2000 Guineas special – Aidan O’Brien’s record and 2025 squad

The Grand National is in the rear-view mirror, and the early declarations for the Greenham Stakes are in – the Classic season is truly upon us now. With less than a month until the 217th running of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, The AntePoster has taken the time to analyse the eight entries still in the race for Aidan O’Brien, who heads up the pre-eminent flat racing stable in the British Isles.

But before getting into the form – and the all-important newsflow – of Ballydoyle’s squad for 2025, we have ventured a deep dive into Aidan O’Brien’s record in this race since his first foray across the Irish Sea at the end of the last millennium, with a view to identifying any findings that should be factored into the antepost punter’s thinking as we approach the first Classic of the 2025 season.

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Backed by the might of Coolmore and “The Lads” (John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith), Aidan O’Brien has taken ten 2,000 Guineas trophies back to County Tipperary over the last quarter of a century or so. It’s a stunning record, for all that an endless debate might be had about what level of success might be expected given the firepower at his disposal as custodian of some of the world’s finest bloodstock.

So how have his runners fared from a betting perspective? First things first: Backing the maestro of Ballydoyle in the British 2,000 Guineas blindly would not have brought you a profit. A pound to win on every horse entered by O’Brien in the race (a wagering pot of £61) would have returned just £57.37 – not a disastrous outcome, but a loss of 6% nonetheless.

By contrast, rigidly backing the Ballydoyle first string and no other horse from the stable would have turned out a decent strategy, returning £40.87 from a stake total of £27, or a healthy profit of 51%. That’s a decent return – although it should be noted that the profit on this approach is almost entirely attributable to Henrythenavigator being sent off at 11/1 for the 2008 edition of the race. With this in mind, punters would perhaps do well not to put too much faith in datasets of this kind. Not least as...

...those who only backed the stable no. 1 when it was favourite would not have fared well. Aidan O’Brien has sent out the shortest-priced runner on no less than 15 occasions and this total stake pot of £15 would have returned £12.87, or a loss of more than 14%. Particularly striking in this context is the large number of “good things” who failed to do the business at a prohibitively short price, most notably: Hawk Wing in 2002 (6/4); One Cool Cat in 2004 (15/8); Saint Nicholas Abbey in 2010 (1/1): Air Force Blue in 2011 (4/5); Auguste Rodin in 2023 (13/8); City of Troy in 2024 (4-6, the shortest price of any Ballydoyle runner in the race) In other words, while the “first string” betting approach would have been vindicated, a focus on hotpots would not. Indeed, it would not be stretching things to say that more fancied a Ballydoyle first string has been for the English Guineas, the less likely it is to have delivered. Food for thought.

"STN" – the modus operandi

In contrast to his preparations for the middle-distance Classics of the UK flat racing season, and far more so than for the 1,000 Guineas for the fillies’ race at Newmarket on the same weekend, Aidan O’Brien’s approach to the colt’s Classic in early May is overwhelmingly to bring them in fresh without a run. No less than 51 runners – and every single one of his ten winners – have turned up at HQ on the first Saturday in May without a prep run that season. Of those that did not, four were extreme outsiders and need no listing here* (reader question 1: one of these was the longest-priced Ballydoyle runner ever at 250-1 in 2020. What was he called? Answer at the end of this article). The other quartet reads as follows: Giant’s Causeway (2nd of 27 in 2000; one prep run at the Curragh); Tomahawk (7th of 20 in 2023; two preps runs in Ireland and France); Lancaster Bomber (4th of 14 in 2017; one run on dirt in Meydan); Gustav Klimt (6th of 14; one prep run at Leopardstown)

Interestingly, Aidan O’Brien commented in the Racing Post stable tour that he regretted the decision to run Giant’s Causeway in the Gladness Stakes as a prep run as he felt it had bottomed that horse for the subsequent English and Irish Guineas. That’s a line of reasoning that slightly defies logic – given that the “Iron Horse” would go on to run another seven times that season, bagging five Group 1s and finishing second by just a neck in a Breeder’s Cup Classic – but perhaps this episode, as much as anything else, explains why Ballydoyle has largely stuck to the “Straight To Newmarket” (STN) principle ever since.

Either way, STN appears to have served O’Brien extremely well on the Rowley Mile, particularly when his Guineas record is considered in its entirety. The great conundrum is what to read into his failure to land the race in the last five years, despite fielding ten STN runners and two very short favourites. What should one read into that?

