Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: Who's in, who's out, who's a maybe?

Just over ten days to go until many of the best middle-distance turf horses in training congregate in the south-west corner of the Bois de Boulogne.

We thought it would be useful to run quickly through the antepost betting market, in price order, giving our thoughts on the likelihood of each horse lining up, while in addition providing a quick line on their respective ground preferences. We've done this particularly in view of the unusually dry Paris autumn and the prospect of fast ground... but weather pictures can change dramatically this far out as we all know. Take nothing as gospel just yet.

We'll be recording an in-depth, horse-by-horse analysis on our Youtube channel at a later stage, so our comments below are strictly limited to likely participation and ground preferences.

Daryz (7/4): Nailed on to run bar a setback. The key seasonal target, and part of the reason for keeping the champ in training as a four-year-old.

Ground: Versatile. Might be vulnerable in the event of truly desperate ground, but that looks like the unlikeliest ground scenario at this stage. We dispute the idea put forward by various observers that fast ground is a concern: Both this season's Prix Foy and Prix Ganay wins were run on rattling fast ground (the latter was 3.0 on the penetrometer, freakishly low for Longchamp).

Maltese Cross (13/2): Nailed on to run bar a setback. The key end-of-season target after deciding to bypass the St Leger.

Ground: Versatile, but probably with a preference for faster going. Yet to suffer defeat on G/F, but clearly also handle some give underfoot as was second in the Derby on soft going.

Thundering On (15/2): Uncertain. Connections are also considering the Prix de l'Opera on Arc day, as well as Champions Day engagements at Ascot. The ground may well play a part in calculations.

Ground: Prefers cut underfoot? Not enough data for it to be cut and dried, but it will surely be at the forefront of connections' minds that this filly disappointed on the only occasion she has faced good-to-firm ground (Pretty Polly Stakes, only 4th as 11/10 favourite). By contrast, her Group 1 win (Oaks at Epsom) came on ground with plenty of moisture in it. That might be sufficient reason for O'Brien jr. to keep his powder dry for Champions Day 13 days later – where two options are on the table – if the weather picture doesn't change.

Kalpana (8/1): Increasingly certain. Racing manager Barry Mahon was pouring cold water on the Arc idea after the Yorkshire Oaks, referring to the Fillies & Mares race at Ascot. But since the disappointing run of (also Juddmonte-owned) stablemate Item in the Irish Champion Stakes), trainer Andrew Balding has said Kalpana is being prepared for the Arc.

Ground: Versatile. The narrative for much of this mare's career was "at her best with give in the ground", but connections have now accepted that she is a proper Group 1 performer on fast going too. Her last four finishing positions on G/F (per Timeform) read 2-1-2-1, and all of those were G1 races.

Varandir (16/1): Increasingly certain. Connections have the favourite Daryz of course, but the newsflow after the Niel was along the lines of "Why not?" and "Sometimes it's good to have more than one string to your bow". Moreover, we heard on a French podcast yesterday that Varandir has been confirmed, although we have not seen the direct newsflow ourselves.

Ground: Versatile based on his performances on the racecourse. Racing manager Nemone Routh has also expressed her view that he "goes on any ground".

Minnie Hauk (20/1): Highly likely. There's been a cough going round the yard, but all the AoB newsflow has been that the Arc is the plan.

Ground: Versatile. There was plenty of juice in the ground in Minnie Hauk's Arc second last year, while the second and third best runs on her CV (on the ratings at least) have been on very fast ground: (Prince of Wales 2026, Yorkshire Oaks 2025).

Diamond Necklace (20/1): Uncertain. She is also entered in the Prix de l'Opera, and Aidan O'Brien has said it is likely to be one or other. Our hunch is that the faster the ground, the more likely the Arc (she's never raced over 12 furlongs, so a dry forecast could be the conditions to make a first attempt at that more tempting), not least as Ballydoyle don't have an outstanding candidate for this year's edition of that far more prestigious race. But we're just theorising here. Also worth bearing in mind the coughing bug affecting the yard.

Ground: Versatile. Her two best runs this season (Prix de Diane, Nassau) have come on G/F going, and she is unbeaten on soft ground.

Sunly (20/1): Uncertain, though we would err on the side of "likely" despite this filly having entries in the Prix Royallieu (14f) and the Prix de l'Opera (10f) as alternatives on the same weekend. Graffard has indicated he would like to run her, and her form at 12 furlongs is very classy (ran Calandagan close in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, was a big eyecatching-catching third in the Vermeille after stumbling at the start and having to wait for a run). However, connections also have Kalpana so the temptation to split the pair up must be there.

Ground: Untested on truly testing going, absolutely fine on anything else.

Bay City Roller (25/1): Has this one drifted from "highly likely" to "probable" or even just "possible" as the Paris drought continues? The Arc has been the plan ever since mid-summer, but the one underfoot description connections don't want is very fast ground, and at the time of writing it looks as if that could well be what they're going to get. May well run anyway, but conversations will doubtless be had and it's not impossible they pivot towards Ascot.

