Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint: Each-way pace plays at 12/1

[In contrast to the majority of our articles, the recommendations below involve no antepost, i.e. non-runner risk]

There is only a small data sample for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, which has only been in existence eight years. But with four of those runnings taken by the home team and four seized by the Europeans, it's probably fair to say that it would be unwise to slavishly default to either one side or the other side or another when analysing this race.

The Europeans – who field three quarters of the field – clearly have a really good one this year in Libertango, who is absolutely the right favourite. But we'd rather not back a 2yo sprint filly travelling three thousand miles in late autumn to race around a tight bend for the first time in her life at around the 6/4 mark (expressed as 3/2 stateside). She will also need work out a decent trip in this race.

Several of the other Europeans could run well, though almost none appeal as standout at the prices in this "away fixture", particularly the hold-up types. The exception would be the filly Moonrise at 12/1, who has drawn the rail (with no great speed in the stalls to the outside of her) and can enjoy the shortest path around Keeneland's sprint course.

The only off-the-board finish the five-race career of Andrew Balding's filly (and only defeat other than a ½-length second of 25 at Royal Ascot) was her front-running fourth in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time out. That G1 contest is clearly one of the strongest juvenile sprint races run in Europe this year, with Sun Goddess and Libertango filling the first two places. In the context of this race, that's a red-hot piece of form.

In that race over Newmarket's straight six furlongs, Moonrise set a pace fast enough to have the favourite working hard behind her as they entered the final stages. To finish a close-up fourth was still excellent run in our view: note that the Cheveley Park was run 0.84 seconds faster than the Middle Park Stakes run half an hour later (represented here by Force Noir and Hell Of A Spin).

For good measure, the cutback to 5.5 furlongs – for the first time in Moonrise's career – looks ideal, and it should be observed that this filly is unbeaten racing around a bend (two runs at Kempton, including a G3 win by almost three lengths).

But for all that she led last time, Moonrise isn't a need-the-lead type and will be happy sitting behind anything going faster at the furlong pole. Which she may well have to, as Harper's Corner is likely to adopt the front-running role in this race. We are surprised she is 12/1.

This filly, trained by Cathal Lynch, has lifetime figures of 1-1-2-2 and has only ever lost to top-draw competition: Summer Starlet (on the dirt) on her third start, who would be vying for favouritism in the BC Juvenile Fillies race earlier on the card, and Brickyard Belle, who looks almost certain to start second favourite for Friday's race.

Most observers would argue Brickyard Belle is the better horse, given the astonishing turn of foot she showed to overtake Harper's Corner in the last 50 yards of a sprint race at Belmont Park last time out. And so probably would we, all things being equal. But two things aren't equal here. One of those is of course their respective prices. But the other key factor is the distance – Brickyard Belle got up late to beat Harper's Corner in a race run over six furlongs, whereas the Juvenile Turf Sprint is half a furlong shorter. That's to the advantage of the vanquished filly.

As regards the quality of the race both those fillies exit (the G3 Matron Stakes), it's worth noting that this contest was run in a very fast time. Namely 1:08.26, or four-fifths of a second faster than the 1:09.06 recorded for the colts' equivalent at Belmont that same night (G3 Futurity Stakes, represented by Good To Be King here). That earned both US fillies a very high speed figure (90 Beyer), so Harper's Corner was hardly getting a soft lead out in front.

We'd rather a horse didn't drop out of the main field and allow Wesley Ward's speedster Ruiva in the race (first reserve), but even if the Ward filly does draw in we consider Harper's Corner ovepriced for both the upset win and a podium placing.

Recommendation: Back the following horses each-way on four-place terms for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Keeneland (1855 UK time, Friday 30 October):

Moonrise@12/1 with Bet365, The general 10/1 is tolerable as next best with the bookmakers paying four places.

Harper's Corner @12/1 with Bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, Paddy Power. The 14/1 with William Hill is an alternative play but entails three-place terms.