Downturn starkly apparent in a linear look

From left to right, here are the top finishing positions of the best-performing Ballydoyle runner over the years, starting in 1998 (Ballydoyle’s first win with King of Kings) and ending in 2024 (City of Troy fiasco). The winning years are highlighted in bold:

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Striking here are the clusters of years in which Aidan O’Brien has provided the winner. 2005-2008 bought a haul of three Guineas in just four years (Footstepsinthesand, George Washington and Henrythenavigator) in what was clearly a golden period. A similar cluster of victories is evident over the timeframe of 2015-2019, with Ballydoyle fielding four winners in five years. (Gleneagles, Churchill, Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia). Relatively isolated wins for Rock of Gibraltar (2002) and Camelot (2012) prevented a prolonged drought during the intervening periods, with the result that between 1998 and 2022 O’Brien only once had to wait three years between drinks at the Newmarket Guineas well. And that particular three-year spell (2009-2011) coincided with horses by the name of Sea The Stars and Frankel.

Given this pattern of consistency, the downturn over the last five years is truly striking. Moreover, there have been three total blowouts since Magna Grecia’s win. While Wichita did finish second in 2020 – an unusual Guineas, in that it was delayed until June against a backdrop of pandemic – and Luxembourg took third in 2022, the other three Guineas in this time series have been shockers for O’Brien. In 2021, not one of the Ballydoyle trio** (reader question 2: can you name any of the three? See below article for answer) was able to make the top half of the 14-horse field, and while that might be put down to a particularly poor crop that year, the same emphatically cannot be said about the last two runnings. Both Auguste Rodin (13/8) and Little Big Bear (5/1) were hugely popular in the market when they flopped horribly in 2023 (finishing 12th and 14th of 14 respectively), while City of Troy’s odds-on disaster last year (9th of 11) at an eye-popping 4/6 sits even fresher in the memory.

Downward trajectory or reversion to the mean?

Given all the variables that can explain a horse’s failure to perform to expectations on any given day and the impossibility of analysing those variables with any accuracy, it would be absurd to proclaim a lasting and irreversible decline in Ballydoyle’s 2,000 Guineas fortunes on the basis of just five years. Rodin, the Bear and Troy all had their “excuses” on the first Saturday in May, although it might be observed that an excuse typically is trotted out when a fancied horse from this yard gets beaten. Either way, hindsight may well show that the last few years were just a bout of negative volatility in an otherwise continuing trend, and that a reversion to the winning norm – at some point in the near future – was inevitable for this powerful bloodstock operation and its master trainer. Not least as the recent loss of Galileo (responsible for just two O’Brien wins at Newmarket) poses a greater obstacle to The Lads’ ongoing Derby ambitions than it does for their continued success in the Guineas. That said, with two favourites having been not just beaten but having finished “out with the washing” in the last two runnings, some caution over wagering on their runners this year would appear only sensible, not least with a major doubt having appeared over this year’s “chosen one”. So who are this year’s Ballydoyle entries, and what should we make of their form and the newsflow over their likelihood of lining up in the gate? Let’s take them in betting order (at the time of writing).

Newmarket’s 2000 Guineas – Ballydoyle entries for 2025

The following horse summaries include best price at time of writing, form figures to date, and both Racing Post Ratings (RPRs) and Official Ratings (ORs).

Twain (11/2) Wootton Bassett – Wading (Montjeu)

11-

RPR 112; OR 113 Form Has had just the two runs, eight days apart last October. The maiden win clearly took everyone by surprise as Twain was allowed to start at 28-1 but he made all to win by six lengths, despite showing obvious signs of greenness. Was then thrown straight into Group 1 company (Criterium International at Saint-Cloud), where he hung markedly but ran out a ready winner from stablemate Mount Kilimanjaro.  It should be noted that both those wins were on soft ground, which means he has questions to answer in the event of faster ground on 7 May. Relevant newsflow “In the mix for the 2,000 Guineas…we’ll get a clearer idea of specific plans in the weeks ahead” (ATR stable tour, 21 March). “He could start in the Guineas but it seems like he'll also get a mile and a quarter well and, if he's good over that distance, he could get the Derby trip” (Racing Post stable tour, 7 April). Summary While O’Brien’s comments taken on their own hardly make Twain cast-iron material for a Newmarket start, the related comments on stablemates being potentially directed elsewhere (see Expanded below) point to Twain being the stable’s no. 1 candidate for the first Saturday in May as things stand. The AntePoster finds this all rather surprising, as this colt smells of success as a middle-distance type at three on various metrics (Montjeu on the dam side, his win at Saint-Cloud over an extremely testing mile on heavy ground at two, his big-race entries…), while his form (RPRs and ORs) looks the least convincing of the stable’s big guns. Either way, if he turns up at Newmarket, he appears almost certain to do be an “STN” case, i.e. heading there fresh without a prep run.

