Breeder Cup Sprint: A N Other is very much in the building

Cherie DeVaux's colt Englishman is a truly exciting thoroughbred sprinter. One, you feel, that just might go on to become a legend of the dirt sprint division in the US.

No one can deny the potential is there. In his last two races, Englishman has ripped the opposition to shreds, recording speed figures rarely seen in any division of US dirt racing – and certainly not in the sprint category for many years.

On the Beyer speed scale, Englishman was assigned a figure of 115 for his Woody Stephens tour de force, following up with a 117 for the H. Allen Jerkens romp.

By comparison, both those numbers are higher than the peak speed figures run by some of the great dirt sprinters of the last decade: Roy H (111), Mitole (112), Elite Power (111). As far as we can ascertain, only an extraordinary – and very much an outlier – performance by Shancelot (121) back in 2019 ranks higher in the last decade.

And to cap it all, Englishman is only three, with just five runs under his belt. No wonder that many observers stateside are already viewing him as a "stone cold single" as they contemplate their betting strategies for the last Saturday in October.

Odd then, for us (Englishmen) to be recommending a bet against this colt in the Breeders Cup Sprint in five weeks' time. But we are, because there's another extraordinary sprinter turning up with a number of factors in his favour, and we think he is too big a price to upset the big favourite. Step forward Japan's very own T O Elvis at 7/2.

T O Elvis ran "only" a 108 Beyer in winning the Churchill Downs Stakes on the Kentucky Derby undercard back in May. But the time of 1:20.49 for this 7-furlong race was just as sensational on the clock as Englishman's Saratoga victories: a stakes record for the distance at that track and just 0.05 off the absolute track record set by Groupie Doll back in 2012. A monstrous performance by any metric.

What's more – and unlike the favourite for the BC Sprint – T O Elvis has a comprehensive body of work over the Sprint distance of six furlongs. Indeed, his previous four runs were all over that distance. All of those resulted in victories, and three of them were by margins of four lengths or more. In short, this an elite sprinter over six furlongs.... who just happens to have proved he can do it over seven too.

By contrast, Englishman has only run once over six furlongs. Impressive on that occasion, for sure, but let's not forget he was sent off at odds of 1/10 in an allowance race against a completely overmatched field on that occasion. Of course he could replicate his recent brilliance at Keeneland over six furlongs. But for the first time, he will be running against graded stakes-quality, 6-furlong specialists, many of whom will want to be forwardly placed right from the gate. And that's Englishman's style too.

So the Breeders Cup Sprint at Keeneland will be a very different test to his two very easy recent wins, which it's worth noting were both gained at the same racetrack (Saratoga). Will Englishman replicate those performances at another track, over a distant distance, against high-level six furlong horses for the first time, in a pace environment that is likely to be much fiercer?

Perhaps.

But inT O Elvis he will encounter a much more experienced, elite animal capable of sitting off any kind of pace (a long way off if that pace is hot, much closer if it's more moderate) with an unwavering ability to mow down allcomers in the stretch with his vicious late surge. At first glance that hold-up style might feel like a risky strategy over such a short distance, but the trend for the Breeders Cup shows it's the right one: Only three of the last ten winners of the BC Sprint have been in the lead turning into the home stretch. In short, this a race where Englishman's running style is rarely the pathway to victory.

Last but not least, we'll return to something we said earlier by way of praise but now flip it on its head. Englishman is only three years old. It's truly impressive what he has done in his last two races, but this colt has never faced his elders. Winners of the BC Sprint rarely come from the 3-year old cohort – there have been only three winners of this age category in the last 20 years, and none since Drefong back in 2016.

We are not confidently claiming that T O Elvis is the most likely winner of the Breeders Cup Sprint. We cede that Cherie DeVaux's 3-year-old deserves his place at the top of the antepost betting for this market. But to our eyes, the price gap between the pair is too wide.

Englishman may be the leader in the clubhouse, but there's a more attractive bet in that building.

Recommendation: Back T O Elvis at 7/2 to win the Breeders Cup Sprint at Keeneland racecourse on Saturday 31 October. Price available with Paddy Power and Skybet. Next best is 10/3 with William Hill and Betfred. The universal 3/1 is still acceptable.