Arc Weekend: Antepost takeaways for the remainder of the season

The first weekend of October was packed with Group 1 action in Europe. Time for a brief recap, or rather an analysis of what this means for antepost markets going forward. The order in which horses are mentioned in each race below reflects their finishing position.

Saturday 5 October

Prix Cadran: Kyprios remains the staying king, although his margin of victory was nothing like what he achieved in his astonishing performance in the same race in 2022. He will probably go to Ascot for the Long Distance Cup to finish his season, but that’s not 100% certain, hence he can still be bet at 10/11. Trueshan (12/1) will probably back up quickly in the same race and hope for deeper ground. Coltrane ran his best race of the season after a disappointing campaign but will surely need a dry spell to be competitive at Ascot, where he doesn’t have an entry anyhow. Double Major flopped badly, and it’s not clear if the extended trip was the only reason. All being well, perhaps he will take in another staying race in France later in the autumn.

Prix Dollar: Jayarebe confirmed that he can perform to a high level when the ground is not rattling fast. Connections are now intent on taking him to the Breeders Cup Turf, which will be a very different challenge, but with his running style he could take the field a long way, and the tight, quick Del Mar turf track gives him a chance of staying the extra two furlongs. Interesting at 16/1. Almaqam ran an excellent second, just failing to haul in the winner who was able to set leisurely fractions. No Champions Day entries, so presumably he won’t be seen until next season. Anmaat was bitterly disappointing, and there must be a question mark over him contesting Champion Stakes at Ascot (33/1), which was the original plan. First Look was even worse and has gone the wrong way since his impressive Prix du Jockey Club second.

Prix Wildenstein: A tale of two races, with the winner and second having come from well off the pace. Ramadan looked like he was struggling to keep up, but the overly fast gallop played into his hands as he finished strongly. Doubtful if he would have the pace for the QEII at Ascot, but he excels in ground softer than this, so would be an interesting outsider if connections were to supplement in the event of an imminent deluge (best race prior to this was on heavy ground over a mile). Andromede confirmed once again that she’s a classy mare, for all that she was favoured by the way things panned out. Alcantor looked very much like the best horse in this race, having kept right up with the pace that was much too fast. There is surely more to come from this son of New Bay, but it remains to be seen where he turns up next. Better ground suits.

Sun Chariot: Tamfana ran out a good winner, justifying the G1 hopes connections always held. Connections will surely go for the QEII at Ascot next (8/1), whereas the Breeders Cup has been ruled out. Inspiral ran second after her usual slow start, will now be retired. See The Fire was mildly disappointing in third having been backed heavily in the previous 48 hours; it remains to be seen if she will run again this season. Just possibly the owner may be tempted by the Champion Stakes, in which she is still entered. Elmalka may have wanted a quicker pace or better ground, possibly both. Interesting to see if connections roll the dice in the QEII (50/1), but that would likely require good weather in the run-up. Nashwa was disappointing, but that was an outcome flagged up by the trainer in advance on fitness grounds. She is entered at Ascot in both the QEII (33/1) and the Champion Stakes (66/1) but would have to come on a bundle to be competitive in either race.

Sunday 6 October:

Marcel Boussac: Vertical Blue shocked a packed Longchamp by taking down stablemate Zarigana at a huge price. The winner now has an all-expenses-paid trip to the Breeders Cup for the Juvenile Fillies Turf, but that would be on very different ground, and connections sounded lukewarm the next day. Zarigana ran a belter on ground that was probably softer than ideal, but is definitely finished for the season. Exactly was a real eyecatcher given that she did all the donkey work and was beaten only half a length. She continues to improve with every run and looks tailor-made for Del Mar, though Ballydoyle is juggling a whole pack of possibles for that. Simmering and Bedtime Story were both disappointing – the latter in particular has regressed with every run since her stunning win in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. It would be a surprise if either were to run again, though the former’s connections had previously mentioned going to the Breeders Cup.

Jean-Luc Lagardere: Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Wootton Bassett colt Camille Pissarro saw out this race well on deteriorating ground. He’s apparently set to be rested for the season now. Rashabar ran another excellent race and is now probably finished for the season. One of the top juveniles in Europe after an outstanding campaign on all types of ground, he is likely to come back to Longchamp for the French 2000 Guineas for the same trainer who campaigned Isaac Shelby. Antepost offers for races eight months away tend to be unattractive generally, but 10/1 looks quite fair in this instance. Misunderstood surely wasn’t favoured by having led from the front, and his run can be marked up. Future plans are unclear, but he too will likely have a French classic campaign. Field of Gold never properly settled. He’s probably done for the season but shouldn’t be written off after a “gassy” run on ground that was patently too soft. Indeed, one Racing Post tipster put him up as a bet for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket at 40-1 on the back of this run. Henry Matisse disappointed in blinkers after running an erratic course at the Curragh. Aidan O’Brien also blamed an early bump for his indifferent run. Not clear where he goes now.