Expanded (12/1)

Wootton Bassett – Jigsaw (Galileo)

11-

RPR 113; OR 118

Form

Clear similarities with Twain, as this colt too had just the two runs at the backend of last season, in his case just seven days apart. His maiden win was less visually impressive but the G1 performance a week later was much more so, despite not winning: Unlike Twain, who took in a G1 at Longchamp that looks very weak in hindsight (favourite Maranoa Charlie clearly underperforming on the day/ground), Expanded was flung straight into the deep end in the form of the G1 Dewhurst stakes as a substitute for The Lion In Winter. The performance was impressive – he was just a neck behind Shadow of Light (Godolphin’s top Guineas prospect) at the line, and ahead of the same stable’s Ancient Truth (injured and off the Guineas trail). That looks an altogether more solid piece of G1 form than Twain’s, with the added advantage of a Newmarket “sighter” and a proven ability to handle good going.

Relevant newsflow

“He’s a Guineas type of horse for sure… plans will start to come together in the next couple of weeks” (ATR stable tour, 21 March).

“He's being trained for Guineas weekend but he could go to the Curragh for the Tetrarch the day after the Guineas if he doesn't go to Newmarket. If Twain goes to Newmarket, [Expanded] might take the easier option at the Curragh” (Racing Post stable tour, 7 April).

Summary

On the basis of form alone Expanded looks an obvious candidate for a return to Newmarket, not least as the Dewhurst historically provides by far the best guide to Guineas form. However, his price has drifted strongly since the Racing Post stable tour remark above, with O’Brien very clearly stating that his Dewhurst runner-up might well skip a return to Newmarket. Although Ballydoyle plans are obviously not set in stone yet, Expanded would obviously be a high-risk antepost play at this point, despite otherwise having an attractive if unusual profile. Like Twain, it appears almost certainly that he will have no prep run before his seasonal debut on Guineas weekend, if indeed that is when we see him next. But at 36.0 on Betfair Exchange at the time of writing, an appearance there must be in the gravest of doubt.

Henri Matisse (16/1)

Wootton Bassett – Immortal Verse (Pivotal)

11251-1

RPR 118; OR 116

Form

Much more experienced than the stable’s first two in the betting and hasn’t done a lot wrong. The “2” in his form line came in the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh, when he loomed up looking like the winner only to wander around in the final furlong and lose by less than a length to Scorthy Champ (prominent in the Guineas betting at 8/1), Ryan Moore observing that his colt “ran around and hung both ways”. The “5” comes from the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere on Arc day, in which he started 13/10 favourite only to fade in the last half furlong on the soft going. However, his 2-year-old season then ended in a blaze of glory at Del Mar in November, where following a bad start in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf he flew home to win impressively on fast ground. Had a decent prep fun to blow away the cobwebs at Leopardstown in late March, winning a G3 over seven furlongs when looking most unlikely to prevail as they turned for home.

Relevant newsflow

“We see him as a miler that will be best on firmer ground. He has loads of pace and is an obvious one for a Guineas. Plans will start to come together with him in the coming weeks” (ATR stable tour, 21 March).

“What he did there is a very difficult thing to do, coming from a bad draw and a long way back and he still got there easily. I don’t think Ryan hit him and he’s a horse with a lot of ability. A very good mover, we wouldn’t be in a rush to go on soft ground with him again” (Sporting Life stable tour, 25 March).

“He won at the Breeders' Cup last year and did well to win at Leopardstown first time out this year as it was a good gallop and Ryan said he'd definitely be more comfortable going up to a mile. You'd have to be happy with that performance and he'll improve plenty. He's obviously very smart and does quicken very well” (Racing Post stable tour, 7 April).

