Aidan O'Brien & the Coolmore interview: antepost implications

It's not often Ballydoyle release an official interview with trainer Aidan O'Brien. Yesterday's broadcast from the great man's living room (in remarkably large armchairs) was entitled "Irish Champions Festival Review with Aidan & Chris", but it was actually rather more than that.

Specifically, what was valuable to the long-range punter was that in each case the interviewer ("Chris") shifted the discussion from the Leopardstown/Curragh performance in question to the corresponding horse's possible next outings. And here there were plenty of nuggets for the antepost community to chew on.

Below we set out the key takeaways from this interview and (our interpretation of) the antepost implications. We break this list down by horse type:

Stayers

Scandinavia: In keeping with remarks made after the Irish St Leger win, AoB stressed again that "we'll probably finish him for the season", but would keep him in training "just in case the Prix du Cadran came up with nice ground" and (plain bizarrely)"just in case The Lads happened to be in Paris that weekend". Ascot (i.e. the Long Distance Cup) was mentioned fleetingly in a negative sense ("Usually when you get to Ascot the ground is usually heavy and tough...and we don't want to expose him to that") but without explicitly ruling that option out if the ground were OK. The Prix du Cadran is not priced up; Scandinavia is a singularly unappealing 7/4 for the Long Distance Cup.

Queenstown: Ambiguity here. This gelding was said to be pointed to the Cadran after the Irish St Leger, and was mentioned against in this context by AoB but only rather elliptically: When asked if both Scandinavia and Queenstown would go to the Cadran, after mentioning Scandinavia AoB added simply"...and Queenstown is very happy to do whatever Scandinavia wants really". While it's nice for listeners to know who is the boss when these two are asked to tuck into the same bale of hay, it's rather difficult for the antepost punter to pin down what this comment means in an antepost context. It seems reasonable to assume that Queenstown will go to France if Scandinavia doesn't, but whether the former would bypass the race (for the Long Distance Cup?) if Scandinavia goes to France or act as the latter's domestique/pacemaker in that eventuality is not so clear.

Jan Brueghel: All pretty clear here: the Long Distance Cup (for which he trades at 2/1 favourite) is evidently still the plan. "You couldn't say he wouldn't get two miles at Ascot... and if it came up soft that wouldn't be a problem for him."

Amelia Earhart: Another one where there appears to be clarity over the next race, with John Magnier's call to run her in the final English Classic last weekend not having changed the plan for her next outing: "She'll go to the fillies race on Arc weekend now". That would be the G1 Prix Royallieu over 14 furlongs on the Saturday (not priced up).

3yo Colts

Constitution River & Gstaad: Treated together because their racing plans are intertwined. It was indicated in a couple of interviews last Saturday that a drop to a mile for the QEII is being considered for the former, with the latter potentially being upped in trip to the Champion Stakes. That idea was now voiced again: "There's a chance that we have been doing the wrong thing with [Constitution River], and that he's a miler....and Gstaad could be the mile-and-a-quarter horse".

The switch would be quite the radical step, but as it is only under consideration the antepost situation for both these horses is something of a minefield for the punter. Most importantly, Constitution River first has to be definitively pointed to Ascot, which is step that has yet to be taken: "We just have to decide with him now: do we go to Ascot? And [then] which race do we go for?" The French Derby hero is a weak 10/1 for the Champion Stakes but is not quoted at all for the QEII (not entered, though you'd imagine The Lads will be able to cobble together the supplementary fee). By contrast, Gstaad is 8/1 for the QEII but over the last week has been backed into a best-price 20/1 for the Champion Stakes (but as short as 8/1 in places). All guesswork at this stage for both these colts.

Benvenuto Cellini: We found this section of the interview as informative as anything. Adding to the previously referenced excuse of the "tactical mess" of the Prix Niel ("the pacemaker went off... none of the others followed him"), AoB also suggested that Benny may have been suffering from the same low-level bug that has affected others in the yard: "He did come back and give a few coughs for three, four or five days after." That coughing has now "more or less cleared up" and "he should be fine for the Arc as long as the grass is fine, otherwise he'll wait for America." The antepost market has more or less written off this colt for the Arc (33/1), but with the weather set fair for the foreseeable future he look like an obvious one with plunge potential, for all that he's a risky play now.