Abbaye: Marakova, who was running the last race of her career, ultimately ran out a relatively comfortable winner on ground that was perfect for her but less ideal for the second and third. That pair, Bradsell and Believing, finished a place apart for the third race running and are both admirably consistent sprinters. The former would probably have preferred it a bit firmer, whereas the latter ideally wants a stiffer test than Longchamp’s “short” five furlongs. Bradsell is now heading to Del Mar for the Breeders Cup Sprint, where he will be the main challenger to the monstrous US turf sprinter Cogburn, who is arguably the best horse in the US right now. Given that rival, he’ll likely be a bigger price on the US pools than the 7/2 now available. Believing (8/1 for same race) hasn’t got the all-expenses payout for that trip, having not won a key G1 this summer, but connections might consider supplementing for Ascot’s Champions Sprint if it doesn’t turn into a bog. Desperate Hero ran his best race yet from a good draw, while No Half Measures was the eyecatcher as easily the best performer of those drawn high. The latter would be of interest in the Champions Sprint given the negative bias he faced at Longchamp, not least as he is 1/1 over six furlongs, but he doesn’t have an entry.

Arc de Triomphe: Prix Vermeille form was given the finest of polishes here, with Bluestocking and Aventure leading the field home. The former may or may not be retired but is finished for the season. The latter ran the best race of her life and may still have more upside, but The AntePoster is not aware of any newsflow regarding her next movements. Los Angeles, who probably wasn’t favoured by having to make his own pace in the absence of anyone else prepared to take on that role, may yet reappear in the Champion Stakes, in which he would have a huge each-way chance at a big price (12/1) if over his Arc exertions. However, connections had previously mentioned the Breeders Cup Turf (despite the certainty of firm ground in California not being to his advantage), and it would be surprising if they were to do both. One to watch. Sosie is done for the season, which is slightly surprising, as the Arc ground was softer than he would have liked, and he would seem an obvious one for the Breeders Cup for owners who have a strong record there. Sevenna’s Knight ran a superb race for a horse who wants further, and will no doubt be seen out again in France over longer trips before the season is out. Zarakem ran well in sixth (an outsider tip of The AntePoster at 66/1) but the trip just taxed him on soft ground. He is considered a possible for the Champion Stakes at Ascot, for which he is the same price. The AntePoster will play him again if entered given his outstanding course and distance form. Fantastic Moon, who bizarrely was going to be withdrawn before the owner was reminded that it would cost a king’s ransom to pursue that course, will head east to either the Hong Kong Vase or the Japan Cup later in the year. A mooted Breeders Cup foray has been abandoned.

Opera: Bar her one blowout in the Musidora Stakes, Friendly Soul came into this an unbeaten filly, and ran her best race yet on ground that would have been plenty soft enough for this daughter of Kingman. Owner George Strawbridge is American, so it looks extremely likely that we will see her in the Breeders Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar (best 5/1), where her forward running style would give her a decent chance. Running Lion went off at a big price due to her inconsistency – her record for her last five runs reads 27281, with the two flops being last-place finishes – but ran terrifically here. The QEII doesn’t look the maddest idea given her Group 2 win at Ascot in Royal Ascot in June (albeit that was over the round course), nor does 40/1 look reflective of her chances in a race that looks quite open (disregarding hot favourite Charyn). However, in the aftermath connections mentioned the possibility of the Breeders Cup rather than Ascot. Sparkling Plenty was yet again given an exaggerated waiting ride, and was yet again the fastest horse home in the last three furlongs, but the penny just isn’t dropping that she needs to be ridden closer to the pace. Connections are toying between calling it a day for this season or taking her to Del Mar for the Fillies & Mares (12/1), where her ability would give her a big shout but her running strategy would again be a hindrance. Fallen Angel probably didn’t stay and might yet run at Ascot (QEII, 14/1). The two Ballydoyle filles, Content and Ylang Ylang, both underperformed, and surely Del Mar beckons next for one or both. They are 10/1 and 33/1 respectively for the Fillies & Mares. Content might be a better fit for the all-gender BC Turf (20/1), which looks a weak race this year. She might be cross-entered in both, which is a route Ballydoyle have often gone down before.

Foret: Ramatuelle had looked like a potential top-notcher over 7 furlongs in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, shooting clear of the pack over the Rowley Mile before being caught in the final yards. Having also failed to stay the mile trip at Royal Ascot, this was always the plan, and she won easily, followed home by a rock-solid yardstick in the form of Kinross. The Breeders Cup Mile at Del Mar is now the firm plan for the winner, who looks one of the key players in that race (4/1). The connections of Kinross had also mentioned going to the Breeders Cup again (he was a fast finishing third at Santa Anita back in 2022), but there was no mention of that in the aftermath of the Foret. Del Mar wouldn’t be ideal for his late-running style. Third-placed Beauvatier was left too much to do (or possibly didn’t have the pace to get involved earlier) but was the only horse to break 12 seconds in the final furlong. Connections are still seriously considering a tilt at the Champions Sprint at Ascot in ten days’ time, and there would be worse outsiders than this fellow at 20/1. Exxtra again ran well (was sixth the previous year) but looks just below top class. None of the others really appeal as ante-post plays going forward either, though it is difficult to forget Big Rock’s demolition job in the QEII last time. If connections revert to front-running tactics there, 25/1 would look too big for a repeat, but there is no newsflow on whether or not he will take up his engagement at Ascot. River Tiber had the very worst of the draw, so eighth was no disgrace after a long break for a stable that almost never have their horses primed to their best in such situations. He should have more in the locker based on his seasonal debut in the Irish 2000 Guineas, and surely a return to a mile beckons. Connections were hoping to take him to the Breeders Cup, but he won’t draw into the Mile on this season’s form. Perhaps they will roll the dice one last time in the QEII. If so, there have been many worse 150-1 shots to back.