 25 February (day of publication) in a conditions race that Notable Speech used in his run-up to Guineas glory in 2024.

Zavateri (33/1)

Without Parole / Zeroua (Siyouni)

Trainer: Eve Johnson Houghton

Form: 11114 RPR: 116 Timeform: 114

Analysis: One of the stories of the 2024 flat season. Won on debut in June, followed up with a stylish win in the G2 July Stakes at Newmarket, doubled his G2 tally by winning the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood later that month, and made it four on the bounce by seeing off Coventry winner and Prix Morny runner-up Gstaad in the G1 National Stakes at The Curragh in mid-September. On the back of that impressive slew of victories, Zavateri headed to the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket in mid-October as the highest-rated 2-year-old colt in Europe. However, the undulations of the Rowley Mile proved his undoing in that race, as he looked all at sea heading into the dip and was visibly awkward as he tried to find an effective racing rhythm in the last couple of furlongs. To finished 4th of 9, beaten little more than three lengths, looks fairly creditable under the circumstances.

On his overall body of form, this son of Without Parole was close to top of the pile last year. The problem is that the first Classic in May is held over the Rowley Mile, the exact same track that proved so difficult for this exciting colt in the Dewhurst four months ago. In our view, however, that question mark is more than built into the price: 33/1 looks much too big.

Status: The stable still entertains hopes of glory at Newmarket in May. Johnson Houghton immediately after the Dewhurst: "He possibly didn’t handle the track, but he’s going to have to learn to handle it if he’s going to come back here for the Guineas – that is still the dream over the winter." The trainer confirmed to The AntePoster on 24 February that the Guineas is indeed still the plan; no decision has been made yet on whether Zavateri will take in a trial or not.

Raaheeb (33/1)

Sea The Stars / Aghareed (Kingmambo)

Trainer: Owen Burrows

Form: 1 RPR: 85 Timeform: 90p

Analysis: Had just the one run as a 2-year-old, running out a ready winner of a soft-ground maiden race at Ascot. With the second and third horse home (the only rivals to have finished anywhere near Raaheeb) not having run since, it is impossible to establish what that form is worth, but as a full brother to two outstanding horses (Baaeed and Hukum) and under the care of one of the best trainers in the land this colt has to be taken seriously.

Even though Raaheeb has the lowest rating in this list, he would still catch the eye if entered in a Guineas trial. However, our information (see below) is that he will bypass the Guineas, so no price is a good price on this colt.

Status: On February 24 Owen Burrows informed The AntePoster that Raaheeb would not be trained for the Guineas, as he is viewed as more of a Derby type.

Humidity (50/1)

Ulysses / Sultry (Pivotal)

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Form: 11722 RPR: 108 Timeform: 108

Analysis: Won over 6 furlongs on debut in May, then built on that to capture the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Took a backward step in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood won by Zavateri, taking the lead a furlong out but fading into 7th. Just lost out in a four-way finish to the G3 Solario Stakes in September, but probably ran the best race of his season on his final start in the Royal Lodge later that month (the C&D of the 2000 Guineas), leading for much of the race and keeping on gamely when headed by Bow Echo in the final furlong (but finished ahead of Action, who would go on to finish 2nd in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster). Was then mooted for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf but never made the plane.

Humidity had an admirable campaign with just the one real blemish, but it's difficult to avoid the conclusion that he was short of top class as a 2-year-old. As a son of Ulysses, it also looks likely that he will be suited by distances in excess of a mile this season. All that said, 50/1 is not an ungenerous reflection of his overall profile if connections put him on a Guineas pathway. However, that has yet to be decided (see below).

Status: In the aftermath of the Chesham Stakes Balding ventured the thought that Humidity "could be a Guineas horse". In the aftermath of the Royal Lodge he opined that he was a "high-class horse [who] will keep on improving physically." However, on 24 February he informed The AntePoster that a Guineas decision for the Wathnan-owned colt had not yet been made.

Dorset (50/1)

Wootton Bassett / Snowflakes (Galileo)

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien

Form: 215411 RPR: 104 Timeform: 107

Analysis: Another Ballydoyle colt to have been given a full, searching campaign. This son of Wootton Bassett was second to Amadeus Mozart on debut, beat Benvenuto Cellini on his next start, and was duly selected as the stable's representative for the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. Here he started 13/8 favourite but was keen and faded in the final furlong (5th, beaten just under 3 lengths by winner Zavateri). He was beaten much further by that rival in the G1 National Stakes on his fourth start, but was not helped by colliding with stablemate Gstaad out of the gate and then being rushed to the lead, again demonstrating keenness.

Dorset registered back-to-back wins to close out his season, firstly in the Goffs Million at the Curragh (upsetting hot favourite Composing from the same stable) and then in the G3 Killavullan Stakes at Leopardtown (from another favoured stablemate, Daytona).

We doubt very much this one will be pointed to the Guineas other than in the capacity as pacemaker (a role he appears to have been assigned in the National Stakes). He's decent but way below top class, and makes much less appeal than the other 50/1 shots on this list.

Status: Not mentioned by Aidan O'Brien at the end-of-January press conference, and most unlikely to run at Newmarket on his own merits.