Arc de Triomphe antepost: Is Continuous about to make a splash?

Like many big races with full fields, last year’s Arc de Triomphe bears re-watching many times over. One of the most eye-catching runs was that of St Leger winner Continuous, who finished sixth – beaten just three lengths – after a compromised trip. Already a Classic winner, he went into almost every notebook as a top-class colt destined for big things in 2024.

It would be fair to say that the ink in those notebooks will have faded in many cases. As observed previously, Continuous may well have earned the accolade of “most withdrawn top-class horse in training” at the 48-hour stage this season. His presence has been tantalisingly dangled on multiple occasions, only to be snatched away.

We have seen him just twice since his fine run at Longchamp last October. In the first instance he turned up at the Group 2 Hardwicke stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Trainer Aidan O’Brien was at pains to trot out the usual mantra for his horses appearing after a long absence – “he’s just ready to start back”. Quite why some people felt this was a good opportunity to bet him into 13/8 favouritism is a mystery. Anyhow, he finished 5th of nine, beaten six lengths.

Perhaps something was amiss. For as it turned out, this prep run – if it can be described as such – was followed by a seven-week rest. In August he then had his sights lowered for the Royal Whip Stakes over 10 furlongs back in his native Ireland. Sent off at 4/7, he was expected to win this Group 3 contest at The Curragh with ease, but ultimately passed the post only half a length in front of his nearest pursuer.  This was not what the notebook scribblers were hoping for.

But was it better than it looked? In an excellent article written on the subject in the Irish Field, Angus McNae made the strong case that this visually unremarkable performance was actually a very impressive effort when taking into account sectional times, as the race effectively turned into a four-furlong sprint. Far from a favourable scenario for a soft-ground winner of the St Leger over half a mile further. Looking at both stride and cadence, while also observing that Continuous was the only horse to break 11 seconds for a furlong, McNae argued that this race pointed to a horse with a wicked turn of foot, which is most unusual in a stayer.

Continuous winning the St Leger at Doncaster last September / Edward Whitaker

Today it was confirmed that, instead of running in the Irish St Leger over 14 furlongs on Sunday (and having already been withdrawn from the Irish Champion Stakes over four furlongs shorter on Saturday), Continuous will head to Paris Longchamp on Sunday to run in the Prix Foy over 12 furlongs. If he is indeed back to his best – and given the stuttering season he has had, that’s perhaps not something we should take for granted – he should see off the opposition in this race comfortably.

And this is where antepost snipers might want to have two prices in their sights, as these will vanish in seconds if he bounces back to this best: the 25-1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) for the Arc de Triomphe, and the 20-1 (Unibet) for the Breeders Cup Turf. An obvious play would be to take both of those prices now. But with his return to his best form still not fully confirmed, the Ballydoyle yard having many candidates for those races, and his lineage making a trip to Japan later in the year an obvious play (indeed, this is where he was destined to go last year before injury struck), jumping the gun at this stage could come at quite a price.