1000 Guineas: Take stamina risk at 14/1 for filly with best form in race

This is a short flash article due to what we believe is a limited window of opportunity following today's newsflow.

In our 1000 Guineas preview (see here), our entry for Karl Burke's filly Venetian Sun contained the following observation based on our conversation with the master of Spigot Lodge:

"Karl Burke has informed The AntePoster that Venetian Sun will be targeted at the 1000 Guineas, but at the same time pointed out that her work over the next few weeks would tell him if this talented filly is a miler or a sprinter. A Guineas run is therefore not set in stone. Entered in the French 1000 Guineas too."

We therefore concluded the following regarding her betting appeal:

"On the balance of her form, Venetian Sun stands out as overpriced at 14/1, as her only defeat at The Curragh can be clearly marked up. However, she is not a bet at this stage as the mile remains a question mark even for her trainer (see below)."

It was therefore with great interest that we read today in the stable tour published today by At The Races that Burke has made his mind up: She is being targeted at the 1000 Guineas, and a racecourse gallop is the likelier option than a prep run.

In our view, 14/1 is much too big a price for this filly to prove victorious on the Rowley Mile on 3 May now that her target is clear. The case for backing her is threefold:

• We strongly believe Venetian Sun has the best single piece of juvenile form in the fillies division, courtesy of her beating of both Gstaad and Wise Approach (both subsequent G1 winners) in the Prix Morny on 24 August. In particular, we believe the ultra-reliable Gstaad boasts the strongest overall body of form of any juvenile colt last year, so this was just a sensational performance.

• The Curragh run that we believe can be "marked up" as per above was the G1 Moyglare Stud stakes, in which Venetian Sun was trapped with nowhere to go when the race developed in earnest – very cleverly boxed in by Precise's jockey Ronan Whelan who knew exactly who his main danger was. Stamina was not an issue in this race, her first try over 7 furlongs: watch how she closes when finally in the clear.

  
  

• Of the other three horses in the top of the betting, Diamond Necklace is surely headed to Paris, and True Love may not head to Newmarket either, as the Queen Mary winner has even greater stamina doubts than the selection. That leaves just Precise, who Burke is no doubt itching to have another crack at.

In summary, we want to take a win-only position now at 14/1. We think that's a very appealing price for the filly with the best piece of form on offer (without looking, can you name even three of the nine horses who finished adrift of Precise in the Fillies Mile?), and in the hands of one of the best trainers in the business. We can see her starting second favourite.

Antepost risk aside, anyone wagering on this filly should embrace the possibility – as accepted by Karl Burke himself – that Venetian Sun may not stay in the Guineas, her first attempt at a mile. With that in mind we are not recommending her each-way.

The 14/1 is only available with Bet365: when that goes, 12s would still be worth a dabble.

Recommendation: Back Venetian Sun (win only) at 14/1 with Bet365 to win the 1000 Guineas on Sunday 3 May. Generally available 12/1 is OK too as minimum.