Ground: He's a very good horse on fast ground – the Prix Foy second behind Daryz earlier this month was perfectly respectable – but he also grows a leg with cut underfoot, and the remarkably dry European summer and autumn is not working in this guy's favour. Connections will be desperate for the weather picture to change. That's not impossible.

Aventure (33/1): Very unlikely. Brilliant in the Jean Romanet, and connections think she has got faster as she has got older, so she's headed to the Opera per the newsflow. Her performances this season also point to ten furlongs being her bag now. However, she does still have the Arc entry.

Ground: A bit like Kalpana, a bit of juice underfoot appeared to be Aventure's most effective conditions when she was younger. But she's run very well on fast ground too, particularly this season.

Benvenuto Cellini (33/1): Bordering on the probable given the dry spell in Paris. "Arc if going is good" is the clear plan as indicated by Ballydoyle, and the weather forecast looks to be going this one's way at the time of writing. However, this colt has had a low-level coughing bug (may have affected his Prix Niel performance) so there's obvious non-runner risk here.

Ground: It's mildly surprising on breeding but the stable are clear this colt wants fast ground to be at his best and his performances over the last 18 months back that up (two biggest disappointments on testing ground).

Alam (33/1): Nailed on to run bar a setback. Pleased trainer Mikel Delzangles with a piece of work yesterday and is "ready to go".

Ground: Versatile from his CV, and per Delzangles: “I wouldn’t mind what the weather does, he’s won a Group Three on soft ground and has run very well on fast ground."

Saddadd (33/1): Very probable but with a slight question mark. Varian's comment directly after the Grosser Preis von Baden win was “If he stays healthy, we will now go to the Arc”, and that was followed up ten days later with the comment "Plan A is to run Saddadd in the Arc and we're looking forward to that and very excited to have the chance to run a horse like him in the race.". However, the words "Plan A" suggest to us that Plan B is not off the table, and it's not impossible that the ground issue (see below) might cause connections to switch targets to the Champion Stakes at Ascot 13 days later.

Ground: Ought to be considered versatile, as Saddadd has won on soft ground and back in May 2025 won a handicap on ground now classified as "firm" by Timeform. However, Varian has expressed his preference for a bit of ease underfoot for this horse before, and fast ground was used as a partial excuse for his rather disappointing run in the Eclipse in July.

Baroud (33/1): Highly unlikely despite his eye-catching rise in trajectory. André Fabre believes this son of Frankel is not ready for the step up to 12 furlongs at this stage of his career. 2027 might be another matter.

Ground: Handles fast, untested on softer.

Friendly Soul (40/1): Very difficult to call. Not entered in the Arc, but her win in the Prix Vermeille gave her a "golden ticket" into the race and connections have said it will be considered. However, this mare is also being considered for the Opera (former winner), which would be a much easier target (she would surely be among the first three in the betting). Just possible that fast ground might sway them in favour of a tilt at the big one, however.

Ground: Versatile, having won on both soft and good to firm. The ground on Vermeille day was rattling fast.

Constitution River (40/1): Extraordinarily unlikely that he will run here, with Aidan O'Brien having mooted the idea of dropping back to a mile in the aftermath of the Irish Champion Stakes defeat.

Ground: Irrelevant question as he surely won't run, but versatile.

.

Meisho Tabaru (40/1): Nailed on to run bar a setback. He arrived a few days ago, has settled in, and has had an initial gallop.

Ground: Versatile. He won his two Group 1s on ground with some dig in it ("good" and "yielding" respectively) but ran crack Japanese horse Croix du Nord to three quarters of a length in this year's Osaka Hai on good to firm.

Admire Terra (50/1): Nailed on to run bar a setback. Arrived from Japan with Meisho Tabaru and has settled in.

Ground: Versatile. Three of his wins have come on fast ground, three on good to soft.

Item (50/1): Very unlikely runner. Would take a complete change of heart on the part of connections after his no-show in Ireland. Might the sunny forecast prompt just that?

Ground: Preference for fast ground, does handle some give in the ground.

Pearled Majesty (66//1): Uncertain. He is entered in both the Arc and the Champion Stakes at Ascot 13 days later, and trainer (and part-owner) Mauricio Delcher Sanchez has made it clear that the former is not set in stone. "Everything will come down to the weather...if there's a bit of rain, he'll be in the starting gate. If not and the track is riding as fast as it did in the Prix Niel, we'll wait for the Champion Stakes".

Ground: Handles most ground, but the trainer's belief that fast ground dulls his effort would appear to be backed up by the fact that both his two runs on ground classed as "good to firm" by Timeform are the only races in which he has been defeated in his last six races.

Others

We are aware that the connections of Temapica (150/1), Bright Light (150/1), Arrow Eagle (150/1), and Chestnut Rocket (250/1) have expressed an interest in running. However, quite aside from the form mountain these horses have to climb to be competitive on all recent form, we believe they have all shown their best form with some (or plenty) of give in the ground. We therefore do not know if they will line up on Sunday week in the absence of meaningful rain. Meanwhile, Ballydoyle also has the likes of Hawk Mountain (100/1), Pierre Bonnard (100/1) and Montreal (150/1) engaged, and one of those lining up with pace-making duties is far from impossible.