Albert Einstein: Probably finished for the season, but will be brought back next year.

Arc fillies

Minnie Hauk: The maestro of Ballydoyle was predominantly bullish about this filly but with a bit of circumspection thrown in: "Minnie will probably go the Arc...she's stepped up lovely...it looks like she'll be the best she's been this year come Arc weekend....as long as she keeps going well, as long as she doesn't get a cough or any of that kind of stuff." With no ground doubts and no alternative race being considered (in contrast to Diamond Necklace, see below), Minnie Hauk (20/1) looks the most certain of the three Ballydoyle Arc contenders to enter the starting gates.

Diamond Necklace: Clearly being pointed to Paris in two weeks (also 20/1), but AoB was sitting firmly on the fence where the actual target race is concerned: "She'll have a choice to go to the fillies race over a mile and a quarter [Prix de l'Opera] or the Arc... so we'll see." Once again, he was once again keen to point out that Diamond Necklace might have been "a bit short" in the Prix Jean Romanet after backing up quickly after the Nassau.

Mile fillies

True Love: Was mentioned as a possible for the Sun Chariot, with AoB keen to point out that she may have had an excuse for the rather poor Matron Stakes performance (finished 6th): "She coughed when she came back...it seems to be disappearing...if we can get everything cleaned up and dried up it's possible [Sun Chariot]". It would be a bold antepost punter to wade in for that race with her health situation up in the air, although 20/1 would otherwise appear quite the price for an English Guineas winner who may have had a genuine excuse.

Precise: Another who AoB felt may not have been at her best in the Matron (5th). But whereas True Love came back coughing after the race, her stablemate "gave 15 or 20 coughs the next day". No target was mentioned for the latter, but the interviewer had started the discussion of this pair by asking about True Love for the Sun Chariot, whereas AoB moved from True Love straight to the coughing of Precise, so no target was ever raised by the interviewer for the latter. The Irish 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner is 10/1 for the Sun Chariot.

2yos

Great Barrier Reef: Appears to be clearly on track for the Middle Park next week, for which he is currently 9/4 favourite: "He will move up a good bit from that [his last-time-out run at The Curragh]". The race AoB was referring to is the G3 Round Tower Stakes on 29 August, which came after a ten-week break following his win in the Coventry Stakes.

Marco Polo: Is entered for a race this coming Monday but AoB was not ruling out a tilt at the Middle Park Stakes too with just a 5-day gap between the two races: "Marco Polo might go to Fairyhouse over 6 furlongs on the way...we'll see what'll happen." This colt is 16/1 for the Middle Park.

Darkness Falls: This one poses quite the conundrum. On the one hand with his profile (ran over 8 and 9 furlongs in his last two races) he would be logical fit for the G1 Futurity at Doncaster, but on the other Ballydoyle looks to have a weaker hand than normal heading into Newmarket's Dewhurst Stakes (at 7/1, Darkness falls is AoB's shortest-priced entrant, with Great Barrier Reef trading at 16/1). Accordingly, a drop in trip is clearly being considered: "Do we go to the Dewhurst or do we go the Racing Post Trophy [Futurity Stakes]... it's possible that he could go to the Dewhurst, it's possible that he could have enough pace for it." He was mentioned as as possible Triple Crown contender, so the Dewhurst would be an obvious place to test that his pace with the 2000 Guineas in mind.

Sun Goddess: The million-dollar question with this filly (does she back up in the Chevelely Park Stakes next Saturday, for which she shares 6/4 co-favouritism with Senorita Bonita?) was not answered clearly: "It's perfectly possible". Reading between the lines, it did sound like there was a desire to do it, and the stable does of course have recent form for wheeling out a crack filly for the Cheveley Park off short notice. But a firm decision was never likely to come before next week.