Summary

Both classy and experienced, Henri Matisse is the most “unreadable” one as far as stable intentions go at the moment – the newsflow began with the likelihood of “a Guineas” but without stating which, whereas O’Brien’s most recent remarks lacked any reference to a specific target. With a miler’s pedigree through and through, he would look to be a strong candidate for this race – particularly if encountering good ground – but the latest stable tour (Racing Post, see below) contained no newsflow to the effect that Newmarket is the plan. Given the trainer’s stated preference for better going, circling the Poule d'Essai des Poulains in France hardly looks like the most expedient option, yet sending Henri Matisse to Newmarket after a prep run would be a break from the trainer’s modus operandi, while running him in March if the aim is to wait for the Irish 2,000 Guineas eight weeks later in May would be a headscratcher. Quite the mystery. But The AntePoster likes him a lot if he gets the green light, for all that he doesn’t tick the “STN” box. Quoted at 28.0 on Betfair at the time of writing.

The Lion in Winter (25/1)

Sea The Stars – What A Home (Lope de Vega)

11-

RPR 116 OR 118

Form

Very taking winner of a 7-furlong maiden on debut in July when second string to the same stable’s Ides of March, seemingly being niggled at when still half a mile from home but found plenty in response to Wayne Lordan’s urgings and was never better than the finish (“won going away”). Upped to G3 level for what looked like a strong running of the Acomb Stakes at York in August, disputing the lead from an early stage and demonstrating plenty of stamina late to beat Wimbledon Hawkeye by just under two lengths, with Godolphin’s classy Ruling Court (even money favourite) back in third, the three well clear of the remainder. Was set to represent the stable as a short-priced favourite for the Dewhurst Stakes in September but missed that gig due to a setback.

Relevant newsflow

“He had an away day at the Curragh earlier in the week and all went smoothly. We’ll get an idea of how much that has brought him along in the coming days and plans will soon start to come together with him, but he’s an obvious candidate for the 2000 Guineas” (ATR stable tour, 21 March).

“He’s in good shape but took a little time to come right so he’s a little behind the others. He was at the Curragh last weekend and went well, the work was easy what he did. Whether he’ll make it in time for the Guineas I’m not sure, we’ll know in the next week or so” (Sporting Life stable tour, 25 March).

“He’s very well but just carrying plenty of condition, so he probably won't make Newmarket. He might make the Irish Guineas and we'll have a look at the Dante as well” (Racing Post stable tour, 7 April).

Summary

Shockwaves reverberated through the betting markets when the confidence exuded in the first Ballydoyle stable tour (ATR) had evaporated just four days later (Sporting Life) as O’Brien announced his leading light was a doubt to make the race, a concern that he reiterated two weeks later in the Racing Post. The Betfair Exchange price of 75.0 at the time of writing would clearly suggest that his chances of appearing at Newmarket are extremely remote. The AntePoster is rather saddened by this, and not just from the purist perspective of wanting the best horses to make the race, but also because The Lion In Winter looked a play-against from a betting perspective – getting his top Derby prospect to peak on the first Saturday in May is not something Aidan O’Brien has done with great success over the years.

Camille Pissarro (40/1)

Wootton Bassett – Entreat (Pivotal)

1202621-2

RPR 116 OR 118

Form

Had an extraordinarily busy juvenile season, starting promisingly enough to be made favourite for the Coventry Stakes at Ascot but would ultimately only finish mid-pack in that contest. Disappointed again as favourite in the Gimcrack at York, then yet again as he failed to justify favouritism in a sales race in Doncaster. However, the move up to seven furlongs on soft ground for the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp on Arc day proved the making of him, as he sat off the pace before staying on relentlessly to get the better of the classy Rashabar by a neck, Field of Gold and Henry Matisse being among those who finished behind. Couldn’t win the mixed-age Gladness Stakes on return to action in late March but only failed narrowly to get up, a performance that his trainer was “very happy with” under his Group 1 penalty. Should come on from that, so obviously needs to be taken seriously wherever he’s next seen.

Relevant newsflow

“Stepping up to seven furlongs in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere was a help to him too and a mile will be no problem for him this year. He’s working this weekend and that will get us a step closer to knowing where he is likely to start off, but all the Group 1 options are open to him over a mile” (ATR stable tour, 21 March).

