Ascot's Long Distance Cup: Just a knocking good bet at 14/1

We believe an opportunity is knocking hard at the door for punters in the Long Distance Cup antepost betting market.

Quite literally.

Opportunity, for William Haggas and Wathnan Racing, at 14/1.

This relatively lightly-raced 4-year-old is hugely progressive, and failed by half a length to win the Ebor Handicap at York a month ago. That is one of the most competitive staying handicaps on the planet in the flat racing sphere, and for good measure Opportunity was giving lumps of weight away to every other horse that finished in the top ten.

What's more, the fourth and fifth from that race (Ascending and Beylerbeyi) duly finished second and third last week in the Doncaster Cup. That's a proper form stamp, as this pair were getting less of a weight break from dual Group 1 winner Caballo de Mar (winner of said Cup) than they were from Opportunity in the Ebor.

More to the point, the usual angle that gets us excited as antepost analysts looks to be as glaring as ever here, namely that a whole host of the horses quoted high up in the betting look unlikely to turn up.

Specifically, of those trading at a shorter price than Opportunity in the market:

Scandinavia (7/4) was said by Aidan O'Brien to potentially be finished for the season in the aftermath of a slightly laboured Irish St Leger win. That was his fifth long-distance contest of the season. He therefore may not run again, and if he does connections might be tempted by the Prix du Cadran on Arc weekend instead (they do of course have "previous" in this respect by sending Kyprios to France a few years ago, probably the most visually impressive staying performance The AntePoster has ever seen). Certainly it will be extraordinarily difficult for Opportunity to beat Scandinavia if the latter runs (the Ballydoyle inmate being rated 8lb superior on RPRs, 13lb superior by Timeform), but that participation is surely a huge question mark.

Jan Brueghel (2/1) looks to be a very likely runner, and made a decent comeback when third to Scandinavia in Ireland. He has crashed into (almost) co-favouritism as a result of the doubts over his stablemate, and is rated 1lb higher than Opportunity on RPRs and 5lb higher by Timeform. Very, very classy at his best but has not matched his most impressive form highs this year and it remains to be seen whether he can recapture his best.

Caballo de Mar (4/1) has the clear target of the Prix du Cadran, a gruelling test over 20 furlongs on Arc weekend. If enduring that it's inconceivable that he would run in the Long Distance Cup 13 days later, which makes 4/1 a completely barking mad price, although it is just possible a Scandinavia reroute to France might prompt a rethink by connections. Rated on a par with Opportunity (RPRs) but 2lb lower by Timeform.

Illinois (8/1) could turn up in this race (no newsflow of which we are aware) but may be acting as pacemaker for a stablemate if he does, and as a winner over 20 furlongs could potentially head to the Cadran instead. Rated inferior to Opportunity on both RPRs (1lb) and by Timeform (5lb), and may well not be the horse he once was (his top-rated performances were all recorded in 2025 or earlier). That said, he did run well when narrowly beaten in the Lonsdale Cup last time out.

Defiantly (10/1) was a brilliant winner of the G2 Prix Kegorlay, but that was a "Golden Ticket" for the Melbourne Cup and it seems more than likely that he will join Joseph O'Brien's impressive team for that race (is already favourite with one bookmaker). Rated on a par with Opportunity according to RPRs but 4lb lower by Timeform.

Queenstown (10/1): A stayer quite clearly in the form of his life, and a big player if he goes to the Long Distance Cup. However, newsflow in the aftermath of the Irish St Leger pointed this one to the Prix du Cadran. Rated on par with Opportunity on RPRs, but – rather bizarrely, we don't quite get it – 6lb inferior on Timeform ratings.

Summary: Of those above Opportunity in the betting, only Jan Brueghel and just possibly Illinois (who may be acting as former's pacemaker) look more likely than not to actually turn up in the Long Distance Cup.

By contrast, Opportunity is a lightly-raced, up-and-coming stayer who is clearly pointed to the race, and is crying out to be backed at 14/1.

He has to prove that he stays two miles, but even this question mark is more than factored into the current price.

Recommendation: Back Opportunity each-way at 14/1 to win the Long Distance Cup at Ascot racecourse on Saturday 17 October. Price available with Bet365 or William Hill. No one else is higher than 10/1, and while that is much skinnier he'll start shorter than that.