“He’s a fast horse, we think a mile is as far as he’s going to go and he’ll have to be ridden to get it…he’s a possible for the Guineas” (Sporting Life stable tour, 25 March).

“We were very happy with his run at the Curragh when second in the Gladness…the 2,000 Guineas is a possibility but, if Twain goes to Newmarket, this horse could go to the French Guineas” (Racing Post stable tour, 7 April).

Summary

The newsflow has shifted subtly, as a “possible” tilt at the Newmarket Guineas flagged up to the Sporting Life on 25 March appeared to have receded as possibility two weeks later (Racing Post) in favour of a trip to Longchamp instead. Given his G1 win there on truly soft ground in October that looks like the most obvious route to take, but in his stable tour interviews O’Brien has been at pains to stress that he thinks this colt wants a sound surface, which is historically less likely in the French capital. Another head-scratcher; 75.0 on Betfair at the time of writing.

Aftermath (50/1)

Justify – Flying (Galileo)

231-

RPR 100; OR 103

Form

Failed to win on debut but raised immediately to G2 level in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September. Finished third of five in that, then rounded off season with a facile 5-length victory back in maiden company. This son of Justify could well have more to give this season, but he’s on the easy list for now.

Relevant newsflow

“He won nicely at the Curragh last season and was back nearly ready to go but we had to give him another little break again. It will probably be mid-season before he's out again” (Racing Post stable tour, 7 April)

Summary

Had a setback, so this talented colt will not be seen on racetrack again until the summer.

Mount Kilimanjaro (80/1)

Siyouni – Decorating (Galileo)

5312-3

RPR 107 OR 109

Form

Faced some good horses as a juvenile: five lengths behind Scorthy Champ on debut, around the same behind Field of Gold in a valuable maiden at the July Meeting, won a valuable conditions race at Longchamp on Arc weekend in October (not much quality in behind), before recording his peak performance in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud three weeks later, finishing just a couple of lengths behind Twain. Very disappointing as 1/4 favourite at Dundalk on seasonal debut, beaten more than three lengths into third in a five-runner field.

Relevant newsflow

“He had some very good runs last season and won well in France before finishing second in the Group 1 at Saint-Cloud. We might run him in one of those trials at Chester. He was beaten at Dundalk on his return but we felt we might have started him a little too early. He looks like he'll get a mile and a quarter well and handles an ease in the ground (Racing Post stable tour, 7 April).

Summary

On all known form he hasn’t a prayer of troubling the judge on Guineas weekend at Newmarket, so any participation would presumably involve pace-making duties. However, as per O’Brien’s comments above he looks to be heading to a Derby trial next.

Serengeti (200/1)

Siyouni – Decorating (Galileo)

631-8

RPR 90 OR 94

Form

Took three attempts to land a maiden last year, finally doing so at Dundalk. Beaten 21 lengths on reappearance at Naas in late March.

Relevant newsflow

None.

Summary

Pace-making duties if he comes over at all.

Final observations

With The Lion In Winter almost certain to miss the 2000 Guineas on the 3rd of May, Aidan O’Brien only has four realistic candidates to choose from as he attempts to break a (by his standards) very long losing run in the race. Most interestingly, this quartet poses an astonishing “pedigree cluster risk”, as all four of these colts – Twain, Expanded, Henry Matisse, Camille Pissarro – are sons of Wootton Bassett, who has yet to sire a Guineas winner in any country. The newsflow to date would suggest that some juggling of this pack is a nigh certainty, with the logic (and the newsflow) suggesting that Camille Pissarro will be pointed to Longchamp for the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas), and the newsflow (but emphatically not the logic) indicating that Expanded may sidestep Newmarket too. With grave doubts over Twain’s claims to giving “The Lads” an eleventh trophy at HQ (not least as he has the weakest official form of any of the quartet), The AntePoster is most interested in Henri Matisse, particularly on decent ground, despite this colt not meeting the “STO” criterion and therefore deviating from the stable’s modus operandi of sending their best to Newmarket fresh. However, with no clear hints that the Rowley Mile is his intended next engagement this has to be watching game for now.

Answers to reader quiz questions above:

* New World Tapestry

** Battleground (9/2 favourite, finished 13th of 14), Wembley (13/2, finished 11th), Van Gogh (20-1, finished 8th)